The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

2026年6月30日
Estimated read time 11 min read
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        <p>* Relations between the US and China <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/23/bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge-inflames-u-s-china-relations-00034588">have become tense</a> following Biden's statements regarding Taiwan<br/>* The direction of US trade policy towards China <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/business/economy/china-trade-tariffs-biden.html">remains ambiguous</a><br/>* The European Union's ban on Russian oil imports is <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/eu-oil-embargo-days-ukraine-isolation-drives-russia-closer-china-3518033">anticipated</a> shortly<br/>* The Eurozone experienced ‘solid’ growth in May as indicated by data from the <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bc097909c30948a2aa6cdfc7f06a4db5">PMI Composite Index</a><br/>* The Chief of the European Central Bank <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-24/lagarde-says-ecb-won-t-rush-as-consensus-shuns-half-point-hike?srnd=economics-vp">states</a> there is no urgency to tighten monetary policy<br/>* The Great Resignation appears to be ongoing, according to a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/great-resignation-to-continue-one-in-five-likely-to-switch-jobs-pwc.html">recent global survey</a><br/>* Could Spain be the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/spain-paints-itself-as-the-answer-to-europes-russian-energy-problem.html">solution</a> to Europe’s energy challenges from Russia?<br/>* UK private sector growth has <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/00c0cc00756e401abf6bf7bc610f01da">slowed</a> to its lowest rate since winter 2021<br/>* US growth <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/05/23/chicago-fed-index-suggests-economic-growth-increased-in-april">remained strong</a> in April according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index:</p>

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Following a period of significant downturns, global markets generally showed improvement during the trading week ending Friday, May 20, as indicated by various ETFs. The notable exceptions were US stocks and real estate investment trusts, which experienced considerable declines.

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        <p>* President Biden <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html">asserts</a> that the US would intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan, yet…<br/>* The White House <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-23/biden-says-us-military-will-defend-taiwan-from-any-china-attack?srnd=premium">clarifies</a> Biden’s statements regarding US support for Taiwan<br/>* The US <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/us-announces-major-asia-economic-deal-in-effort-to-boost-profile-counter-china.html">reveals</a> a significant economic agreement for Asia to counteract China<br/>* What are Turkey’s reasons for <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/why-turkey-doesnt-want-sweden-finland-to-join-nato.html">blocking</a> NATO membership for Finland and Sweden?<br/>* Shadow banking presents a growing <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d22ec352-a4a4-4f4c-832a-cb05af5110f1">risk</a> to the global economy<br/>* The US economy is in a ‘transition’ phase, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/22/inflation-economy-deese-biden-white-house-00034263">according to</a> the White House economic adviser<br/>* Treasury yields <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bonds-descent-stalls-amid-stock-turmoil-11653244412?mod=hp_lead_pos3">have stabilized</a> as bond demand increases amid economic anxieties<br/>* Is the early 2000s dot-com crash <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/looking-lot-dot-com-crash-110000945.html">repeating itself?</a><br/>* The era of unrestricted data flow is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/technology/data-privacy-laws.html">coming to an end</a><br/>* The US Q2 GDP is still projected to recover according to the Atlanta Fed’s <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">GDPNow estimate:</a></p>

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        <p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fragile-Futures-Uncertain-Economics-Disasters/dp/1009100122?crid=3B4WWXAS6W7ID&amp;keywords=%E2%97%8F+Fragile+Futures%3A+The+Uncertain+Economics+of+Disasters%2C+Pandemics%2C+and+Climate+Change&amp;qid=1653058397&amp;sprefix=fragile+futures+the+uncertain+economics+of+disasters%2C+pandemics%2C+and+climate+change%2Caps%2C650&amp;sr=8-1&amp;linkCode=li3&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkId=e7a71305dc7ab1d0fa745ebfbb4735b1&amp;language=en_US&amp;ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&amp;ASIN=1009100122&amp;Format=_SL250_&amp;ID=AsinImage&amp;MarketPlace=US&amp;ServiceVersion=20070822&amp;WS=1&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&amp;language=en_US&amp;l=li3&amp;o=1&amp;a=1009100122" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/3NodzWb">Fragile Futures: The Uncertain Economics of Disasters, Pandemics, and Climate Change</a><br/>Vito Tanzi<br/><strong><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/fragile-futures/4D094AB53E822EE500A025205527CB22#fndtn-information">Summary</a> via publisher (Cambridge U. Press)</strong><br/>This book revisits a distinction made in 1921 by economists Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes between statistically predictable events (‘risks’) and unpredictable ones (‘uncertainties’). Governments often disregard the latter, viewing issues like pandemics, natural disasters, and climate change as uncontrollable Acts of God. Consequently, there is minimal preparation for potential future catastrophes. Our interconnected and globalized society requires a more robust and coordinated governmental response to uncertain future events. This book advocates for a broader governmental role globally in addressing these crises while striving to minimize economic inequalities.</p>

