* House Speaker McCarthy reveals a debt-limit proposal
* Treasury Secretary Yellen will advocate for improved US-China relations in today’s speech
* New York Fed president expresses his backing for another interest rate increase
* Climate scientists predict possible record-breaking temperatures for 2023
* Bank of America’s CEO forecasts a mild upcoming recession
* According to the Fed’s Beige Book, businesses report facing greater challenges in securing credit, as noted.
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rebounds, reaching a 5-week high:
In yesterday’s article, I examined my thoughts on the overarching outlook regarding the potential risks linked to the impending debt-ceiling clash in Washington. To further this discussion, I will delve into the details in order to gain a clearer understanding of how this potential crisis may unfold.
* Atlanta Fed’s Bostic: anticipates one more rate hike, followed by a prolonged hold
* China’s decreasing population has implications for the global economy
* The world’s first tax on imports based on greenhouse gas emissions was approved by EU lawmakers
* Approximately 27% of Americans approaching retirement have no savings
* Meta plans to initiate another wave of layoffs at Facebook and Instagram
* Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates a solid 2.5% growth for Q1 in the US
* US housing starts declined in March, nearing a three-year low:
Understanding the trajectory of this situation relies heavily on political calculations. In essence, predicting how the complicated path ahead will evolve is almost as challenging as attempting to catch fish in a barrel.
* House Speaker McCarthy details his plan for a vote on the debt limit and spending cuts
* A study reveals that hedging interest-rate risk is uncommon within the banking sector
* China’s economic growth accelerated in the first quarter
* Survey indicates that fund managers are the most underweight in stocks since 2009, as reported
* Google CEO suggests that AI will influence “every product of every company,” as predicted
* It’s still premature to speculate on the US dollar’s future as the world’s reserve currency
* US homebuilder sentiment rose slightly in April but remains below the neutral mark of 50
* The NY Fed Manufacturing Index rebounded in April, indicating growth for the first time in five months:
Is the prolonged drought in relative returns for foreign stocks compared to US shares finally beginning to wane? The suggestion becomes more plausible as equities in developed markets outside the US keep climbing.
* The US and its allies are deliberating on how to lessen economic ties with China
* GOP House Speaker McCarthy plans to advocate spending cuts on Wall Street
* Democratic senators are pushing for a mandated House vote on increasing the debt limit
* Treasury Secretary Yellen indicates that banks might impose stricter lending standards, as stated
* A survey anticipates that the ECB will elevate the deposit rate to a 3.75% peak by July as expected
* ECB head expresses strong confidence that the US will not default on its debt
* Google is reportedly developing an AI-driven search engine to compete with rivals
* Major banks reported a rise in revenue and profits for the first quarter
* A slump in US retail spending deepens, as noted in March:
Rob Verchick
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
One morning in Miami Beach, an unexpected visitor appeared in a luxury condominium complex’s parking garage: an octopus. This amusing image quickly went viral, but it symbolizes the disruptive effects that climate change has already imposed on our lives and the adjustments we will necessity. Rob Verchick investigates methods to manage the risks we can no longer evade, outlining options as we confront climate breakdown. While diminishing carbon dioxide emissions is crucial, adapting to the damage that has already transpired is equally important. Verchick discusses what resilience entails in practice, from early humans on the savannah to contemporary shop owners and urban planners.
The 10-year Treasury rate is continuing to trade significantly above CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value estimate; however, the period of a large premium appears to be dwindling. As evidence mounts that inflation is easing, along with a sharply negative money supply on a rolling one-year basis and the economy facing tougher challenges, the likelihood is increasing that the substantial gap between the current 10-year yield and our fair-value estimate will close.
* Q1 earnings for the S&P 500 decreased by nearly 7%, as estimated by FactSet
* Banks are currently suffering losses on mortgages due to the sharp increase in interest rates
* China’s oil imports soared to their highest level in nearly three years
* Senate Leader Schumer is advocating for regulations regarding artificial intelligence technology
* Jobless claims in the US increased for the first time in three weeks
* US wholesale prices declined in March, signaling a further easing of inflationary pressures:
