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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B097RL8W37/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B097RL8W37&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=367543b389ad58c82f551f6b52b5b40c" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=B097RL8W37&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B097RL8W37/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B097RL8W37&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=4f8a577fc33fe068f283b3a4655039f5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Allocator’s Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification</a><br/>Phil Huber<br/><strong><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/137">Interview</a> with the author via Morningstar</strong><br/>This week, we welcome Phil Huber as our guest. He serves as the Chief Investment Officer at Savant Wealth Management, a fee-only registered investment advisory firm. Huber previously worked at Huber Financial Advisors, which Savant acquired in 2020. Actively engaged in the financial blogosphere, Huber shares insights on his blog, bpsandpieces.com. He holds a bachelor's degree in finance from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and is a Certified Financial Planner and Chartered Financial Analyst. Additionally, he recently published a book titled, *The Allocator’s Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification.*</p>
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<p><span style="color: #800000;"><strong><a style="color: #800000;" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3948898">Introducing the Cryptocurrency VIX: CVIX</a></strong></span><br/>Yosef Bonaparte (University of Colorado at Denver)<br/><strong>October 25, 2021</strong><br/><em>This paper presents both a theoretical and empirical framework for a Cryptocurrency version of VIX, termed CVIX (Crypto VIX). This model captures cryptocurrency risk and fear 30 days into the future. Our methodology takes into account both idiosyncratic and systematic crypto risks, distinguishing it from the options-implied volatility model created by the CBOE for the S&P Volatility Index (VIX). In backtesting, our CVIX achieved an impressive accuracy of over 89% in predicting 30-day forward realized cryptocurrency volatility. When applied to the S&P index, it projected 30-day forward realized S&P volatility with a remarkable 91.8% accuracy, while VIX only managed 63.4%. This framework surpasses the options-based VIX by effectively accounting for idiosyncratic risk, providing a more comprehensive market representation.</em></p>
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<p>* A highly mutable Covid-19 variant was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/25/world/covid-variant-south-africa-immune-evasion-transmissibility/index.html">identified</a> in South Africa.<br/>* New fears surrounding the variant have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/26/new-covid-variant-roils-global-markets-with-oil-sinking-5percent.html">impact on global markets</a> as of Friday.<br/>* Flights from Europe and Asia to Southern Africa have been <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/uk-suspends-flights-to-six-african-countries-as-new-covid-variant-raises-alarms.html">suspended</a> due to the emerging Covid variant.<br/>* Money markets are seeing a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-26/traders-rush-to-unwind-rate-hike-bets-as-new-covid-fears-spread?srnd=economics-vp">reversal</a> in rate-hike bets in response to the new coronavirus concerns.<br/>* Beijing is <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-asks-didi-delist-u-025036833.html">pressuring</a> its ride-sharing company, Didi, to delist from the US.<br/>* The Fed is poised to increase rates if inflation persists, as indicated by the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-november-meeting.html">minutes from its meeting</a>.<br/>* The yield on the 10-year US Treasury experienced a sharp decline in early trading on Friday:</p>
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Let the celebrations and joy commence!
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The economic recoveries typically give rise to bull markets in equities, but this current resurgence has surprised many.
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<p>* Major energy-consuming nations are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/energy/asia-uk-strategic-oil-reserves/index.html">coordinating</a> the release of their oil reserves.<br/>* Russia and Ukraine have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-conducts-black-sea-military-drills-with-aircraft-ships-ifax-2021-11-24/">conducted</a> military drills amid escalating tensions with the EU and the US.<br/>* The US has extended an invitation to Taiwan for a democracy summit, which <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/biden-administration-invites-taiwan-to-its-summit-for-democracy.html">could provoke</a> a response from China.<br/>* Germany is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/germany-considers-a-full-covid-lockdown-and-mandatory-vaccines.html">considering</a> implementing a full lockdown and mandatory vaccination.<br/>* Rising inflation is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-24/-goldilocks-is-ending-big-investors-size-up-inflation-fallout?srnd=economics-vp">prompting</a> major investors to reevaluate their portfolio strategies.<br/>* Turkey’s increasingly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/turkey-uncertainty-leaves-little-appeal-for-investors-strategist-says.html">unpredictable</a> policies are discouraging investment.<br/>* Apple has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/tech/apple-nso-spyware-lawsuit/index.html">filed a lawsuit</a> against an Israeli spyware company to prevent it from accessing its devices.<br/>* Japan’s economy has shown <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e389525ec39a4bb9866db28d4f689384">growth</a> for the second consecutive month as indicated by PMI data.<br/>* US economic growth has <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c4f8600b63124921b109fba93bf6d523">slowed</a> in November but remains strong according to PMI data:</p>
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Jerome Powell has emerged triumphant in the political battle that nearly jeopardized his reappointment as chair of the Federal Reserve. However, the economic challenges that lie ahead will likely present a much greater test.
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<p>* President Biden has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/22/biden-picks-jerome-powell-to-lead-the-fed-for-a-second-term-as-the-us-battles-covid-and-inflation.html">nominated</a> Jerome Powell for a second term as the Fed chair.<br/>* New economic challenges <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powell-will-face-an-utterly-different-economy-in-a-second-term-11637590207">await Powell</a> in his upcoming tenure.<br/>* The US is set to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-set-unveil-emergency-oil-release-bid-fight-high-prices-2021-11-23/">announce</a> the release of oil from its strategic reserves.<br/>* The Turkish lira has plummeted as President Erdogan <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/23/turkish-lira-plummets-to-historic-low-after-erdogan-sparks-selloff-.html">promises</a> further rate cuts amid surging inflation.<br/>* Economic growth in the Eurozone has <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/122a04ae1ea44aca97b8a7b8a74083fa">picked up</a> in November according to PMI data.<br/>* Input inflation in the UK has reached a <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fc59a2c7a5d94a059038ca79dfcb69ee">new record high</a> based on PMI data.<br/>* The increasing rate of college attendance among women compared to men is raising questions about its impact on the economy.<br/>* Existing home sales in the US have <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/22/home-sales-rose-in-october-as-investors-rushed-into-the-market.html">risen</a> to a nine-month high for October.<br/>* The US economy has shown a <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index">significant rebound</a> in October, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index:</p>
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Throughout the week ending November 19, US bonds showed a slight uptick, but major asset classes experienced losses.
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<p>* A surge in US Covid-19 cases <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/22/covid-surge-winter-523109">indicates</a> a potential holiday increase.<br/>* US intelligence reports <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-21/u-s-intel-shows-russian-plans-for-potential-ukraine-invasion?srnd=premium">suggest</a> Russia is preparing for possible action in Ukraine.<br/>* Protests <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/21/europe/europe-lockdown-protests-violence-intl/index.html">escalated</a> in Europe over new Covid-19 measures.<br/>* The migrant crisis at the EU-Belarus border may worsen, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-says-belarus-keeps-bringing-migrants-its-border-2021-11-21/">warned</a> by Poland’s Prime Minister.<br/>* Japan is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/first-japan-considers-release-oil-reserves-after-us-request-sources-2021-11-22/">drafting</a> a proposal to release crude oil reserves to mitigate rising prices.<br/>* Supply chain disruptions <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chain-problems-show-signs-of-easing-11637496002?mod=hp_lead_pos1">may be showing signs of improvement</a>, but labor shortages are expected to continue.<br/>* Inflation is likely driven by the pandemic rather than excessive consumer spending.<br/>* The yield curve between 10-year and 2-year US bonds is nearing a four-month low:</p>
