The phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” has long underscored the crucial role of economic issues in voters’ minds. Despite this, contemporary political discourse often focuses on cultural issues like religion and immigration, overshadowing economic concerns. Recent data shows the number of voters who consider the economy “extremely important” has surged from 36% in 1996 to 52% in 2024, yet cultural topics dominate campaign rhetoric, creating a puzzling disconnect.
Georgy Egorov, a professor at Kellogg, along with MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Konstantin Sonin from the University of Chicago, developed a theoretical model to explain this phenomenon. They argue that politicians gravitate towards cultural messaging because it is easier for voters to understand than economic policies, which may be complex and obscure. This results in a polarized political environment, particularly around cultural issues, even as candidates converge on their economic messaging.
Egorov points out that cultural signals are more visible and difficult to manipulate, as they are often expressed through social media. In contrast, economic policies are harder to pin down, making it challenging for voters to decipher candidates’ positions on economic issues.
As candidates aim to appeal to the median voter, who typically prefers moderate economic policies, they may resort to extreme cultural posturing to differentiate themselves from one another. This dynamic leads to a situation where electoral competition drives candidates toward polarized cultural rhetoric while pursuing moderated economic positions.
Interestingly, the model indicates that while polarization exists in cultural issues, there can be an underlying moderation in economic messaging. This reflects a political landscape where candidates negotiate the balance between appealing broadly to voters and distinguishing themselves from their rivals. While cultural polarization might seem concerning, Egorov suggests that it may not significantly impact the adult electorate’s opinions, though it poses risks for shaping future values among younger generations.
