Understanding the current geopolitical landscape is crucial, especially as tensions rise between Western powers and Russia. The ongoing conflict has highlighted the discrepancies in military readiness and doctrine, raising concerns about the implications of an escalating confrontation. In this context, we explore the dynamics at play and what they mean for global stability.
Yves here. It’s both perplexing and alarming to witness Western nations escalate their stance against Russia. Russia has demonstrated considerable military advancements, while NATO members appear to be trapped in outdated strategies, leading to significant depletion of their weapons stockpiles. The Western goal might be to create an “Iron Curtain 2.0,” yet this strategy seems more like an act of self-sabotage, considering Russia’s wealth in crucial resources and its growing alliance with China, a major manufacturing and technology hub.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Russia’s focus on the western front may prompt US-aligned NATO member Turkiye to intensify its ambitions in the southern region, potentially igniting another crisis similar to that in Ukraine.
In a recent interview, Russian Ambassador-at-Large Artyom Bulatov warned that “Westerners, with energy worthy of a better cause, are erecting a new ‘Iron Curtain,’ aiming to make irreversible the rupture—caused by themselves—of socio-economic, trade, transport, interpersonal, cultural, and historical connections that have developed over centuries.” He criticized the weaponization of mechanisms like the Council of the Baltic States against Russia.
In reality, the emergence of a new Iron Curtain has been a likelihood since summer 2024 when the Baltic States and Poland took steps to consolidate their respective border security plans into what is now known as the “EU Defense Line.” For more on this, refer to this resource. This initiative is expected to extend to Finland, creating a defensive line from the Arctic down to Central Europe. Even if a rapprochement between Russia and the US occurs, these barriers are likely to persist.
Time has brought Russian experts to a sobering realization: the European Union is not merely responding to US directives but is engaged in its own ideologically motivated antagonism towards Russia. The new President of the Russian International Affairs Council, Dmitriy Trenin, recently issued an urgent call for re-evaluating flawed foreign policy perceptions, coinciding with Bulatov’s remarks.
In his article titled “The EU, Like ‘NATO 3.0,’ Will Remain Our Adversaries,” he starkly points out that for the first time since 1945, the primary military threat to Russia arises from European states themselves. This represents a significant shift in global military politics since the end of the Great Patriotic War. Trenin posits that the objective is to disband the Russian Federation into externally controlled territories, transforming them into dependencies of the EU.
This strategy involves perpetuating the NATO-Russian proxy conflict in Ukraine, complemented by intensified sanctions and military pressure to destabilize internal governance. Trenin proposes five counterstrategies: 1) reinforce the home front; 2) demonstrate readiness to target EU interests if necessary; 3) strengthen partnerships with China, creating a de facto global alliance; 4) exploit divisions within the US-EU alliance; and 5) take advantage of political shifts within EU nations.
Trenin also reasserts Russia’s emerging identity as a (Eurasian) civilization-state, fundamentally indicating that the Russian populace is increasingly distinguishing themselves from Europeans. This newfound identity stands in contrast to Russia’s historic attempts to emulate the West over the past three centuries. The insights shared by Trenin resonate with Bulatov’s observations, affirming that the construction of a new Iron Curtain is indeed unavoidable, a sentiment now recognized by many Russians.
When considering the broader context, three trends emerge clearly: 1) the EU will persist in its challenge against Russia irrespective of the state of US-Russian relations; 2) Russia will continue to prioritize engagement with the World Majority over the West; and 3) tensions between Russia and the EU will increasingly become the norm. With Russia concentrating on the western front, US-backed NATO member Turkiye is anticipated to escalate its strategic activities in the south, potentially leading to another regional crisis akin to that of Ukraine.
