This morning’s monthly update from the Labor Department reveals that companies across the United States added significantly fewer workers in March than anticipated by economists. However, this decline in hiring appears to be an anomaly, as the year-over-year growth in private employment remains steady and moderate.
Recent momentum-based strategies have dominated the factor-investing landscape for U.S. equities. However, the recent spike in market volatility threatens to undermine this trend. Over the last 30 days, the momentum factor has suffered a small loss, placing it at the bottom of the performance rankings among various U.S. factor-focused ETFs. In contrast, core small-cap stocks emerged as the best-performing strategy during this same period, achieving a modest gain.
Trump is contemplating adding $100 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods: Reuters
China vows to respond to U.S. protectionism “to the end, and at any cost”: Bloomberg
An ECB board member states that trade concerns are already impacting the economy: Reuters
Fed Chair Powell is expected to defend gradual interest rate hikes: MarketWatch
U.S. jobless claims spiked to a three-month high last week: MarketWatch
U.S. firms reported a significant increase in job cuts in March: CNBC
The U.S. trade deficit approached a ten-year high in February: Wall St Journal
Thirteen major mutual fund firms have agreed to resume reporting active share data: Reuters
Slower labor force growth poses a challenge for U.S. GDP growth: SF Federal Reserve
The recent tariff announcements exchanged between the U.S. and China could potentially hinder economic growth. However, as it stands, these discussions remain speculative. The risks of escalating tensions in the coming months are significant. Currently, first-quarter GDP growth estimates for the U.S. indicate a continuation of the moderate expansion observed during the last quarter of 2017.
The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict may only slightly impact the economy if it does not escalate: USA Today
The White House suggests that tariff discussions are part of a larger negotiating strategy: NY Times
Southeast Asia is preparing for potential economic fallout from the trade war by implementing policy changes: Bloomberg
The GOP warns Trump that a trade war might carry political risks in the upcoming November elections: Bloomberg
The U.S. is poised to enforce new sanctions on Russia: Washington Post
ADP reports that U.S. private employment rose by a robust 241,000 in March: MarketWatch
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index showed slower but still solid growth for the U.S. in March: CNBC
The PMI indicated that growth in the U.S. services sector eased in March but remained robust: IHS Markit
A widespread increase was recorded in U.S. factory orders for February: Reuters
ADP’s estimate for U.S. private payroll growth showed a year-over-year increase of +1.9% in March, the highest in 18 months:
Last month’s analysis of return correlations underlined the difficulty of identifying strong diversification avenues among the major asset classes for effective portfolio construction and management. Could broadening the alternative strategies used improve the available options?
The U.S. has disclosed plans to impose tariffs on 1,300 Chinese products: CNBC
China promises to retaliate against U.S. tariffs with “measures of equal intensity”: Reuters
Japan is considering how to approach an upcoming meeting with Trump amid rising trade war risks: Reuters
Trump has stated he will deploy military forces to secure the U.S.-Mexico border: NY Times
A senior Chinese diplomat has extended support for a North Korea-South Korea-U.S. summit: AP
Russia, Iran, and Turkey are convening to discuss the situation in Syria: Reuters
The San Francisco Fed President has been appointed to lead the New York Fed: Politico
Global manufacturing growth has slowed to a five-month low in March: IHS Markit
It is evident that the abrupt drop in the S&P 500 on April 2 has extended the downward trend from the first quarter into the second quarter. Analysts have already begun issuing fresh warnings in light of this recent market downturn.
Wall Street experiences a significant decline due to tech industry and trade war anxieties: Reuters
A Korea expert suggests the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit: CNBC
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index dipped slightly to a still robust 59.3 for March: MarketWatch
U.S. Manufacturing PMI reached a three-year high in March: IHS Markit
Construction spending in the U.S. showed a modest 0.1% increase in February: Reuters
Eurozone manufacturing sentiment remains positive in March but fell to an eight-month low: IHS Markit
German retail sales have dropped for three consecutive months in February: Reuters
Fed fund futures are predicting no changes in rates during the May FOMC meeting: CME
U.S. visitor visas have declined by 13% over the past year: Politico
The performance of major asset classes in March was mixed. While U.S. and international stocks experienced declines, U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) and foreign inflation-protected government bonds posted the most significant gains.
In summary, the economic landscape is marked by significant fluctuations and ongoing tensions, particularly surrounding trade policies, employment trends, and market performances. While there are challenges ahead, the overall growth trajectory remains resilient, showcasing a constantly evolving financial climate.
