The Federal Reserve is expected to announce that interest rates will remain steady in today’s meeting: Reuters
Midwestern temperatures plunge to ‘historic lows’: NBC
Foreign policy issues are causing divisions within the Republican party: NY Times
As the deadline approaches, the UK is focused on renegotiating Brexit; the EU is unyielding: Reuters
France’s economy grew faster than anticipated in the fourth quarter: FT
Economists express doubts about the White House’s optimistic growth forecasts: NY Times
Quarterly hedge fund assets decreased for the first time in ten quarters: P&I
The annual growth rate of US home prices has fallen to its lowest level in four years: MW
The US Consumer Confidence Index dropped to an 18-month low in December: MW
A concerning drop in the Treasury market’s projected inflation rates, which began last October, seemed to stabilize as the new year approached. However, in the past week, a negative trend has resurfaced, raising doubts about monetary policy ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting (January 30), which is set to reveal new forecasts, a potential—but unlikely—adjustment in interest rates, and include a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
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The US has brought criminal charges against Huawei, China’s technology giant: Bloomberg
The White House has announced sanctions against Venezuela’s state-owned oil company: CNBC
Republicans are contemplating measures to prevent a future government shutdown: Politico
Liabilities from California wildfires have compelled PG&E to file for bankruptcy: WSJ
The Fed’s ongoing asset reduction strategy presents a policy challenge: Reuters
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis has delayed crucial economic reports: BEA
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (3-month average) indicates moderate US growth in December:
Investment-grade corporate bonds from overseas markets led last week’s significant gains across the major asset classes, based on a variety of exchange-traded funds trading through Friday, January 25.
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The US economy is anticipated to resume steady growth following the reopening of the government: CBS
President Trump indicates that another government shutdown is a possibility: The Hill
A NABE survey reveals economists believe a US recession this year is unlikely: AP
The leader of Venezuela’s opposition warns of a potential massive rally: CNN
The US Treasury is set to borrow an additional $1 trillion for the second consecutive year: Bloomberg
Concerns about low growth, inflation, and interest rates persist: NY Times
Business confidence in Germany has plummeted to a three-year low: RTT
Gold prices surged to a seven-month high last Friday:
By Mark Pilkington
Review via The Times
If you feel a twinge of guilt for supporting Amazon’s dominance over local shopping districts, Mark Pilkington’s ‘Retail Therapy’ might amplify your discomfort into a deeper sense of shame and anxiety. This book, drawing on evidence from both the UK and the US, urges readers to confront the unsettling reality that purchasing items online—from the comfort of your couch—endangers not only local commerce but also the livelihoods of the seven million individuals employed in retail, along with the industries reliant on them. Globally, approximately 192 million jobs—predominantly held by women—could be at risk, as outlined in this alarming narrative filled with striking statistics.
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The release of last year’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figure, originally scheduled for next week, is likely to be postponed due to the partial government shutdown. However, current estimates still suggest moderate growth. The median forecast from a compilation of nowcasts by The Capital Spectator anticipates a 2.9% increase for Q4 GDP, slightly higher than the previous projection (released on January 15).
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The Senate has rejected two proposals aimed at reopening the government: The Hill
New options for reopening the government are being explored in the Senate after failed attempts: Bloomberg
Venezuela’s military expresses support for Maduro, while Russia cautions the US against intervention: NY Times
Analyzing the implications of a US blockade on Venezuelan oil imports: AP
The US Economic Leading Index fell in December, indicating slower growth in 2019: CB
Some data in the Leading Index was estimated due to the government shutdown: MNI
Bloomberg’s consumer sentiment index has dropped to a near seven-month low: Bloomberg
US jobless claims have decreased to a 49-year low last week: Reuters
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index continues to indicate moderate growth in January: KC Fed
US growth appears to have increased in January according to PMI survey data: IHS Markit
Below-investment-grade fixed-income securities have continued to exhibit a remarkable year-to-date performance advantage over other segments of the US bond market, as indicated by a selection of exchange-traded funds. The impressive gains in junk bonds are particularly notable when compared to the mixed performance of other bonds.
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President Trump defers to Speaker Pelosi, agreeing to delay the State of the Union speech: Politico
Upcoming Senate votes aimed at reopening the government are expected to fail: Bloomberg
Aviation workers indicate that the government shutdown is increasing risks for air travel: NY Times
Venezuela’s opposition leader proclaims the presidency, gaining US support: Reuters
US business leaders maintain a positive outlook on the economy: NY Times
A recent poll indicates that US growth will slow in the first quarter due to the government shutdown: Reuters
The Eurozone economy is nearing stagnation as indicated by PMI survey data: IHS Markit
Global government debt reached $66 trillion by the end of 2018—doubling from the previous year: Fitch
The US FHFA House Price Index reported a 5.7% increase in October compared to the previous year: HousingWire
The Richmond Fed notes that manufacturing activity was ‘soft’ in January across its district: Richmond Fed
Earnings sentiment is at its lowest since mid-2016: BlackRock
