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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Big-Fail-Pandemic-Revealed-Protects/dp/0593331028?keywords=The+Big+Fail%3A+What+the+Pandemic+Revealed+About+Who+America+Protects+and+Who+It+Leaves+Behind&qid=1697728131&s=books&sr=1-1&linkCode=li2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=3e520a34da3cef3a403af279052ddf82&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=0593331028&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=0593331028" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/45LoXEs">The Big Fail: What the Pandemic Revealed About Who America Protects and Who It Leaves Behind</a><br/>Joe Nocera and Bethany McLean<br/><strong><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/afd71d4d-1931-4b07-a5e1-b0fca0e11dc8">Essay</a> by co-author via Financial Times</strong><br/>While legislators and regulators often speak highly of the importance of small banks and businesses, their actions frequently favor large institutions, especially in the banking sector. This trend undermines small businesses, which rely on small banks for support. Starting with bank deregulation in the 1980s and continuing through the response to the global financial crisis, we have prioritized the growth of large banks, despite the fact that they were primarily responsible for the crisis. Notably, small banks did not require bailouts. Between 2002 and 2022, the number of banks insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation nearly halved.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-21-october-2023/#more-20991" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-21-october-2023/" title="3:56 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-21T03:56:00-04:00">October 21, 2023</time></a>
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<p>The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury note briefly surpassed the 5% mark yesterday (Oct. 19) — the highest level since 2007 — before stabilizing at 4.98%, as reported by Treasury.gov. For buy-and-hold investors, this elevated yield is certainly appealing compared to recent years when interest rates were much lower. However, an important question arises: How does a 5% yield stack up against stock market performance in the US?</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/comparing-a-5-10-year-treasury-yield-to-stock-market-returns/#more-21011" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/comparing-a-5-10-year-treasury-yield-to-stock-market-returns/" title="8:31 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-20T08:31:41-04:00">October 20, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* Fed Chair Powell <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/powell-says-inflation-is-still-too-high-and-lower-economic-growth-is-likely-needed-to-bring-it-down.html">asserts</a> that “inflation is still too high”<br/>* Economists <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-20/economists-boost-us-growth-projections-reduce-recession-odds?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg">increase</a> US growth projections through early 2024<br/>* China will <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/20/china-top-graphite-producer-to-curb-exports-of-key-battery-material.html">restrict exports</a> of vital battery materials for electric vehicles<br/>* US 10-year Treasury yield <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/us-treasurys-ahead-of-fed-chair-powell-speech.html">climbs</a> to 5%, marking the highest level since 2007<br/>* Existing home sales in the US have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/19/homes/existing-home-sales-september/index.html">fallen</a> to a 13-year low in September<br/>* The US Leading Economic Index continues to <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-continues-to-fall-in-september-301962128.html">indicate</a> a weak economic outlook<br/>* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/us-jobless-claims-fall-to-198-000-lowest-level-since-january">drop</a> to a nine-month low, nearing a multi-decade low:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/claims.20oct2023.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21009" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/claims.20oct2023.png" alt="" width="1200" height="675" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-october-2023/#more-21008" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-october-2023/" title="6:58 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-20T06:58:26-04:00">October 20, 2023</time></a>
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<p>Even as American stock markets maintain a robust rally since last year’s lows, reaching the previous market peak is not expected in the short term. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rates, as well as persistent political gridlock in Washington all contribute to a compelling case for investors to adopt a cautious approach.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stock-markets-current-drawdown-is-9th-longest-since-1950/#more-21003" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stock-markets-current-drawdown-is-9th-longest-since-1950/" title="7:52 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-19T07:52:53-04:00">October 19, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* The House GOP speaker contest remains in <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jim-jordan-house-speaker-mccarthy-trump-abdef873a8d14979848b658e4ef46fd2">stalemate</a> as Jordan loses a second vote.<br/>
* Inflation is easing while economic growth is softening, as reported in the <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231018427/beige-book-sees-slightly-weaker-us-economy-and-easing-inflation">Fed Beige Book</a>.<br/>
* The 10-year Treasury yield has been <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/us-treasury-yields-investors-weigh-economic-data.html">above</a> 4.9% for the first time since 2007.<br/>
* US household wealth <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4263553-americans-net-worth-grew-at-historic-pace-from-2019-to-2022/">increased</a> at a historic rate of 37% during the pandemic.<br/>
* Finnish telecom giant Nokia plans to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67153676">cut 14,000 jobs</a>.<br/>
