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<p>In recent financial news:</p>
<ul>
<li>* The US stock market is experiencing its <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/stocks-are-in-their-longest-stretch-without-a-2percent-sell-off-since-the-financial-crisis.html">longest streak</a> without a 2% correction since the financial crisis.</li>
<li>* China and the EU are set to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw999dwp313o">discuss</a> tariffs related to electric vehicles.</li>
<li>* Existing home sales in the US have seen a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-decline-in-may-as-home-prices-reach-record-high-200445819.html">decline</a> for the third consecutive month.</li>
<li>* The US Leading Economic Index <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">fell</a> again in May.</li>
<li>* Business activity growth in the US <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/dab295292d5a444c8f772b2b82587fa2">increased</a> in June, reaching a 26-month high according to a PMI survey.</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/pmi.24jun2024.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22403" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/pmi.24jun2024.png" alt="" width="805" height="548" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-june-2024/#more-22402" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-june-2024/" title="6:15 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-24T06:15:25-04:00">June 24, 2024</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/what.20jun2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-22387 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/what.20jun2024.png" alt="" width="135" height="210" /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/45vK7rB">What Went Wrong with Capitalism</a><br/>by Ruchir Sharma<br/><strong><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7650d057-be19-45ce-9a4e-b5ac0418d5c4">Essay</a> published in the Financial Times</strong><br/>The era of easy money, many believe, ended with the recent resurgence of inflation, compelling central banks to raise interest rates. However, this era was not solely characterized by low rates and did not commence only in 2008; rather, it reflects a longstanding pattern of behaviors—borrow, bail out, regulate, stimulate—that has been evolving over the past century. It remains in effect until these entrenched habits change.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-22-june-2024/#more-22359" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-22-june-2024/" title="5:59 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-22T05:59:20-04:00">June 22, 2024</time></a>
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<p>The recent decision by the Bank of England to maintain interest rates provides insight into the potential timeline for US rate cuts, suggesting they may be further off than many anticipate.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/what-does-the-bank-of-englands-delayed-rate-cut-imply-for-us/#more-22393" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/what-does-the-bank-of-englands-delayed-rate-cut-imply-for-us/" title="7:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-21T07:34:13-04:00">June 21, 2024</time></a>
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</div> <div class="entry-content">
<p>* The Eurozone's recovery in June <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c60d9fc0c66a4b0f9daaf2f3ac10292f">slowed</a> for the first time in four months according to a PMI survey.<br/>* Citigroup <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-sees-ai-displacing-more-170557299.html">forecasts</a> the banking sector will be hit hardest by AI-driven job losses.<br/>* The Bank of England <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-june-2024.html">retains rates</a> even as inflation reaches its 2% target.<br/>* Electric vehicle sales in Europe <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-sales-tumble-across-080321634.html">plummeted,</a> notably due to declining demand in Germany.<br/>* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/20/unemployment-claims-down-5k-worse-than-expected">decreased last week</a> after three consecutive weeks of increases.<br/>* US housing starts <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/20/housing-starts-drop-to-lowest-level-since-june-2020">fell</a> to a four-year low in May.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/starts.21jun2024.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22391" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/starts.21jun2024.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-june-2024/#more-22389" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-june-2024/" title="6:27 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-21T06:27:48-04:00">June 21, 2024</time></a>
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<p>US equities are witnessing an impressive surge by virtually any standard. In the face of multiple global challenges, investor confidence in American stocks remains strong. The pressing question is when to take profits and reallocate to other asset classes.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-case-for-portfolio-rebalancing-looks-compelling/#more-22381" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-case-for-portfolio-rebalancing-looks-compelling/" title="7:54 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-20T07:54:05-04:00">June 20, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* The average monthly residential electricity bill in the US is projected to increase by 3% compared to last year, according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/ac-electricity-bill-higher-summer-4b9a8edb?mod=hp_lead_pos10">EIA</a>.