Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, & Economic Insights

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    <p>The recent discussions surrounding persistent inflation have sparked speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in June. While there are various opinions on the matter, one thing is certain: the current economic indicators do not suggest that a more accommodating monetary policy is on the horizon.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/expectations-for-june-rate-cut-continue-to-fade/#more-21838" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/expectations-for-june-rate-cut-continue-to-fade/" title="7:00 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-19T07:00:40-04:00">March 19, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>* Japan's central bank <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/bank-of-japan-boj-march-2024-policy-decision-mpm-meeting.html">raises</a> interest rates for the first time since 2007<br />* Federal court temporarily <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4539671-republicans-victory-court-halts-sec-climate-disclosure-rules/">blocks</a> newly implemented SEC climate-disclosure regulations<br />* Nvidia <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/nvidia-announces-gb200-blackwell-ai-chip-launching-later-this-year.html">unveils</a> a new generation of AI chips<br />* Google and Apple <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/google-apple-discuss-integrating-gemini-ai-iphones-stocks-soar-3727458">are reportedly considering</a> the integration of Gemini’s generative AI into iPhones<br />* US homebuilder confidence <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3432924/u-s-homebuilder-confidence-unexpectedly-improves-in-march.aspx">reaches</a> an eight-month high in March:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/hmi.19mar2024.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21836" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/hmi.19mar2024.png" alt="" width="700" height="500"  /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-march-2024/#more-21835" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-march-2024/" title="6:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-19T06:16:04-04:00">March 19, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>It was only a matter of time before the status quo changed. While it's uncertain whether last week's shift in market dynamics will be sustained long-term, for now, US equities have slipped from their leading position among the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-february-2024-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> based on recent performance metrics up until March 15.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/commodities-overtake-us-stocks-as-performance-leader-in-2024/#more-21832" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/commodities-overtake-us-stocks-as-performance-leader-in-2024/" title="7:52 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-18T07:52:21-04:00">March 18, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>* Economists predict that the Fed will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period, according to a recent <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9d58ff6a-c6c4-4740-b3aa-5699a865c7f4">poll</a>...<br />* BIS president <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/fed-and-others-to-make-major-progress-on-rates-this-year-bis-chief.html">forecasts</a> likely rate cuts within this year<br />* Another potential <a href="https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/4538752-morning-report-a-government-shutdown-is-looming-again/">government shutdown</a> looms on Friday<br />* China <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/china-retail-sales-industrial-data-for-first-2-months-beats-expectations.html">reports</a> stronger-than-expected economic data in its retail and industrial sectors; however…<br />* The struggling property market in China <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/economy/china-property-market-weakness-intl-hnk/index.html">remains</a> a concern<br />* Working into old age <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/opinion/retirement-old-age-savings.html">is less effective</a> than many believe for addressing the retirement crisis<br />* US retail spending <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/121ee349-e20b-4f15-a41a-a1a4d7564bb0">shows signs of leveling off</a> as consumers tighten their belts:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/retail.18mar2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21829" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/retail.18mar2024.png" alt="" width="849" height="590" /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-march-2024/#more-21828" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-march-2024/" title="6:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-18T06:43:22-04:00">March 18, 2024</time></a>
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    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/price.14mar2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-21815 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/price.14mar2024.png" alt="" width="146" height="215"  /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/49SRqej">The Price is Wrong: Why Capitalism Won’t Save the Planet</a><br/>Brett Christophers<br/><strong><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0b8a1c88-c670-4166-823c-7999f3f032bc">Review</a> via Financial Times</strong><br/>What makes transitioning renewable energy away from public funding so challenging? Christophers argues that while rising interest rates and steel prices play a role, a larger structural reason exists: we are using the wrong metrics. Beyond merely comparing power prices, the crucial factor is how profitable investors believe these projects will be. Presently, renewable projects yield only 5 to 8 percent returns on equity, in contrast to over 15 percent for oil and gas investments.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-16-march-2024/#more-21799" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-16-march-2024/" title="2:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-16T02:28:00-04:00">March 16, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>Latest nowcasts indicate a potential slowdown in US economic activity, as we approach the upcoming first-quarter GDP data release. This updated projection is derived from the median of various nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-still-expected-to-slow-in-q1-gdp-report/#more-21820" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-still-expected-to-slow-in-q1-gdp-report/" title="7:19 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-15T07:19:32-04:00">March 15, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>* A primary source of strength for the US economy: workers <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240314374/why-is-the-economy-still-growing-because-most-workers-dont-fear-for-their-jobs">feel secure</a> in their jobs<br />* Issues in commercial real estate <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/14/business/commercial-real-estate-tax-revenue.html">affect</a> municipal finances<br />* Copper prices <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-resumes-rally-toward-9-032740487.html">rise</a> due to supply concerns<br />* US retail sales <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-rebound-in-february-in-sign-of-consumer-spending-resilience-124309447.html">recover</a> in February following January's sharp decline<br />* Initial jobless claims <a href="https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-5a914fdd4256e9f84d017fbfa49f5137">remain low</a> for the week ending March 9<br />* Producer price inflation in the US is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/producer-price-index-february-2024-wholesale-inflation-rose-0point6percent-in-february.html">higher than anticipated</a> for February:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ppi.15mar2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21817" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ppi.15mar2024.png" alt="" width="1296" height="770"  /></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-15-march-2024/" title="6:36 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-15T06:36:50-04:00">March 15, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>The recent mixed reports on inflation did little to hinder expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate interest rate cuts this June. However, rising uncertainty surrounding the ideal timing has begun to complicate the forecast.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-still-expect-rate-cut-in-june-but-doubt-is-creeping-higher/#more-21811" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-still-expect-rate-cut-in-june-but-doubt-is-creeping-higher/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-14T07:37:51-04:00">March 14, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>* Wall Street analysts are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-forecasts-are-chasing-the-us-economy-higher-090047892.html">catching up</a> with a robust US economy<br />* The House <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/house-passes-bill-that-could-lead-to-a-tiktok-ban-fight-shifts-to-the-senate.html">passes a bill</a> that may enforce a TikTok ban or its sale<br />* Recent data <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">confirms</a> the US as the world's top oil producer<br />* The IEA predicts global oil demand will cool compared to 2023 <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iea-sees-economic-headwinds-putting-090339309.html">amid economic challenges</a><br />* Mortgage demand <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/13/weekly-mortgage-demand-jumps-again-as-interest-rates-fall-below-7percent.html">recovers</a> as 30-year fixed rates dip below 7%<br />* US gasoline prices <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-higher-prices-are-ahead-for-consumers-165718865.html">climb</a> to a six-month high:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/gas.14mar2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21809" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/gas.14mar2024.png" alt="" width="900" height="396"  /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-march-2024/#more-21808" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-march-2024/" title="6:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-14T06:37:38-04:00">March 14, 2024</time></a>
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    <p>The yield on the US 10-year Treasury continues to trade well above its estimated 'fair value,' based on averages from <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate/">three models</a> maintained by CapitalSpectator.com. This market premium indicates that while the benchmark yield faces constraints on further upside, achieving a rapid decline toward fair value appears unlikely due to various behavioral factors.</p>

    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-13-march-2024/#more-21803" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-13-march-2024/" title="7:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-03-13T07:33:47-04:00">March 13, 2024</time></a>
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