Categories Finance

The Capital Spectator: Insights on Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics

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    <p>The economy may be encountering new <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/is_the_treasury.html#more">challenges,</a> sparking ongoing discussion among those who rely on momentum and technical analysis. Representative ETFs for the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/the_bulls_of_ap.html">primary asset classes</a> are not reaching new highs, but the extent of the selling has been relatively modest. While this isn’t necessarily a sign that everything is fine, it is noteworthy that prices have remained relatively stable despite rising macroeconomic concerns. In fact, this recent wave of anxiety prompted a sharp rally in the U.S. bond market, albeit for questionable reasons. A sense of caution is evident across other sectors as well. The upcoming week could serve as a significant test of the market's resilience, with key updates expected for durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, and trends in personal income and spending. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at how the major asset classes are performing through their proxy ETFs as of Friday’s close:</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/tactical-etf-review-5-23-2011/#more-1746" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/tactical-etf-review-5-23-2011/" title="5:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-23T05:43:42-04:00">May 23, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>● <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0805091203/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=217145&amp;creative=399349&amp;creativeASIN=0805091203">Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed, and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon</a><img decoding="async" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0805091203&amp;camp=217145&amp;creative=399349" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;"/><br/>By Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner<br/><a href="http://us.macmillan.com/recklessendangerment"><strong>Summary</strong></a> via publisher, Times Books<br/>In *Reckless Endangerment*, renowned business columnist Gretchen Morgenson reveals how the very watchdogs meant to protect the economy were complicit in the actions that ultimately led to its collapse. Utilizing previously untapped sources and building on co-author Joshua Rosner's original research, Morgenson connects the dots that led to this disaster. They shed light on Fannie Mae, the mortgage-financing giant that, backed by the Clinton administration, grew in strength throughout the 1990s while actively opposing government oversight despite benefiting from public subsidies. The authors illustrate the roles played by executives at Fannie Mae, along with facilitators at Countrywide Financial, Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve, HUD, Congress, the FDIC, and major Wall Street players, demonstrating how greed, ambition, and fear led officials to overlook critical warning signals of impending disaster.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-for-saturday-5-21-2011/#more-1745" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-for-saturday-5-21-2011/" title="6:08 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-21T06:08:47-04:00">May 21, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>The outlook for inflation is rapidly diminishing, as indicated by the yield spread between nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year Treasuries. This development is concerning if the economy is indeed experiencing a slowdown. While some experts warn of rising inflation as a significant risk, the Treasury market suggests otherwise. Decreasing inflation expectations may signal deeper troubles if the economy is downshifting.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-treasury-markets-inflation-forecast-flashing-a-warning/#more-1744" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-treasury-markets-inflation-forecast-flashing-a-warning/" title="6:23 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-20T06:23:39-04:00">May 20, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>The rebound in retail sales is topping the list of indicators suggesting the economy might withstand potential growth challenges in the near future. Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of GDP, as we often hear, indicating that solid growth in retail sales could help alleviate concerns over business cycle fluctuations. The positive news is that retail sales figures currently look promising. Nevertheless, if we exclude gasoline station sales, the optimistic case begins to weaken.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/do-high-gasoline-prices-threaten-consumer-spending/#more-1743" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/do-high-gasoline-prices-threaten-consumer-spending/" title="11:07 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-19T11:07:35-04:00">May 19, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>Today's update on initial jobless claims is likely to bring a collective sigh of relief. Last week's significant drop in new unemployment benefit filings is indeed welcome news after facing a challenging situation. Yes, we've dodged a bullet—two weeks in a row. Although jobless claims remain high enough to provoke concern, there is now a stronger argument suggesting that the recent uptick in this series might be a statistical anomaly… possibly. It's a one-week-at-a-time scenario here… again.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/jobless-claims-fall-for-2nd-week/#more-1742" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/jobless-claims-fall-for-2nd-week/" title="9:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-19T09:20:03-04:00">May 19, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>Barry Eichengreen discusses the <a href="http://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/tutkimus/konferenssit/aiemmat_konferenssit/Documents/BOF200_Eichengreen_paper.pdf?hl=eichengreen">risks linked to shifts in global economic power and influence:</a></p>
    <blockquote><p>Changes in global economic and financial power create unfamiliar settings, and such settings are fraught with risks. In the 1960s and 1970s, rising powers in Europe and Japan expressed concerns over destabilizing economic influences from the United States. This source of economic instability has been present for some time, although its manifestation continues to evolve. Now, however, the U.S. and other advanced economies face new risks stemming from China's decline and other emerging markets. The time when the Chinese economy was too small and isolated to impact the global landscape is long gone. Henceforth, U.S. policy analysts must be mindful of how an economic downturn in China, plummeting property values in major cities, or labor unrest may affect the U.S. economy—areas previously unaddressed in U.S. policy planning are now essential to consider.</p></blockquote>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/shift-risk/" title="8:04 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-18T20:04:58-04:00">May 18, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>Dominique Strauss-Kahn has some explaining to do that extends beyond defending himself against <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/imf-case-strauss-kahn-bail-alleged-victim-testifies/story?id=13630195">sexual assault charges.</a> Perhaps it's just my perception, but reconciling DSK's penchant for a luxurious lifestyle with his political affiliation to socialism is challenging. The journey from the Paris Commune to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/8498375/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-called-a-champagne-Socialist.html">luxurious symbols of the 21st century</a> seems quite long.</p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/workers-of-the-world-unite-and-spend/" title="6:57 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-18T18:57:26-04:00">May 18, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>More than two years have passed since the markets reached their lowest point following the financial crisis of late 2008 and early 2009. It’s been quite a journey. As we strive to find context, it's beneficial to compare market returns since that downturn. For reference, let's consider the end of February 2009 as this low point. How have markets fared since then?</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-big-fade-on-the-reit-yield-premium/#more-1739" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-big-fade-on-the-reit-yield-premium/" title="9:48 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-18T09:48:38-04:00">May 18, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>The latest figures on new housing starts and building permits for April might not come as a surprise, but they are nonetheless disheartening. Building permits fell by 4% last month and are down nearly 13% year-over-year. Housing starts look even bleaker, plummeting close to 11% in April, which reflects a 24% decline compared to the same month last year.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/housing-activity-weakens-in-april-industrial-production-is-flat/#more-1738" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/housing-activity-weakens-in-april-industrial-production-is-flat/" title="9:51 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-17T09:51:56-04:00">May 17, 2011</time></a>
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    <p>Ron Lieber advocates for the inclusion of index funds in 401(k) plans. “This shouldn’t be a controversial statement,” he <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/14/your-money/401ks-and-similar-plans/14money.html">writes</a> in a recent New York Times article. “Yet it has become a contentious issue in Washington, where regulators and legislators continue to engage in an endless debate about whether stockbrokers, certain insurance salespeople, and others ought to adhere to a standard known as fiduciary duty.”</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/slim-index-pickings-in-401k-plans/#more-1737" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/slim-index-pickings-in-401k-plans/" title="6:27 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2011-05-17T06:27:35-04:00">May 17, 2011</time></a>
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This revised article maintains the original structure while enhancing the clarity and flow of the content.

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