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<p>As of July 21, American stocks are leading the pack among <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-june-2023-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> this year, according to several ETF proxies. Although markets are generally thriving in 2023, a range of risk factors may challenge the current bull market in the latter half of the year.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-lead-global-markets-in-2023-as-various-risks-simmer/#more-20551" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-lead-global-markets-in-2023-as-various-risks-simmer/" title="7:15 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-24T07:15:25-04:00">July 24, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* A “momentous week” <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/a-momentous-week-ahead-as-the-fed-the-ecb-and-the-bank-of-japan-reach-a-pivotal-point.html">ahead</a> for the Fed and other central banks<br />
* The Fed <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-fed-isnt-ready-to-declare-victory-on-inflation-e882b4d9?mod=hp_lead_pos1">is not declaring victory</a> over inflation just yet<br />
* Positive surprises in Q2 earnings for S&P 500 companies <a href="https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-21-2023">align with recent averages</a><br />
* The long-term surge in US home prices may be nearing an end: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/10-years-of-rally-in-us-house-prices-could-end-says-robert-shiller.html">Professor Robert Shiller</a><br />
* The Eurozone economy <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3b7cae66963d47798b88889727023fd3">contracts</a> at its steepest rate in eight months, according to a PMI survey<br />
* Is the regional banking crisis truly over? <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/is-the-regional-banking-crisis-really-over-now-investors-think-so-115711905.html">Investors seem to think so.</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/kre.24jul2023.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20549" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/kre.24jul2023.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-july-2023/#more-20548" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-july-2023/" title="6:04 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-24T06:04:16-04:00">July 24, 2023</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/You-Will-Own-Nothing-Financial/dp/0063304937?crid=ZFRXO32XX2D3&keywords=You+Will+Own+Nothing&qid=1689864887&s=books&sprefix=you+will+own+nothing%2Cstripbooks%2C104&sr=1-1&linkCode=li2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=bcb9101de9777b4299404dca3a079736&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=0063304937&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=0063304937" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0" />● <a href="https://amzn.to/44Qznm6">You Will Own Nothing: Your War with a New Financial World Order and How to Fight Back</a><br />Carol Roth<br /><strong><a href="https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/you-will-own-nothing-and-be-happy-carol-roth/">Interview</a> with the author via Hidden Forces</strong><br />In her book, Carol argues that we stand on the brink of a new financial world order that could drastically alter the futures of hundreds of millions, if not billions, in the Western world. She explores how this shift is being facilitated by international organizations, governments, and multinational corporations. The latter part of the episode delves into the technological, cultural, and spiritual dynamics that are awakening people. This discussion also aims to help listeners distinguish between fear-driven media narratives and credible information, while sharing actionable strategies for regaining control over finances and lives.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-22-july-2023/#more-20531" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-22-july-2023/" title="3:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-22T03:29:00-04:00">July 22, 2023</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong><a style="color: #ff0000;" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4499082">Betting on War? Oil Prices, Stock Returns, and Extreme Geopolitical Events</a></strong></span><br />Knut Nygaard (Oslo Metropolitan University) and L.Q. Sørensen (Storebrand Asset Management)<br /><strong>July 2023</strong><br /><em>This study reveals that the capability of oil price fluctuations to forecast stock returns is primarily confined to five major geopolitical crises: the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the 2003 Iraq invasion, the 1990/91 Persian Gulf War, the 1986 OPEC market collapse, and the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict. In a hypothetical scenario where these incidents never occurred, the relevant statistics dropped significantly—by an average of 75% compared to previous findings. Our research also indicates that trading strategies based on oil price movements often yield insignificant excess returns, challenging earlier conclusions. Such findings illustrate that a factor identified as significant in a time series analysis doesn’t always serve as a reliable market-timing indicator.</em></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-21-july-2023-forecasting-markets/#more-20536" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-21-july-2023-forecasting-markets/" title="7:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-21T07:33:59-04:00">July 21, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* US Treasury Secretary <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/us-treasurys-yellen-sees-vietnam-023948467.html">visits</a> Vietnam to strengthen supply chain 'friendshoring'<br />
* A damaged Pfizer facility will <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tornado-pfizer-plant-north-carolina-damage-long-term-medicine-shortages/">likely result in long-term medicine shortages</a><br />
* The US Leading Economic Index continues to signal <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">warnings</a> for the economy<br />
* The Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/fed-officially-launches-new-fednow-instant-payments-service.html">launches</a> instant payment services<br />
* US existing home sales <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/june-home-sales-drop-to-the-slowest-pace-in-14-years.html">decreased</a> in June to their slowest rate in 14 years<br />
* The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index still reflects <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/manufacturing-business-outlook-survey">weak sector activity in July</a><br />
* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-2023-07-20/">dropped</a> last week, remaining near multi-decade lows:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/claims.21jul2023.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20544" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/claims.21jul2023.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-july-2023/#more-20545" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-july-2023/" title="6:44 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-21T06:44:45-04:00">July 21, 2023</time></a>
