The first week of trading in the third quarter saw property shares in the US and international markets achieve the highest gains among the major asset classes, as indicated by a range of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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Robust job growth in the US dampens expectations for a rate cut: CNBC
Trump continues to criticize the Federal Reserve: Bloomberg
Greece elects a conservative government that vows tax cuts and investments: Reuters
The Turkish lira weakens following the dismissal of the central bank chief: CNBC
Deutsche Bank reveals significant layoffs and restructuring plans: WSJ
German industrial output rebounded, although year-over-year changes sank deeper into negative territory
US payrolls saw a sharp recovery in June: CNBC
Trend for US industrial/commercial loans fell to a six-month low in May:
By Sarah L. Quinn
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
Federal housing finance policy and mortgage-backed securities have attracted significant attention in recent years, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis. However, government credit issues have been a part of American life since the nation’s early days. From the national land credit policy established in the 1780s to the foundations of our current housing finance system, “American Bonds” explores the evolution of securitization and federal credit programs. Sarah Quinn illustrates how financial markets have been utilized by the U.S. government to address the nation’s social divides since the Westward expansion, with politicians from across the spectrum leveraging land sales, homeownership, and credit to create economic opportunities without the appearance of direct market intervention or wealth redistribution.
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Private payrolls in the US saw a significant rebound in June, defying pessimistic all forecasts according to the latest report from the Labor Department reports. While some analysts previously suggested that the modest job gains in May indicated a looming recession, the new data complicates that forecast and paints a different picture.
Equities across the globe are showing impressive gains this year, yet markets in Russia and Eastern Europe stand out, outpacing others in recent weeks based on a variety of exchange-traded products.
Does Trump’s Federal Reserve nominee heighten political risks for the central bank? NY Times
Economists forecast an increase in US job growth for June: Reuters
German factory orders plummeted in May: Bloomberg
Yields on German and French 10-year bonds reach record lows: CNBC
US jobless claims hold near half-century lows: MW
US trade deficit surged to a five-month high in May: Reuters
Job cuts in the US reached a ten-year high in the first half of 2019: CG&C
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index shows moderate growth despite easing in June: ISM
PMI survey results indicate “subdued growth” for the US services sector: IHS Markit
US factory orders continued their downward trend in May: Reuters
A slower growth trend is anticipated for US private payrolls in the upcoming June update:
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness…
And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.
The value factor appears to be struggling, but is not entirely lost. The pressing question is whether this once-prominent risk premium for equity investors will recover any time soon. While the future remains uncertain, we can investigate potential indicators that might explain the current challenges facing value investing.
Did China gain the upper hand after the Trump-Xi G20 meeting? CNBC
Trump nominates two individuals for the Federal Reserve Board: Bloomberg
Christine Lagarde of the IMF is set to lead the European Central Bank: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI indicates ‘solid growth’ for June: IHS Markit
China’s economy experienced a slowdown in June, recording its weakest performance since last October: IHS Markit
The one-year trend for US private payrolls is projected to stabilize at +1.9%:
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) saw an increase in June, rising to an annualized rate of 4.8%. This revision represents a slight uptick from last month’s projection of 4.5%. The GMI is an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio containing all major asset classes (excluding cash). This performance estimate reflects the expected premium over the long-term “risk-free” rate.
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In summary, recent shifts in the markets and economic indicators suggest a complex landscape for investors. While some asset classes show promising performance, uncertainties remain, particularly around economic policies and geopolitical tensions. Staying informed will be crucial in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.
