Will Page
Review via The Financial Times
In “Tarzan Economics,” author Will Page draws inspiration from Jim Griffin’s 2009 observations regarding the music industry’s adaptation to disruption. Griffin emphasized that successful companies must continually move forward, much like Tarzan swinging from vine to vine. Having worked as a civil servant and then as chief economist at Spotify and PRS, Page extends his insights beyond the music realm, suggesting that the music industry was merely the first to confront significant digital challenges and subsequently adapt. Quoting management sage Peter Drucker, Page states, “The customer rarely buys what the company thinks it is selling.” He emphasizes the importance of reevaluating familiar beliefs about the market, making this book a vital read for anyone seeking new perspectives.
<p>In this issue:</p>
<ul><li><em>Markets are generally drifting</em></li><li><em>This week, U.S. assets are taking a backseat to global allocations</em></li></ul>
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-21-may">Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
<p>Historically, economists believed they had a solid grasp of the interplay between unemployment and inflation rates. The widely accepted theory suggested that higher inflation was correlated with lower unemployment, and vice versa. This perspective held true during the 1960s until the 1970s, when this assumption was challenged by a series of economic events.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-inflation-expectations-21-may-2021/#more-16072" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
* A Cease-fire has been announced between Israel and Hamas, momentarily pausing the 11-day conflict.
* The U.S. is proposing a minimum 15% global tax for multinational corporations.
* The U.S. Treasury seeks to require that all cryptocurrency transfers over $10,000 be reported to the IRS.
* Eurozone Composite PMI (a GDP proxy) reached a 39-month high in May.
* Private sector growth in the UK rose to its fastest pace in over two decades in May.
* Japan fell back into contraction in May according to PMI data.
* The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in April, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
* The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index shows that growth cooled in May but remains solid.
* U.S. jobless claims are on the decline, falling to a new pandemic low:
Recent data indicates that first-quarter growth has shown significant improvement, and we anticipate a similar trend for the upcoming second-quarter GDP report, set to be released in late July.
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-still-expected-to-accelerate-in-q2/#more-16066" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
* A ceasefire is anticipated soon in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
* Israel conducts further airstrikes in Gaza.
* U.S. and Russian diplomats meet prior to the Biden-Putin summit.
* President Biden waives sanctions on a Russian-German gas pipeline company.
* Defections from the GOP help pass a House inquiry into the Jan. 6 Capitol siege.
* Several GOP-led states plan to reduce unemployment benefits as jobless claims decrease.
* Fed officials discuss the possibility of lowering stimulus measures following April’s policy meeting.
* German producer prices have risen significantly to an annual rate of 5.2% in April.
* Gold prices have surged to their highest level since January:
As inflation concerns grow and commodity prices spike, the consumer price index has risen sharply beyond expectations in April. Surprisingly, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has not followed suit, maintaining its position without further increases.
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-19-may">Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
Navigating the macroeconomic landscape has become increasingly complex. This month alone, the government has released five crucial economic reports, each yielding markedly different outcomes from what was expected. It remains uncertain how long this trend of surprising results will persist, but the current data may create complications in interpreting economic trends.
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/beware-the-surge-in-economic-noise/#more-16060" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
* The Israel-Gaza conflict continues with no evident ceasefire in sight.
* China accuses the U.S. of escalating tensions as a warship navigates the Taiwan Strait.
* The world is facing multiple crises, warns UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon.
* Former Treasury Secretary Summers predicts that the Fed may soon need to raise interest rates.
* President Biden and the Treasury Secretary are working to promote a $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan.
* Is a 4% inflation rate the critical threshold triggering a decline in stock values?
* Chinese regulatory authorities tighten restrictions on cryptocurrency payments.
* U.S. housing starts sharply declined in April, while building permits saw a modest increase:
Recent weeks have seen a notable surge in high beta stocks, which have emerged as the top performers among US equity factors thus far in 2021, judging by a selection of ETF proxies as of May 17.
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/high-beta-stocks-top-us-equity-factor-returns-in-2021/#more-16054" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
The articles presented highlight the significant economic events and analyses shaping global markets. From geopolitical tensions to shifts in inflation and job claims, the landscape remains complicated and ever-changing. Staying informed on these developments is crucial for understanding potential implications for both markets and individual strategies going forward.