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<p>Are we approaching peak yields for risk assets? This possibility seems increasingly plausible these days.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-20-july-2023/#more-20541" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/desperately-seeking-yield-20-july-2023/" title="7:11 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-20T07:11:29-04:00">July 20, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* The final Fed rate hike is expected, according to a new Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-20/fed-seen-hiking-final-time-to-a-22-year-peak-in-economist-survey?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg">survey</a> of economists<br />
* Recession risks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/business/economy/economy-soft-landing.html">still appear low</a> for the US economic outlook<br />
* Just 1% of US homes have changed hands in the first half of 2023, marking the lowest rate in a decade<br />
* Net inflows into Chinese stocks <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8a3764af-e7f2-45a5-bcd4-83da598987c0">have dropped</a> below those of other Asian markets<br />
* China’s reliance on coal for energy has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/business/china-coal-climate-change.html">intensified</a><br />
* TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/20/tsmc-q2-earnings.html">reported</a> a 10% decline in Q2 profits compared to the previous year<br />
* US housing starts <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/homes/new-home-starts-june/index.html">fell</a> more than expected in June:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/starts.19jul2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20538" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/starts.19jul2023.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-july-2023/#more-20537" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-july-2023/" title="5:58 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-20T05:58:49-04:00">July 20, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* Intense heat <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/extreme-heat-waves-across-the-world-photos-7cc1544d?mod=hp_lead_pos7">affects</a> vast regions of the US, Europe, and Asia<br />
* Will deflation in China soon be <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-producer-deflation-could-crush-smaller-manufacturers-around-world-3705558">transferred</a> to the rest of the globe?<br />
* The downturn in investment banking and trading has ‘bottomed out’, according to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-18/gorman-says-investment-banking-trading-downturn-has-bottomed#xj4y7vzkg">Morgan Stanley's CEO</a><br />
* US GDP growth is expected to increase in Q2, based on the Atlanta Fed’s <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">GDPNow model</a><br />
* A wave of corporate bankruptcies is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-18/billions-in-corporate-debt-wave-of-bankruptcies-threatens-global-economy?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg">looming</a> as easy monetary policy comes to an end<br />
* US homebuilder sentiment <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/homebuilder-confidence-reaches-highest-level-since-last-june-7562288">rises in July,</a> reaching its highest point since June 2022<br />
* US industrial output <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-production-decreased-june-134330936.html">decreased</a> for the second consecutive month in June<br />
* US retail sales <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-18/us-retail-sales-edge-higher-in-mixed-picture-of-consumer-demand?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner">increased</a> for the third consecutive month, indicating a slow but steady spending trend:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/retail.19jun2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20533" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/retail.19jun2023.png" alt="" width="1200" height="675" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-july-2023/#more-20532" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-july-2023/" title="7:02 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-19T07:02:53-04:00">July 19, 2023</time></a>
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<p>A well-known saying on Wall Street holds that bull markets ascend a “wall of worry.” With that in mind, there is no shortage of genuine and potential threats lurking in the background. However, recent trends suggest that investor confidence remains robust, as evidenced by global market analyses indicating a strengthened risk-on sentiment.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-signals-strengthen-in-several-market-trend-profiles/#more-20524" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-signals-strengthen-in-several-market-trend-profiles/" title="7:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-18T07:34:37-04:00">July 18, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* Economists warn that victory over inflation is not yet imminent, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/17/the-war-against-inflation-is-a-long-way-away-from-being-won.html">stating</a> that several challenges remain<br />
* Teamsters' president <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4101107-teamsters-chief-asks-white-house-not-to-intervene-if-ups-workers-strike/">requests</a> the White House to refrain from intervening in a potential UPS strike<br />
* Both <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-kolanovic-sees-modestly-wider-192207426.html">JP Morgan</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/18/goldman-sachs-cuts-odds-of-a-us-recession-in-the-next-year.html">Goldman Sachs</a> reduce their forecasts for US recession odds<br />
* US officials believe that slower growth in China is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/07/17/china-gdp-world-economy">not a primary risk</a> for the US economy<br />
* Russia ramps up its economic warfare with the West, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/17/business/russia-danone-carlsberg-control/index.html">including the seizure of company assets</a> from two foreign firms<br />
* CNN's Money Fear and Greed index <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/07/33260773/fear-greed-index-remains-in-extreme-greed-zone-after-dow-gains-for-sixth-consecutive-session">remains in the "Extreme Greed" zone</a> as of Monday<br />
* The recession in the US housing market <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/07/17/housing-market-recession/">seems to be fading</a><br />
* The US chip industry <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-chip-lobby-presses-biden-refrain-further-china-curbs-2023-07-17/">is urging Biden</a> to avoid imposing stricter restrictions on China</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/smh.18jul2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20523" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/smh.18jul2023.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-july-2023/#more-20521" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-july-2023/" title="6:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-07-18T06:29:33-04:00">July 18, 2023</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->Conclusion
In summary, while the financial landscape is exhibiting promising trends, numerous uncertainties loom on the horizon. Investors remain optimistic, but the potential challenges ahead require vigilant monitoring. As we look toward the rest of the year, careful consideration of market dynamics will be crucial for navigating this complex environment.
