The recent visit of the CIA director to Havana for talks with senior government officials indicates that major developments in US-Cuba relations may be imminent.
Nearly 65 years following the Bay of Pigs incident, reports have surfaced that the United States is again contemplating a military intervention in Cuba. President Trump has openly entertained the idea of seizing control of Cuba, while intensifying sanctions against the island nation. Just last week, he hinted that an aircraft carrier returning from Iran could be stationed off the Cuban coast.
This scenario, however, assumes US aircraft carriers will soon return from the Persian Gulf, a notion that might be overly optimistic. Evidence suggests that the US Air Force is ramping up reconnaissance flights near Cuban waters, reminiscent of the events leading to the January 3 attack on Venezuela, according to Drop Site News:
Since February 4, the U.S. Navy and Air Force have conducted at least 25 surveillance missions off the Cuban coast, primarily around Havana and Santiago de Cuba, with some operations coming within 40 miles of the shore, as per a CNN analysis of aviation data — a notable surge not seen in recent years.
The reconnaissance aircraft include P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol planes, RC-135V Rivet Joint signals intelligence aircraft, and MQ-4C Triton high-altitude drones — the same models that monitored the US special forces’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and facilitated joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
CNN further highlighted that escalating rhetoric has consistently accompanied an increase in reconnaissance flights prior to both operations. The aircraft have the option to cloak their location signals, yet they have not done so, leading to speculation that these activities may be intended as a clear signal to Havana.
The uptick in military operations near Cuba aligns with the island’s economic collapse, triggered by nearly total energy sanctions from the US. Since January, both Venezuela and Mexico, Cuba’s primary energy suppliers, have been unable to deliver oil. A brief reprieve followed a March delivery of 730,000 barrels of crude oil by the Russian-flagged Anatoly Kolodkin, but that supply has since been exhausted, with no new deliveries anticipated.
🇨🇺 BREAKING: Cuba is completely out of diesel and fuel oil
Cuba has completely depleted its reserves of diesel and fuel oil, as announced by Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy on state media, sparking protests across the capital.
Some neighborhoods in the… https://t.co/VhA7UiM8XR
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 14, 2026
“We are committed to supporting Cuba,” declared the Russian ambassador in Havana, Víctor Koronelli. He stressed that assistance from other nations was desperately required: “It is crucial for friendly nations to collaborate in breaking this energy blockade, just as Russia has done. United action will yield results.”
However, time is running short. As of Wednesday, Cuba has entirely exhausted its diesel and fuel oil supplies. Prolonged blackouts lasting up to 20-22 hours each day have led to protests as the populace grows increasingly impatient. From a recent Financial Times article:
Protests erupted in Cuba following the government’s announcement that it had completely depleted its diesel and fuel reserves, essential for electricity generation.
Energy Minister Vicente de la O Levy attributed the crisis to the near-total energy blockade imposed by US President Donald Trump over the last four months.
“We have absolutely no fuel or diesel left,” he stated on Wednesday during a broadcast on state media. “Our reserves are fully depleted.”
President Miguel Díaz-Canel described the energy situation as “particularly tense,” blaming the “dramatic worsening” on the “genocidal US blockade.”
Images from social media indicated that protests had erupted in portions of Havana overnight, with residents banging pots and pans and lighting fires in the streets. Reports surfaced of confrontations with police.
Cuba’s long-standing dependence on Venezuelan oil, exchanged for Cuban doctors and spies, ended in January when US forces detained Maduro.
Mexico provided one shipment of oil to Cuba on January 9 but subsequently ceased deliveries under pressure from Trump. In late January, Trump threatened tariffs against any nation supplying Cuba as his administration escalated efforts to force regime change.
Upon hearing this news, my initial assumption was that CIA operatives would likely be present at the protests. A few hours later, my Twitter feed alerted me to this development:
Cuba discloses that CIA Director John Ratcliffe quietly met with officials in Havana amid the ongoing energy crisis and escalating tensions with the US.https://t.co/b4FuzpMgPL
— CNN (@CNN) May 14, 2026
For the first time, a CIA director has engaged in discussions with senior representatives of Cuba’s communist government — a scenario unimaginable just a few months ago. From the CNN report:
CIA Director John Ratcliffe led a US delegation to Havana on Thursday to meet with Cuban officials as the island grapples with a significant energy crisis amid increasing tensions with the United States, according to official statements from Cuba.
“Following a request from the US government for a delegation led by the CIA Director to be welcomed in Havana, the Revolutionary Directorate approved this meeting with representatives from the Ministry of the Interior,” the statement disclosed.
Cuban officials emphasized during the meeting that Cuba “does not pose a threat to US national security” and denied any “legitimate reasons” for its designation as a State Sponsor of Terrorism as affirmed by the Trump administration. They insisted that Cuba harbors no terrorists and does not support or finance terrorism — long-standing allegations from the US — and denied hosting military or intelligence bases of foreign nations.
The energy blockade represents only one front in the Trump administration’s comprehensive economic assault on Cuba. The sanctions have extended to Cuba’s international medical missions, significantly impacting the island’s foreign currency earnings and depriving numerous countries in the Global South of essential medical care provided by Cuban practitioners.
The human cost of these sanctions remains largely unknown; however, a study published last year in Lancet suggests that US-led sanctions have resulted in approximately 564,000 deaths annually since 1970, equating to a mortality rate comparable to or exceeding that of direct deaths from armed conflicts.
In the video below, Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Eduardo Rodríguez Parrilla refers to the US blockade as “an act of genocide and collective punishment.” He reports that infant mortality has surged, with 12,000 children waiting for surgery.
🇨🇺 Canciller cubano:
“Es un acto de genocidio y castigo colectivo… la mortalidad infantil se ha duplicado, 12.000 niños esperan cirugías… la asfixia total siempre ha sido el verdadero objetivo de la política de EE.UU. hacia Cuba.” pic.twitter.com/xjCud7D6wW— Tere Felipe (@_TereFelipe_) May 14, 2026
“From 2018 to 2025, as U.S. sanctions grew more punitive, Cuba’s once-impressive infant mortality rate skyrocketed by 148 percent,” @RepJayapal and @rep_jackson write in @nytopinion, citing a recently released CEPR report. pic.twitter.com/5oWf3uVcQF
— CEPR (@ceprdc) May 12, 2026
As Fidel Castro once articulated, one reason for Washington’s animosity towards Cuba is that the island continuously illustrates how the US model can falter. The fact that Cuba has maintained (or had until recent escalations) similar life expectancy to the United States, lower infant mortality, superior primary care coverage (at a fraction of the cost), and a higher literacy rate over decades of US sanctions serves as a significant point of shame for Washington.
Fidel Castro explains why the US despises Cuba and is desperate to destroy it: “Our country does not drop bombs on other people, nor does it send thousands of planes to bomb cities. Instead our country sends doctors to those most lost corners of the world.” pic.twitter.com/qrTUMgWSEC
— ☀️👀 (@zei_squirrel) January 30, 2026
In recent weeks, the US has continued to tighten its grip on Cuba’s beleaguered economy. On May 1, the Trump administration imposed extensive restrictions on any foreign individuals or entities deemed active in priority sectors of the Cuban economy.
In response, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced stringent secondary sanctions against GAESA, Cuba’s military-operated business conglomerate, its director Ania Guilermina Lastres Morera, and a Canadian-Cuban mining partnership, Moa Nickel SA, co-owned by one of Cuba’s major foreign investors, Sherritt International.
When questioned about the sanctions, Rubio claimed that GAESA “essentially extracts profits from anything economically viable in Cuba and channels them into the hands of a few insider regime members.” However, as Arturo Dominguez points out, Rubio overlooks the fact that GAESA employs millions of Cubans within its state-run enterprises:
“[H]e is neglecting to acknowledge that millions of Cubans work for state-operated businesses that fall under GAESA. Like most other unilateral economic sanctions from the United States, these directly affect the Cuban populace, resulting insuffering and death, especially amongstvulnerable segments of the Cuban population.
In anticipation of the Treasury Department’s designations, Sherritt — the largest foreign investor in Cuba and a provider of natural gas for electricity generation — disclosed its senior leadership’s resignation as the company prepares to cease operations after more than three decades in Cuba.
As noted by Lee Schlenker at Responsible Statecraft, secondary sanctions have placed numerous foreign hotel operators, financial institutions, and energy firms — especially the Spanish hotel chains Meliá and Iberostar, also managing US properties — on high alert:
The administration has provided foreign entities only a narrow four-week period to wind down any transactions with GAESA before their US assets become blocked.
According to sources familiar with the situation, financial institutions, particularly across Canada, the European Union, and Latin America, have initiated de facto bans on all dealings with Cuba due to potential repercussions from Treasury Department enforcement actions. “Further designations are likely in the days and weeks ahead,” [US Secretary of State Marco] Rubio stated on Thursday.
As conditions deteriorate in Cuba, Rubio’s delight is almost palpable. Like many Cuban-American politicians, he has forged his career around condemning the Cuban Revolution and seeking to impose crippling economic sanctions on his ancestral homeland.
“What is occurring in Cuba is unacceptable,” remarked Rubio (in Spanish) while aboard Air Force One on a trip to China. “Having a failed state just 90 miles off our coast poses a threat to the United States. It’s a regime that not only suppresses political discourse but is also inflicting economic ruin on the Cuban people.”
Rubio’s ability to state those final words with a straight face while imposing the most severe economic restrictions on his family’s homeland — restrictions that are currently causing significant suffering — underscores why he is a perilous and seemingly sociopathic figure, not only for Cuba but for Latin America as a whole, which he clearly regards with contempt.
In a striking display of irony, Rubio even offered Cuba $100 million in humanitarian assistance to be allocated through Catholic Church networks. That translates to roughly $10 per every Cuban man, woman, and child — a sum that hardly compensates for the extensive damage caused by US policies over the last sixty-six and a half years.
The initial intent behind US sanctions on Cuba, instituted in the early 1960s under President Kennedy, was to stifle the Cuban Revolution economically, penalize the Castro government for asset nationalizations, and create enough desperation to force the overthrow of Fidel Castro’s communist regime.
That objective may soon be within reach, even in Castro’s absence. The head of the CIA meeting with senior figures in Havana, including Raúl Rodríguez Castro, known as “Raulito” and a key aide to Raúl Castro, as well as the Cuban Minister of the Interior, Lázaro Álvarez Casas, and the heads of the Cuban intelligence service, suggests that significant movements may be on the horizon — possibly even crises.
The discussions reportedly touched on areas such as intelligence collaboration, economic stability, and security, predicated on the idea that Cuba must no longer serve as a safe refuge for adversaries in the Western Hemisphere. Additional topics included the potential release of political prisoners, the implementation of Starlink satellite services in Cuba, the dismantling of Cuba’s six-decade economic embargo, and the need for increased political freedoms.
🇺🇸🇨🇺CIA official: “Today, Director Ratcliffe met with Cuban officials, including Raulito Rodriguez Castro, Minister of Interior Lazaro Alvarez Casas, and the head of Cuban intelligence services in Havana to convey President Trump’s message that the United States is…
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 14, 2026
These developments come just days before Cuban Independence Day (May 20), which commemorates the end of the US’s unofficial occupation of the island prior to the Cuban Revolution. Having recently faced a failing war in Iran, Trump is likely in pursuit of a swift foreign policy achievement. The pressing question remains: will Cuba present that opportunity?
To me, this signals that the Pirate State could be planning another kidnapping operation against Cuba like they did in Venezuela. This is the lawless behavior they want to normalize around the world. https://t.co/RV3JZgBQeQ
— Richard Medhurst (@richimedhurst) May 15, 2026
“A palpable sense of expectation and anxiety exists in both Miami and Cuba,” stated Sebastian Arcos, the Interim Director for the Institute for Cuban Studies at Florida International University, told Axios:
He believes that intervention was plausible shortly after Trump described Cuba as an imminent threat to national security in January, but efforts shifted focus to the Iran conflict.
“Everything was set aside until now. With the Iran conflict in a state of uncertainty, I can observe a renewed focus on Cuba reflected in surveillance flights, public statements from the President to Marco Rubio, and the recent sanctions.”
Arcos expressed doubt that Trump would deploy ground troops but suggested he might pursue “offshore military operations” reminiscent of those in Iran, aimed at destabilizing the regime and creating conditions for new leadership to emerge.
It’s essential to note that while new leadership has surfaced in Iran, its structure is now more decentralized, and it remains opposed to US and Israeli imperial ambitions. The consequences of a US attack on Cuba are challenging to predict.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel asserted that the Cuban populace stands ready to resist any US invasion, mirroring Fidel’s forces during the Bay of Pigs. Yet, the Cuba of today has been severely weakened by US sanctions, and Díaz-Canel lacks the popular backing that Fidel once commanded. Nevertheless, Cuba is not Venezuela.
In February, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasili Nebenzya, stated during an interview with Russian state television Rossiya 24 that the US’s attempts to replicate the January 3 coup against Maduro would fall short, citing internal discord in Venezuela that facilitated the overthrow. Contrarily, he noted that Cuba’s political system is markedly more cohesive and monolithic.
Interestingly, UN Secretary-General António Guterres offered a similar assessment this week, stating that military solutions would not resolve the current impasse in Cuba and advocating for “constructive dialogue.” He reiterated that the US’s sanctions and blockade against Cuba breach international law:
In Venezuela, we witnessed a military maneuver against Maduro, but I believe there was substantial complicity within the Venezuelan political system. Comparing Venezuela and Cuba does not seem to me to be a fair comparison.
It is evident that any military engagement against Cuba, already enduring a US-induced humanitarian crisis, would provoke substantial instability in the region, triggering waves of migration toward the US. The recent war in Iran illustrates that the Trump administration has been deficient in planning for the secondary and tertiary consequences of its military actions.
The situation in Cuba is precarious and rapidly evolving, influenced by both domestic unrest and arriving external pressures. The international community watches closely, awaiting developments that could significantly alter the political landscape in Cuba and its relations with the United States.