<br/>* Almost half of Americans report facing financial difficulties, as per a <a href="https://thehill.com/business/4729857-americans-struggling-financial-situation/">recent poll</a>.<br/>* Many AI stocks considered top performers have <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1e02d0d3-3f0b-4bd1-a79c-9fd45d1b6056">experienced declines</a> this year.<br/>* The recent <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/switzerland-trims-key-interest-rate-to-1point25percent-in-second-cut-of-the-year.html">rate cut in Switzerland</a> highlights varying monetary policies across major economies.<br/>* Confidence among US home builders <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3455220/u-s-homebuilder-confidence-unexpectedly-dips-to-six-month-low-in-june.aspx">dipped</a> for the second month, reaching a six-month low.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/hmi.20jun2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22379" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/hmi.20jun2024.png" alt="" width="700" height="500" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-june-2024/#more-22378" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-20-june-2024/" title="6:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-20T06:34:28-04:00">June 20, 2024</time></a>
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<p>Discussion surrounding a potential recession in the US is gaining traction once again. Although the near-term business outlook is still debatable, certain indicators suggest a slowdown in growth that could signal difficulties arising in the latter half of the year and into early 2025.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-recession-risk-rising-warning-signs-are-starting-to-emerge/#more-22374" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-recession-risk-rising-warning-signs-are-starting-to-emerge/" title="7:24 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-19T07:24:14-04:00">June 19, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* Economist Claudia Sahm warns that the Fed's decision to postpone rate cuts may risk a recession, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/economist-sahm-who-devised-recession-rule-says-the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-.html">her predictions</a>.<br/>* US industrial output showed a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-production-surges-may-135409759.html">strong recovery</a> in May.<br/>* According to the CBO, US debt as a percentage of GDP is projected to exceed the WWII peak by 2027: <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039">CBO report</a>.<br/>* Nvidia has now become the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/nvidia-passes-microsoft-in-market-cap-is-most-valuable-public-company.html">most valuable public company</a>, surpassing Microsoft.<br/>* US retail sales <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.html">grew</a> but not as much as anticipated in May.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/retail.19jun2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22372" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/retail.19jun2024.png" alt="" width="700" height="500" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-june-2024/#more-22370" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-19-june-2024/" title="6:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-19T06:33:48-04:00">June 19, 2024</time></a>
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<p>The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to exceed The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate, indicating a gap that may limit upward movement for this pivotal market rate.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-18-june-2024/#more-22366" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-18-june-2024/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-18T07:37:00-04:00">June 18, 2024</time></a>
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<p>* The S&P 500 has <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-rises-record-close-monday-dow-snaps-four-day-losing-streak-rcna157616">reached another record high</a> as of June 17.<br/>* Optimism surrounding AI has led <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-enthusiasm-prompts-3-wall-street-banks-to-raise-stock-market-forecasts-100027154.html">three Wall Street banks to revise</a> their stock market predictions upwards.<br/>* Central banks are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/central-banks-expect-to-snap-up-more-gold-this-year-amid-dollar-pessimism-096ce58f?mod=economy_lead_story">expected</a> to increase their gold reserves due to concerns about the US dollar.<br/>* China's housing market <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-factory-output-cools-retail-024336611.html">continues to decline,</a> intensifying calls for government intervention.<br/>* Fisker, the California-based electric-vehicle manufacturer, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-startup-fisker-files-for-bankruptcy-0a3eb7d6?mod=hp_lead_pos1">has filed for bankruptcy</a>.<br/>* The New York Fed Manufacturing Index indicates <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3454733/new-york-manufacturing-index-indicates-notably-slower-contraction-in-june.aspx">a contraction</a> for the seventh consecutive month.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/nyfed.mfg_.18jun2024.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22364" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/nyfed.mfg_.18jun2024.png" alt="" width="756" height="533" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-june-2024/#more-22363" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-18-june-2024/" title="6:55 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-06-18T06:55:59-04:00">June 18, 2024</time></a>
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