The 10-year Treasury yield saw a significant decline yesterday, plummeting to 1.37%, its lowest level since late February. This continued drop lends further weight to the argument that the reflation trade is losing momentum.
* Tropical Storm Elsa ravages the west coast of Florida.
* Nuclear negotiations falter as Iran begins producing enriched uranium.
* Reports of new computer hacking linked to Russia pose challenges for Biden.
* A US warship conducts drills in the Black Sea, an area of concern for Russia.
* North America records its hottest June ever.
* Will rising gasoline prices hinder the US economy?
* Can the winning streak for small-cap stocks persevere?
* Global growth dipped to a three-month low in June but remains robust.
* US economic growth slowed in June but continues to be impressive.
* US Services PMI declined more than anticipated in June, yet still indicates strong growth:
June saw a continued upward trajectory in risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI), as evidenced by the annualized Sharpe ratio (SR) over a rolling ten-year period based on monthly data.
* Southern Florida prepares for Tropical Storm Elsa.
* A new ransomware attack affects as many as 1,500 businesses.
* Chinese tech IPOs in the US face risks as Beijing tightens its regulations.
* Oil prices soar to a six-year high after OPEC+ cancels discussions.
* Hedge fund launches surged in Q1, reaching levels not seen since late 2017.
* Retail spending in the Eurozone increased more than anticipated in May.
* Investor confidence in Germany declined, accompanied by a retreat in factory orders.
* Job growth in the US picked up in June, achieving the largest increase in ten months:
Last week, beta risk continued to outperform our actively managed risk strategies. Although the margin was narrow, it has been sufficient to maintain the Global Beta 16 (G.B16) opportunity set in a leading position. This set signifies the active strategy’s marketplace (refer to the last table below for the list of funds).
Benjamin Ho
Review via NPR
In his new work, *Why Trust Matters: An Economist’s Guide to the Ties That Bind Us*, Benjamin Ho explores how the evolving story of our economy—and of humanity—centers around our ability to trust larger groups of strangers.
Humans, being inherently social, can only know and trust a limited number of individuals—approximately 150, according to British anthropologist and evolutionary psychologist Robin Dunbar. This phenomenon is called Dunbar’s number, which also explains why 150 has become a standard figure for military infantry units and the maximum number of friends most engage with on social media platforms like Facebook.
- Commodities, US stocks, and bonds made gains this week.
- Strategy benchmarks continue to rise.
<p><strong>Commodities led the charge this week:</strong> WisdomTree Commodity (GCC) dominated the performance list for the trading week ending July 2, standing out as the star for our 16-fund opportunity set that represents the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-2-july-2021/">major asset classes</a>. While other asset classes also saw gains, GCC's 2.2% weekly increase set it apart from the competition. <em>For detailed strategy rules and risk metrics, <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/etf-ps.definitions-1.pdf">see this summary.</a></em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-2-july">continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-2-july-2021/" title="6:05 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-02T18:05:01-04:00">July 2, 2021</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) resumed its upward trend in June, increasing to an annualized rate of 6.0%. This marks a slight rise from 5.9% in the previous month. This forecast reflects the long-term outlook for GMI’s returns relative to the “risk-free” rate, although it remains significantly below the historical realized risk premium based on trailing 10-year annualized returns. Continue reading
* 130 nations reach an agreement on a global minimum tax for corporations.
* US military withdrawal from Afghanistan is nearly complete.
* The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) optimizes growth projections for the US economy in 2021.
* Evidence indicating reliable inflation forecasting remains scarce.
* The Delta variant of coronavirus is surging throughout Asia.
* NYC office vacancies increase dramatically since the conclusion of 2020.
* US manufacturing growth decelerated in June, yet expansion remains vigorous.
* Manufacturers reported the highest price increase in 42 years for June.
* The IMF raises its 2021 economic growth forecast for the US to an impressive 7% gain.
* US unemployment claims dropped to a new pandemic low last week:
In summary, recent developments, from shifts in Treasury yields to a steep rise in commodity prices, are indicative of broader economic trends. As economic indicators fluctuate, stakeholders will need to remain vigilant in navigating the evolving landscape.
