The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

2026年7月5日
Estimated read time 8 min read
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Last week, most major asset classes, as represented by a selection of exchange-traded funds, experienced gains, with real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US leading the charge.

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        <p>* The US Senate is poised to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/07/us/politics/senate-china-semiconductors.html">pass</a> significant industrial policy legislation.<br/>* Signs of division among Democrats in the Senate could <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/557078-schumer-faces-cracks-in-democratic-unity">jeopardize</a> the party's legislative agenda.<br/>* Will Congress <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-g-7-deal-on-a-global-minimum-tax-for-companies-faces-hurdles-11623016756?mod=hp_lead_pos2">approve</a> the G-7 agreement on a global minimum tax?<br/>* Treasury Secretary Yellen <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/06/higher-interest-rates-would-be-good-for-the-country-treasury-secretary-yellen-says-.html">asserts</a> that increased rates would benefit the US economy.<br/>* China's imports <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-imports-grow-fastest-pace-decade-2021-06-07/">increased</a> at the fastest rate in a decade as of May.<br/>* US oil prices <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/06/investing/us-oil-prices/index.html">rose to $70 per barrel</a>, reaching this milestone for the first time in three years.<br/>* Researchers are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/science/covid-vaccine-boosters.html">examining</a> whether Covid-19 booster shots will be necessary.<br/>* US employment growth <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/06/04/jobs-report-may-hiring-impact-covid-cases-fall-states-reopen/7538488002/">picked up in May</a>, although it fell short of projections.<br/>* Real US Treasury yields measured through <a href="https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield">TIPS</a> remain significantly negative:</p>

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After a period of underwhelming performance, two of our three proprietary strategies delivered benchmark-beating returns last week, as of June 4. The third strategy equaled the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16), which maintains a consistent 16-fund opportunity set as shown in the table at the conclusion of this update.

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        <p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691214476/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0691214476&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkId=2310eec1d97825c7969aa105cdfad68e" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&amp;MarketPlace=US&amp;ASIN=0691214476&amp;ServiceVersion=20070822&amp;ID=AsinImage&amp;WS=1&amp;Format=_SL250_&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691214476/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0691214476&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkId=da9c6fd20dac256cdd28c88c85a4d6de" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work</a><br/>Jan Eeckhout<br/><strong><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/05/11/994856975/why-soaring-stocks-could-be-bad-news-for-the-economy">Review</a> via NPR</strong><br/>While the stock market has experienced its share of ups and downs, it has consistently reached historic peaks in recent years. For many, this trend indicates a thriving economy and robust retirement portfolios. However, economist Jan Eeckhout argues that this booming market signals deeper systemic issues within the economy. Despite benefiting personally from the stock surge, he contends that excessive profits driven by powerful corporations are undermining worker income and the overall economic landscape. This notion is the central argument in his upcoming book, *The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work*.</p>

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This week saw gains across various asset classes globally
Global asset allocation strategies continue to yield benefits for investors

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The topic of dollar weakness is prevalent this year, leading to projections about the currency’s potential loss of reserve status. Proponents of this viewpoint cite various indicators suggesting this shift may be imminent. However, a thorough examination of potential alternatives strongly indicates that the US dollar will maintain its pivotal role in global trade for the foreseeable future.

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        <p>* President Biden shows <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-latest-infrastructure-offer-1-trillion-11622725783?mod=hp_lead_pos6">readiness</a> to negotiate with Republican leaders on the infrastructure bill.<br/>* New York Fed’s president <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-williams-says-economy-far-from-levels-needed-to-pare-stimulus-11622753649">states</a> it’s premature to cut back on stimulus measures.<br/>* Concerns arise over whether the US economy is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/03/business/inflation-biden-infrastructure-jobs/index.html">at risk of overheating</a>.<br/>* Global economic growth showed signs of <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/842c441136dd495ca3b87fac76651706">acceleration</a> in May, according to PMI surveys.<br/>* US economic growth indicators <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1092ca7290b24f8880984fce9ba10698">improved</a> in May based on Composite PMI data.<br/>* Jobless claims in the US <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/weekly-jobless-claims.html">fell</a> below 400,000 for the first time during the pandemic.<br/>* The ISM Services PMI suggests <a href="https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/nmi/rob202105svcs.pdf">robust sector growth</a> in May.<br/>* US private employment growth <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-private-payrolls-increase-solidly-april-adp-2021-05-05/">accelerated</a> to a seven-month peak in May:</p>

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The risk-adjusted performance of the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to improve throughout May.

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        <p>* Opposition parties in Israel <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/02/middleeast/israel-coalition-deal-intl/index.html">reach an agreement</a> to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power.<br/>* The global employment recovery to pre-pandemic levels <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/02/business/pandemic-jobs-global-employment.html">is projected to take years</a>.<br/>* Congress is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-shortage-draws-attention-of-u-s-lawmakers-11622712602?mod=hp_lead_pos1">considering</a> new policies to address labor shortages.<br/>* The Federal Reserve is set to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/02/business/federal-reserve-corporate-assets-program-pandemic/index.html">wind down</a> its program for purchasing corporate assets.<br/>* A UN index shows that world food prices <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-03/global-food-prices-surge-to-highest-in-almost-a-decade-un-says?srnd=premium">increased</a> for the 12th consecutive month in May.<br/>* Speculation arises about whether oil prices <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/02/it-could-be-a-hot-summer-ahead-for-oil-prices.html">will continue to climb</a> this summer.<br/>* China's growth <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6aaea06d19504956813e9d93c4dd46c8">softened</a> in May, according to Composite PMI data, a proxy for GDP.<br/>* The economy is expanding at a moderate pace, as reported by the Fed’s Beige Book <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/02/beige-book-companies-are-paying-more-but-still-cant-find-workers.html">indicates</a>.<br/>* The CRB Commodity Index closed at a six-year high:</p>

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        <p>Emerging markets stocks are showing signs of vitality after a prolonged period of stagnation.</p>

The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO) experienced a significant surge over the past two days, concluding June 2 at its highest level since February. Does this indicate a risk-on sentiment for emerging markets?

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In summary, the recent market dynamics reveal a complex interplay between rising asset values and broader economic signals. As evidenced by the recent uptick in major asset classes and the performance of emerging markets, investors may want to stay attentive to shifts in policy and market trends in the coming weeks.

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