September 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Overview
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Sales Pace: The new-vehicle sales pace for September is projected to be around 16.3 million, a decrease from 16.6 million last year and 16.8 million in August.
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Q3 Sales Volume: Estimated Q3 sales volume is 4.12 million, down from earlier quarters but reflecting strong demand; updated forecast for full-year sales is 16.1 million, an increase from 15.8 million.
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Market Trends: Asian brands are increasing their market share while the Detroit 3 are expected to achieve the lowest market share recorded.
Key Insights
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Economist Commentary: According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, despite high inflation and low consumer confidence, affluent buyers continue to drive the market, keeping it strong since March at a low-mid 16 million pace.
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Month Over Month Comparison: September is anticipated to see 6.5% increase year-over-year but a 2.7% decrease from August, influenced by seasonal factors including selling days and the timing of Labor Day.
Sales Forecast Breakdown
| Segment | Sept-26 Forecast | Sept-25 | Aug-26 | YOY% | MOM% | Sept-26 Share | Aug-26 Share | MOM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 230,000 | 233,351 | 234,842 | -1.4% | -2.1% | 17.0% | 16.9% | 0.1% |
| Mid-Size SUV/Crossover | 230,000 | 206,975 | 237,746 | 11.1% | -3.3% | 17.0% | 17.1% | -0.1% |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 190,000 | 177,007 | 197,226 | 7.3% | -3.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% | -0.1% |
| Subcompact SUV/Crossover | 128,000 | 95,789 | 131,002 | 33.6% | -2.3% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| Compact Car | 100,000 | 84,259 | 102,028 | 18.7% | -2.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 0.1% |
| Other Segments | 407,000 | 415,988 | 418,639 | -2.2% | -2.8% | 30.1% | 30.2% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | 1,350,000 | 1,268,094 | 1,387,221 | 6.5% | -2.7% |
Market Insights for Q3 2026
- Top Automakers: GM is expected to lead in sales for Q3 and year-to-date, but it faces declining market shares. Toyota is gaining ground, likely achieving growth compared to previous years. Hyundai is also on track for a strong performance.
Full-Year 2026 Outlook
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Increased Confidence: Cox Automotive has raised its full-year sales forecast due to resilient demand, improved credit access, and robust summer sales.
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Predictions:
- Retail sales estimated at 13.1 million units.
- Fleet sales estimated at 3 million units.
- Used vehicles are projected to total 38.5 million sales.
Conclusion
The automotive market in the U.S. demonstrates resilience amid economic challenges, with growing demand particularly for Asian brands and shifts towards specific vehicle types. The revised forecasts for sales indicate a positive outlook heading into the fourth quarter.
