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<p>During the trading week ending Friday, November 5, American stocks outperformed almost all major asset classes, according to a range of US-listed ETFs. The sole exception was commodities, which saw a decline.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-led-widespread-gains-for-global-markets-last-week/#more-16980" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-led-widespread-gains-for-global-markets-last-week/" title="7:05 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-08T07:05:36-05:00">November 8, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* The $1 trillion infrastructure bill <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/house-passes-bipartisan-infrastructure-bill-sends-it-to-biden.html">awaits President Biden’s signature</a><br/>* The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/07/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html">growth of Big Tech</a> appears unrelenting<br/>* Tensions in Iraq <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-religion-iran-elections-iraq-28fe31151ed74ca6f7ef313793765824">escalate</a> following a botched assassination attempt on the prime minister<br/>* Are the anti-viral medications from Pfizer and Merck for treating Covid-19 <a href="https://www.ynetnews.com/article/syegp11hpy">potential game changers?</a><br/>* China's economic growth is likely to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-07/china-trade-surplus-can-cushion-but-can-t-stop-economic-slowdown?srnd=economics-vp">continue its slowdown</a> despite achieving record trade surpluses<br/>* The crackdown on technology in China <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-reports-3-5-billion-loss-hit-by-chinas-tech-crackdown-11636354966?mod=hp_lead_pos1">leads</a> to a $3.5 billion quarterly loss for SoftBank<br/>* The US is poised to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/07/us-to-lift-international-travel-entry-ban-here-are-the-rules.html">lift</a> a nearly 20-month international travel ban<br/>* The UK’s trade agreement with the EU is at <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-59198125">risk of collapse</a> over issues concerning Northern Ireland<br/>* US payroll numbers <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-picks-up-october-unemployment-rate-falls-46-2021-11-05/">rose</a> significantly in October, marking the strongest increase in three months:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/payrolls.08nov2021.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16979" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/payrolls.08nov2021.png" alt="" width="819" height="512" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-8-november-2021/" title="5:59 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-08T05:59:16-05:00">November 8, 2021</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B097CW7FQJ/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B097CW7FQJ&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=9165f47cff97ad4a813dc15ae8b45809" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=B097CW7FQJ&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B097CW7FQJ/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B097CW7FQJ&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=f93ba2b68266b6da3c41b052a23bc2bc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Drift: Stopping America’s Slide to Socialism</a><br/>Kevin A. Hassett<br/><strong><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2021/11/01/transcript-drift-stopping-americas-slide-toward-socialism-with-author-kevin-hassett/">Q&A</a> with author via The Washington Post</strong><br/>Q: Let's discuss the premise of your book, which suggests that America is moving toward socialism. What evidence do you see for this claim? Despite having what appears to be the world's most dynamic capitalist economy, with recent growth above 6 percent, and low-interest rates encouraging investment, you're clearly concerned. Can you elaborate?<br/>A: Certainly. While we aren’t fully there yet, the critical observation lies in Joseph Schumpeter's predictions from the 20s. He envisioned an America that would prosper but also sow the seeds for the demise of its capitalist framework. His view aligns closely with today’s reality: as America becomes wealthier, more families send their children to colleges, which are increasingly becoming centers for socialist ideology.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-6-november-2021/#more-16951" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-6-november-2021/" title="7:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-06T07:34:52-04:00">November 6, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The US economy experienced a significant slowdown in the third quarter, according to last week’s initial gross domestic product (GDP) estimate. However, this isn't necessarily a cause for concern regarding Q4. Preliminary predictions indicate a potential rebound is in the works.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-looks-set-to-rebound-in-q4/#more-16972" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-looks-set-to-rebound-in-q4/" title="7:25 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-05T07:25:20-04:00">November 5, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* A House vote on infrastructure bills is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/moderates-balk-175-trln-biden-bill-tax-arbiter-says-revenues-fall-short-2021-11-04/">anticipated</a> today<br/>* Global food prices have surged to a ten-year high, as reported by the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59172665">UN</a><br/>* OPEC has rejected US requests for increased oil production, adhering to a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/04/opec-agrees-to-stick-to-oil-production-plan-defying-us-pressure.html">modest production plan</a><br/>* Could the transition away from carbon-heavy energy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/04/business/cop26-wall-street-pledges-fossil-fuels.html">hinder</a> economic recovery?<br/>* The US trade deficit reached a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/04/economy/trade-deficit/index.html">new record</a> in September, primarily due to declining exports<br/>* US productivity <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/04/economy/labor-productivity-third-quarter/index.html">dipped</a> to a 40-year low in Q3, likely due to temporary factors<br/>* Jobless claims in the US are <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/04/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html">continuing to decline</a>, reaching a new low since the pandemic:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/claims.05nov2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16969" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/claims.05nov2021.png" alt="" width="542" height="387" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-november-2021/" title="5:58 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-05T05:58:46-04:00">November 5, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The projected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) remains at over 4%, approximately half of its 10-year performance level.</p>
