In the world of economics, change is the only constant. Understanding that the economy is ever-evolving can make it challenging for individuals to detect shifts in trends as they happen.
* Some members of the House are considering the possibility of a government shutdown.
* US companies label China as ‘uninvestable’, according to the US Commerce Secretary.
* The recent slowdown in China could pose significant challenges for the US.
* Home prices in the US have increased for the fifth consecutive month as of June.
* A US court has approved the nation’s first spot bitcoin ETF.
* The US Consumer Confidence Index fell in August after two months of increase.
* Job openings in the US dropped in June to their lowest level since March 2021:
Recently, I discussed the earnings yield as a metric for gauging the equity risk premium of the US stock market—the return on stocks in comparison to a “risk-free” rate. Today, I will also incorporate the dividend yield model (DYM) for further insights.
* US and China have committed to alleviating trade tensions.
* China plans to accelerate fiscal spending to help its slowing economy.
* Is geothermal energy poised to be the next big advancement for the United States?
* The German economy is showing signs of stagnation.
* Goldman Sachs has exited its investment advisory division.
* Texas manufacturing production in August has contracted at the most severe rate in three years:
Following three consecutive weekly declines, the Global Market Index (GMI) saw a resurgence for the week ending August 25. This unmanaged index encompasses all the main asset classes (excluding cash) in market-value weights via ETFs, serving as a valuable benchmark for multi-asset-class strategies.
* Fed Chairman Powell stated that inflation “remains too high.” * Central bankers worldwide express uncertainty about whether current rates are sufficient to combat inflation.
* The repercussions of the slowdown in China are likely to be limited for the US economy.
* shares of Evergrande, the troubled Chinese developer, plummeted as trading resumed.
* The likelihood of a US government shutdown this autumn appears to be increasing.
* Zillow forecasts that US home prices have bottomed out and will rise again in 2024, according to reports.
* This week’s US economic updates will focus on inflation and jobs.
* Analysts at RBC suggest that the recent surge in large-cap growth stocks looks to be overbought.
Yasheng Huang
Review via The Wall Street Journal
Disillusioned with academia’s constraints, Yasheng Huang embarked on writing an ambitious book about his native China. The result, “The Rise and Fall of the EAST,” explores the interrelation of exams, autocracy, stability, and technology that has influenced China for nearly 1,500 years.
The trajectory of US economic growth in the first half of the year suggests that this momentum is poised to carry over into the third quarter, based on the median estimates from various sources gathered by CapitalSpectator.com.
* Will Chair Powell’s upcoming speech indicate a change in monetary policy?
* Officials from the Fed express varying opinions on potential further rate hikes.
* Headline durable goods orders in the US declined in July, even as orders for business equipment increased.
* Business sentiment in Germany has decreased for the fourth month in a row.
* Jobless claims in the US have declined slightly, pointing to a robust labor market.
* The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now forecasts Q3 growth at an impressive +5.9%.
* US economic recovery is evident in July, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index:
Challenging the performance of large-cap stocks and their growth component has proven difficult this year. Analysis of various ETF equity risk proxy factors up to August 23 indicates that while many segments of the US equity market are seeing gains, large-cap growth stocks are driving a significant portion of this upward momentum.
