North Korea claims successful test of ‘a powerful warhead’: CNBC
Key points from today’s Mueller report release: Bloomberg
Herman Cain remains in contention for Fed board position: WSJ
Concerns among US automakers regarding possible import tariffs on car parts: Reuters
Eurozone growth shows sluggishness in April, nearing stagnation: IHS Markit
March retail spending in the UK remains robust despite Brexit uncertainties: Reuters
US trade deficit shrinks to its smallest margin in eight months as of February: MW
Two-thirds of CFOs forecast a US recession by late 2020: MW
Economists anticipate a slowdown in US GDP growth in Q1 according to Wall St Journal April survey: WSJ
GDPNow’s Q1 growth estimate has been revised upwards to +2.4%, surpassing Q4’s pace: Atlanta Fed
China’s equity markets are at the forefront of global gains this year, as reflected in various exchange-traded funds across major regions and markets. This positive trend is supported by recent optimistic economic data from China and growing hopes for a US-China trade agreement.
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US Attorney General approves indefinite detention rule for asylum seekers: Reuters
Trump vetoes measure to halt US involvement in Saudi-led Yemen conflict: Bloomberg
Chinese economy shows signs of stabilization in Q1: NY Times
German government reduces economic growth forecast for the second time in three months: Reuters
Increased activity spotted at North Korea’s primary nuclear facility: SCMP
Turkey’s lira drops to a six-month low as ruling party demands new elections: CNBC
Confidence among US home builders rises in April, reaching a six-month high: MW
US industrial output declined in March; the year-over-year growth trend remains slow:
Whenever there is a significant rise in gasoline or oil prices, commentators often focus on these increases and express concern if general inflation metrics fail to reflect the price hikes at the gas pumps. However, it is shortsighted to assume that a surge in energy prices will necessarily lead to higher overall inflation.
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House Democrats have issued a subpoena to Deutsche Bank in their investigation into Trump’s finances: Politico
Trump and Pompeo downplay North Korea’s deadlines regarding nuclear negotiations: Reuters
Bernie Sanders discloses ten years of tax returns: The Hill
Could US foreign policy regarding Iran and Venezuela disrupt the oil market? NY Times
April’s NY Fed Manufacturing Index rose, but future expectations fell to a three-year low: Bloomberg
US industrial production’s annual growth trend is once again easing in March:
Last week, a wide array of commodities experienced a significant uptick, showing the strongest performance among major asset classes evaluated through exchange-traded funds. This marks the second consecutive week where commodities have led the way in market growth.
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The Mueller report is scheduled for public release this week: Bloomberg
The EU is poised to commence delayed trade negotiations with the US: Reuters
Signs of a potential US-China trade agreement are boosting Asian stock markets: MW
The outlook for the Chinese economy is brightening: CNBC
Former central bankers caution that Trump’s criticisms could undermine the Fed’s independence: WSJ
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell faces a complex mix of political and economic challenges: NY Times
Could the arrival of spring stimulate US economic growth? MW
Rising fuel prices have contributed to an increase in US import prices for three consecutive months in March: CNBC
US Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in April, reflecting the first decline in three months: Bloomberg
A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero
By Tyler Cowen
Review via Reason
Could it be that your relationship with large tech companies is more beneficial than you realize? Economist Tyler Cowen of George Mason University argues that you should appreciate big businesses. His new book, *Big Business: A Love Letter to An American Anti-Hero,* extols the virtues of today’s controversial corporate giants. In true Cowenesque style, the book begins with a contrarian stance that ultimately appears self-evident by the conclusion, making readers reconsider their initial resistance. Even the staunchest critics of big business might find themselves softening their views about today’s industry leaders by the end (even if they are reluctant to admit it).
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Strategic Rebalancing
Nicolas Granger (Man AHL), et al.
April 3, 2019
A systematic rebalancing approach, such as reallocating to fixed portfolio weights either monthly or quarterly, is considered an active strategy. Winning asset classes are sold while underperforming assets are purchased. This can lead to significantly higher drawdowns during crises compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Our paper demonstrates that the negative convexity induced by rebalancing can be effectively mitigated using the popular 60-40 stock-bond allocation as a case study. One alternative method involves incorporating a trend-following strategy which provides positive convexity to counteract the drawdown effects from the mechanical rebalancing strategy. The second method we propose is termed strategic rebalancing, which employs intelligent rebalancing timing based on trend-following signals, without directly allocating to a trend-following strategy. For instance, if the trend-following model indicates a negative trend in stock markets, the rebalancing may be postponed.
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Allianz’s chief economic advisor claims the Fed is too dovish: CNBC
Key GOP support wanes for Herman Cain’s Fed nomination: Fox
Eurozone industrial activity declined less than anticipated in February: Reuters
China’s exports increased in March, but imports fell more than expected: Reuters
Revival of credit growth in China suggests stronger economic recovery: Bloomberg
Investors are weighing the growing risk of an earnings recession: MW
US wholesale prices saw a sharp increase in March, fueled by rising gasoline costs: MW
Jobless claims in the US dropped below 200,000 last week, the lowest level since 1969: CNBC
Conclusion
The economic landscape remains dynamic, with fluctuations in market trends, regulatory changes, and evolving international relations. These developments warrant close attention as they collectively shape the global economy moving forward. Keeping informed on these issues is essential for understanding potential impacts on both domestic and global scales.