<p>Recent updates on long-term total return forecasts for GMI through October indicate that the benchmark's expected performance has risen slightly to a 4.4% total return, marginally above last month's forecast of 4.3%.</p>
<p><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-4-nov?justPublished=true">Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-4-nov-2021/" title="6:00 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-04T18:00:50-04:00">November 4, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The Federal Reserve has officially confirmed plans to begin tapering its bond-buying program, a move anticipated for months. However, according to Fed Chair Powell, significant steps towards interest rate increases are still a way off. This marks an initial step in transitioning to a post-pandemic policy framework.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/short-term-tips-and-junk-are-2021s-top-performing-bond-factors/#more-16965" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/short-term-tips-and-junk-are-2021s-top-performing-bond-factors/" title="7:32 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-04T07:32:04-04:00">November 4, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* The Federal Reserve has announced that it will <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/fed-decision-taper-timetable-as-it-starts-pulling-back-on-pandemic-era-economic-aid-.html">begin tapering</a> bond purchases this month<br/>* Fed Chair Powell provides <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/upshot/powell-fed-rates-inflation.html">no indications</a> of an imminent interest-rate hike<br/>* Is the Fed at risk of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/jerome-powell-fed-risk-inflation-overshoot-in-calling-full-employment?srnd=premium">making a policy error</a> by allowing inflation to increase?<br/>* The inflation discourse <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-debate-hangs-over-stock-markets-record-run-11636018200?mod=hp_lead_pos5">lingers</a> behind the current stock market rally<br/>* Private employment in the US <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/October/NER/NER-October-2021.aspx">increased</a> more than anticipated in October, according to ADP data<br/>* Eurozone growth <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c3c5a41ff2d4585b8d92767419b06ca">slowed</a> to a six-month low, as per PMI survey data<br/>* Unexpectedly, factory orders in the US <a href="https://kfgo.com/2021/11/03/u-s-factory-orders-unexpectedly-rise-in-september/">rose</a> in September<br/>* Activity in the US services sector <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-employment/u-s-private-payrolls-rise-strongly-in-october-adp-idUSKBN2HO1FU">soared</a> to an all-time high in October according to survey data<br/>* The yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rebounded to 1.60% as the Fed <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-dials-back-bond-purchases-plots-end-to-stimulus-by-june-11635962417?mod=hp_lead_pos1">reduces its bond purchases:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/tenyr.04nov2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16964" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/tenyr.04nov2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-november-2021/" title="6:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-04T06:18:54-04:00">November 4, 2021</time></a>
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<p>Eventually, the impressive ascent in the Sharpe ratio for the Global Market Index (GMI) reversed course in October. This dip signifies the first decrease in this widely-followed risk metric in eight months, as GMI encompasses a market-value-weighted portfolio of all major asset classes (excluding cash).</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2021-risk-profile/#more-16959" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2021-risk-profile/" title="6:52 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-03T06:52:49-04:00">November 3, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* Republicans <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/02/virginia-governor-race-polls-close-518625">celebrate a win</a> in the Virginia governor’s race<br/>* The GOP appears to have prospects for a win in the NJ governor’s race, which is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/02/new-jersey-governor-election-update-2021-518806">still too close to call</a><br/>* The Federal Reserve is expected to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-prepares-to-taper-but-markets-crave-more-insight-on-rate-rises-11635931804?mod=hp_lead_pos3">announce</a> its plans to taper its bond-buying program<br/>* Zillow has announced that it will <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-02/zillow-shuts-down-home-flipping-business-after-racking-up-losses?srnd=premium">cease its house-flipping operations</a> after facing model failures<br/>* China's service sector reported <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/69b51a25e49d4a20bd4e001c85b705eb">solid growth</a> for October according to PMI data<br/>* Global Manufacturing PMI remained stable in October, reflecting <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bc75b00489df461ea6c512a625b4bb27">moderate expansion</a><br/>* The price of regular gasoline in the US has reached a seven-year high of $2.45 per gallon:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gas.03nov2021.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16958" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/gas.03nov2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-november-2021/" title="6:14 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-11-03T06:14:05-04:00">November 3, 2021</time></a>
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