The US is weighing new trade tariffs on Europe: WSJ
China denounces the violent protests in Hong Kong: Reuters
The global economic slowdown is proving to be more severe than anticipated: BIS
Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts a global recession by 2020: Bloomberg
OPEC has prolonged oil production cuts for an additional nine months: CNBC
Investment in US private construction has dropped to a two-year low in May: CNBC
The global manufacturing sector has contracted for the second consecutive month in June: IHS Markit
PMI survey findings indicate sluggish growth within the US manufacturing sector: IHS Markit
The US ISM Manufacturing Index shows the slowest growth in over two years for June: MW
Nirvana engulfed global markets in June, with all major asset classes showcasing positive performance. Remarkably, last month’s widespread gains represent the second occurrence this year where every asset class experienced a rise within the same month (the first being in January).
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Trump declares that US-China trade negotiations are ‘back on track’: Reuters
OPEC is expected to continue oil production cuts: Reuters
Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone contracted for the fifth month in June: IHS Markit
China’s manufacturing sector showed a contraction in June: IHS Markit
The UK’s manufacturing recession escalated to its most significant decline in six years: IHS Markit
The trade war remains the primary concern for the US economy at present: CFA Inst
The Chicago PMI fell below the neutral mark of 50 in June: ISM Chicago
The Consumer Sentiment Index for the US remained high in June: MW
US consumer spending saw moderate growth of 1% year-on-year in May:
By Finn Brunton
Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press)
An intriguing and previously untold narrative of digital cash and its pioneers—from the 1970s experiments to the fervor surrounding Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin may seem to be an unparalleled digital cash innovation, it is rather the latest in a long sequence of similar initiatives dating back to the 1970s. The remarkable history behind cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin and its blockchain technology, has largely remained unspoken—until now. In Digital Cash, Finn Brunton uncovers how technological idealists and political dissidents developed experimental currency to realize their visions, whether for safeguarding privacy, dismantling governing bodies, or nurturing innovation and prosperity in an apocalyptic context.
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Searching for hidden value can be a rewarding investment strategy, but it often requires immense patience. Today’s update on The Capital Spectator’s semi-regular exploration of deep-value opportunities highlights the current situation through the lens of exchange-traded funds. While there are plenty of battered funds to evaluate, the depths of decline echo recent assessments, suggesting a familiar landscape.
Analysis of the second Democratic debate: Politico
G20 leaders address free trade and democracy conflicts: AP
Anticipations for the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting: CNBC
Trump jokes with Putin: Don’t interfere in elections: BBC
Trump mentions significant trade deals pending with Japan and India: WSJ
In May, pending home sales in the US saw a recovery, though the year-on-year trend remains negative: MW
US Q1 GDP growth remains unchanged at +3.1% according to government updates: Reuters
Jobless claims in the US reached a seven-week high last week: MW
This year, investors are enthusiastically embracing bond-market risk. Although the bull market in US stocks is remarkable, the enthusiasm in fixed income markets is equally compelling. Demand for bonds has boosted all significant categories of US fixed income for 2019, as evidenced by various exchange-traded funds.
Discussion of trade-war issues for Trump at the G20 summit: CNN
The US and China are reportedly considering a tentative trade-war truce: SCMP
Identifying winners and losers from the recent Democratic debate: USA Today
Protests in Hong Kong have resumed: Reuters
The Eurozone economic sentiment index has dropped to a three-year low in June: Reuters
The US international trade deficit expanded to a five-month peak in May: Bloomberg
US core durable goods orders show subdued growth of 1.3% year-on-year:
The Inverted Curve and Recession: A Hoax, When It Ends?
Yosef Bonaparte (University of Colorado at Denver)
June 17, 2019
This paper argues that the probability of an inverted yield curve predicting a recession is less than 3.9%, which is not statistically significant. It also explores why many investors still perceive a link between an inverted curve and recession. Research in behavioral psychology shows that negative events (for example, the 2007 financial crisis) tend to leave a stronger and lasting impression compared to positive events in investors’ memories. Ultimately, it suggests that the most reliable predictor of recession is current GDP growth.
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According to the US Treasury Secretary, the US-China trade deal is 90% complete: CNBC
Mueller will appear before Congress next month: WSJ
Trump warns of ‘obliteration’ if Iran targets anything American: Reuters
The possibility of a third Trump-Kim summit has been raised: CNN
Federal Reserve officials are downplaying rate cut expectations: MW
US Consumer Confidence Index has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years as of June: MW