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<div class="entry-content"> * President Biden <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-technology-texas-south-korea-a8add64e1c15c4eb413b6f236828d2e2">embarks</a> on his Asia trip in South Korea, highlighting technology and global issues * Canada <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61517729">prohibits</a> Huawei and ZTE from its 5G networks * The US housing market is ‘susceptible’ to price adjustments, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-is-looking-increasingly-vulnerable-with-a-price-correction-possible-ing-162951325.html">according to</a> ING economist * China is <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3178435/china-holds-one-year-benchmark-lending-rate-mortgage">planning</a> rate reductions after lowering mortgage rates to stimulate the economy * Inflation is <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f1982c30-f1e4-4e09-9ddc-b1725f0ab3da">impacting</a> the retail sector as further Fed rate increases approach * Japan’s inflation has hit a <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/japan-inflation-april-hits-seven-year-high-2694741">seven-year peak</a> in April * US existing home sales <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/homes/us-existing-home-sales-april/index.html">declined</a> for the third consecutive month in April * The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index reflects a <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/philadelphia-feds-manufacturing-gauge-falls-to-lowest-reading-in-two-years-11652964534">notable slowdown</a> in growth in May * US jobless claims <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/jobless-claims-in-us-climb-to-highest-level-since-january">increased</a> to the highest level since January:

<div class="entry-content"> Markets operate in cycles, making it essential to pay attention to the broader trends for effective portfolio rebalancing and risk management. Numerous methods are available to monitor these overarching movements. One insightful approach is observing the price ratios of specific investment themes.

<div class="entry-content"> * Will the US-led <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/us/politics/russia-ukraine-oil-sanctions.html">campaign</a> effectively sabotage Russia’s oil industry? * The EU <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5d95b294-280f-4b38-9d23-70035e077392">plans</a> to increase coal usage to decrease dependence on Russian gas * The global economic outlook is ‘difficult and unpredictable,’ <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-inflation-slowing-growth-raise-risk-of-global-downturn-11652908756">according to</a> the US Treasury Secretary * ‘Alarming scenarios are emerging over Taiwan’ warns the US regarding China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/china-warns-us-a-dangerous-situation-is-forming-over-taiwan">tensions</a> * Scarcity of goods is creating a new <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/global-economy-loses-1-6-trillion-as-world-struggles-to-avoid-a-new-cold-war?srnd=economics-vp">fault line in the global economy</a> * Earnings <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/18/1099822457/stocks-sink-target-walmart-retailers-inflation-federal-reserve-economy">warnings</a> from retailers add pressure on US stocks * Almost 60% of CEOs <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/57-ceos-predict-us-will-enter-recession-business-conditions-worsen-3512204">predict</a> a US recession soon * Some analysts believe concerns over a potential US recession are exaggerated, as suggested by <a href="https://think.ing.com/articles/watch-why-inflation-led-recession-fears-in-the-states-are-overdone/">ING’s chief international economist</a> * US home construction <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-building-permits-dive-april-housing-starts-fall-2022-05-18/">declined</a> in April, with permits reaching a five-month low:

<div class="entry-content"> * Sweden and Finland officially <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-and-politics-sweden-recep-tayyip-erdogan-bb85591c4cf0335cc053faccce26df32">apply</a> to join NATO * Fed Chair Powell <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/powell-says-the-fed-will-not-hesitate-to-keep-raising-rates-until-inflation-comes-down.html">reiterates</a> that interest rates will continue to rise until inflation is under control * Europe races against the clock to secure alternatives to Russian energy amid a rapidly approaching winter, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-africa-government-and-politics-middle-east-61d000b572a2a5a078ca3372ea9a6034">a challenge</a> for the continent * Significant climate change indicators reached unprecedented levels in 2021, as reported by the UN <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/climate-change-indicators-hit-record-highs-2021-un-3511853">study</a> * In Britain, consumer inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/uk-inflation-jumps-to-40-year-high-of-9percent-as-food-and-energy-prices-spiral.html">reached</a> a historic rate of 9% in April * Central banks are now focused on identifying neutral rates to manage inflation effectively <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d2417703-10d3-4845-82fa-42616832444b">as they navigate</a> these rapid changes * The UK \[is poised to \]<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/brexit-uk-confirms-plans-to-make-changes-to-northern-ireland-protocol.html">revise</a> its trading agreements with Northern Ireland, potentially sparking trade war concerns with the EU * US industrial production <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-industrial-production-picked-up-pace-in-april-beating-expectations-271652794682">increased</a> in April, surpassing estimates * Homebuilder confidence in the US <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/home-builder-sentiment-falls-to-2-year-low-on-declining-demand-rising-costs.html">has dropped</a> to its lowest level in two years as demand wanes * US retail sales <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/17/retail-sales-april-2022-up-0point9percent-vs-1point0percent-estimate.html">increased</a> for the fourth consecutive month in April: