Electric Vehicles Set to Dominate Mexico’s Market by 2040
Overview:
Electric vehicles (EVs) are on a course to dominate Mexico’s automotive market, potentially reaching 66% of all passenger car sales by 2040. According to BloombergNEF, this growth is driven by rising domestic demand, competitive pricing, technological advancements, and significant contributions from Chinese automakers.
2015-2025 Growth:
- In 2025, Mexico surpassed 100,000 passenger EV sales, with pure battery-electric and plug-in hybrids accounting for 7% of total vehicle sales.
- This performance positioned Mexico as the second-largest EV market in Latin America, following Brazil.
Future Projections:
- BNEF forecasts that EV market share will rise to 17% by 2030 and surpass 50% by 2037, reaching 66% by 2040.
The Role of Chinese Automakers
Chinese manufacturers, including BYD, Geely, and Changan Motors, captured about 89% of Mexico’s passenger EV market in 2025, increasing from 67% in 2024. Their competitive pricing and advancing technology drive adoption.
Challenges and Opportunities
While traditional automakers produce EV models in Mexico, most are exported. However, projected demand could lead to nearly 1 million annual local sales by the late 2030s, allowing for domestic allocation of production.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors:
US pressure and trade relations under the USMCA have caused some Chinese manufacturers to reconsider establishing manufacturing plants in Mexico. Nevertheless, analysts see these challenges as opportunities to build a robust internal market.
Infrastructure and Energy Needs
As the EV market grows, Mexico will need substantial upgrades in energy and charging infrastructure:
- Current fleet: Approximately 210,000 EVs out of 63 million total vehicles.
- Forecasted need: 60 million EVs by 2040, requiring an extra 13,000 megawatts of generation capacity.
Charging Station Shortage:
Currently, there are about 41 EVs for every public charger in Mexico, far above the global average of 2.6. Most existing connections are in private or corporate networks.
Policy Responses
Authorities are undertaking measures to address these challenges:
- The “Charging Infrastructure Roadmap” and the “National Electromobility Strategy” are being developed.
- New infrastructure projects include a charging corridor in Tamaulipas and initiatives in Chetumal for public transit buses.
The focus will be on integrating public and private investment to facilitate the transition to electric mobility and to modernize the grid and production capacities.
In summary, while there are significant challenges, the growth of electric vehicles in Mexico is anticipated to revolutionize the automotive market by 2040, supported by strategic policy initiatives and infrastructure development.