* US housing starts <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3397330/u-s-housing-starts-surge-7-0-in-september.aspx">rebounded</a> in September after a steep decline in August:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/starts.19oct2023.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21001" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/starts.19oct2023.png" alt="" width="700" height="500" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-october-2023/#more-21000" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-october-2023/" title="6:39 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-19T06:39:40-04:00">October 19, 2023</time></a>
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<p>While some analysts continue to forecast a US recession, the predicted start date keeps shifting forward, as current economic data suggests resilience. This trend is also reflected in today’s revised nowcast for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-nowcast-still-indicates-accelerating-growth/#more-20996" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-nowcast-still-indicates-accelerating-growth/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-18T07:37:02-04:00">October 18, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* Biden’s visit to Israel is a <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67142001">high-stakes gamble</a> aimed at easing tensions.<br/>
* China's GDP growth <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/china-economy-q3-gdp.html">exceeds</a> expectations for Q3.<br/>
* The chances of a soft landing for the US economy <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/opinion/economy-recession-inflation.html">are increasing</a>.<br/>
* Homebuilder confidence in the US <a href="https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2023/10/mortgage-rates-well-above-7-percent-continue-to-hammer-builder-confidence">declines</a> in October, reaching a multi-month low.<br/>
* US industrial production <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/us-september-industrial-production-beats-expectations-f560f035">recovered</a> in September.<br/>
* US retail sales <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-17/us-retail-sales-top-forecasts-in-sign-of-durable-consumer-demand">rose</a> more than anticipated in September:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/retail.18oct2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20994" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/retail.18oct2023.png" alt="" width="1200" height="675" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-october-2023/#more-20993" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-october-2023/" title="6:35 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-18T06:35:05-04:00">October 18, 2023</time></a>
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<p>The ongoing rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield is surpassing CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, derived from <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate/">three different models.</a> This trend underlines the limitations of these models in accurately predicting short-term changes in bond yields. However, examining the current divergence shows that, while the spread is extreme by recent standards, it is not without precedent.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-17-october-2023/#more-20988" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-17-october-2023/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-17T07:37:38-04:00">October 17, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* Biden <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67132793">plans to visit</a> Israel as a tactic to prevent escalating conflict.<br/>
* Preliminary earnings data <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-season-off-to-strong-start-despite-uncertain-macro-environment-ahead-202508838.html">indicate</a> that the earnings recession for S&P 500 companies has ended.<br/>
* The outlook for prolonged high-interest rates <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/top-economists-unanimous-on-higher-for-longer-rates-as-inflation-threats-linger.html">strengthens.</br>
* China's Q3 economic figures <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-16/china-data-likely-to-show-fragile-economy-in-need-of-support?srnd=economics-v2#xj4y7vzkg">are expected</a> to reveal growth below target.<br/>
* US holiday spending <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/business/deloitte-holiday-spending-forecast/index.html">is predicted</a> to return to pre-pandemic levels.<br/>
* SEC chief <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4258889-ai-caused-financial-crisis-nearly-unavoidable-without-regulation-sec-chief/">raises alarms</a> about the potential for an AI-related financial crisis in the years ahead.<br/>
* The NY Fed Manufacturing Index <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202310164002/new-york-manufacturing-activity-sank-into-contraction-in-october-ny-fed">slips</a> into negative territory in October.<br/>
* US oil production hit a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W">record high</a> in the first week of October:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/oil.17oct2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20986" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/oil.17oct2023.png" alt="" width="970" height="647" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-17-october-2023/#more-20985" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-17-october-2023/" title="6:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-17T06:43:35-04:00">October 17, 2023</time></a>
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<p>As the year progresses, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict introduces a new risk dynamic for financial markets. However, US stocks continue to outperform other asset classes as the year approaches its conclusion, evaluated through a selection of ETFs up until Friday’s close (Oct. 13).</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-still-lead-global-assets-in-2023/#more-20982" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-still-lead-global-assets-in-2023/" title="7:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-10-16T07:33:32-04:00">October 16, 2023</time></a>
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