China asserts it will “never yield to external pressure” in ongoing trade negotiations: Reuters
Analysts predict the US-China trade conflict will span decades: NY Times
White House economic adviser states, “both parties will face consequences” in the ongoing trade war:CNBC
Experts outline multiple ways in which China might respond to US tariffs: CNBC
Attack on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf: Reuters
US job growth for the smallest firms drops to an 8-year low amid a tight labor market: WSJ
US consumer inflation remains stable at approximately 2% for the past year as of April: CNBC
By Oliver Bullough
Review via Inc.com
Prepare for an eye-opening experience with “Moneyland,” which reveals the intricate ways the ultra-wealthy, particularly despots and criminals, create shell corporations in various jurisdictions (including some U.S. states) to conceal a trillion dollars of illicit wealth annually. The book discusses how the real estate sector in both the U.S. and U.K. accommodates this capital, while influential figures within those industries—many of whom hold significant positions in our government—are incentivized to protect these autocrats. It’s essential reading for anyone keen to understand the true dynamics of wealth in today’s world.
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Tail Risk Management for Multi-Asset Multi-Factor Strategies
David Chambers (University of Cambridge), et al.
January 8, 2019
Multi-asset multi-factor portfolio allocation generally revolves around a risk-centric paradigm that aims to maintain equal volatility risk budgets. Due to the highly skewed nature of common factors, we integrate tail risk management into the structuring of multi-asset multi-factor portfolios. Our findings indicate that the minimum CVaR concentration methodology proposed by Boudt, Carl, and Peterson (2013) significantly reduces the risks associated with tail risk concentrations. Furthermore, diversifying across various assets and style factors inherently serves as a robust method for tail risk mitigation, regardless of the specific risk-based allocation strategy used.
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Trump increases tariffs on China, prompting a retaliatory vow from Beijing: CNBC
US-China trade negotiations set to recommence today: CNN
Projected economic repercussions of rising tariffs in the US-China trade conflict: MW
US seizes a North Korean vessel for violating international sanctions: AP
UK economic growth shows improvement in the first quarter: BBC
US jobless claims decreased last week, nearing a 50-year low: MW
US producer prices rose less than anticipated in April:WSJ
US trade deficit saw a minor increase in March: MW
BlackRock strategist warns that the yield curve is losing its predictive capability: Bloomberg
Negative yield curve for the 10-year and 3-month bonds indicates an elevated recession risk: CNBC
The 5-year Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast dipped to a six-week low ahead of the forthcoming April Consumer Price Index (CPI) update. This softened outlook on inflation could stem from the ongoing US-China trade dispute. Alternatively, the market may be anticipating a further easing of the already subdued inflation trend in the upcoming months.
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A potential constitutional crisis looms in the confrontation between Trump and Congress:CNN
House votes along party lines to hold Attorney General Barr in contempt:The Hill
How many investigations into Trump is Congress currently managing? A considerable number:Politico
North Korea launched another missile on Thursday:CNBC
Trump accuses China of “breaking the deal” during trade discussions:Bloomberg
US and China prepare to resume talks prior to a possible tariff increase on Friday:AP
US-led naval exercises in the South China Sea challenge Beijing:Reuters
China’s consumer inflation rate surged to a six-month peak in April:SCMP
Annual growth in US business lending declined in March; marking the first drop in six months
US fixed income markets were already experiencing a positive trend this year, but this week’s heightened apprehension regarding the US-China trade conflict has further bolstered the bond market as new risk-off sentiments negatively affect global equity markets.
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Iran’s president announces a partial exit from the nuclear agreement:CNN
What are the potential outcomes of the renewed US-China trade conflict?Bloomberg
Reports indicate that China has backtracked on the US draft of the trade deal:Reuters
China’s trade surplus narrowed considerably in April, surprising analysts: CNBC
Trump’s taxes indicate a $1 billion loss for the years 1985-1994:NY Times
Consumer credit growth in the US slackened to a nine-month low in March:Bloomberg
The Economic Uncertainty Policy Index for the US has surged to its highest point since 2017:FRED
US job openings increased significantly in March, reflecting a tightening labor market:Reuters
Recent public remarks from Federal Reserve officials indicate a consensus that the current slowdown in a key measure of core inflation is “temporary.” The first solid indicator regarding this view will come from this Friday’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
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White House ramps up plans to elevate tariffs on Chinese products:WSJ
China’s Vice Premier scheduled to attend trade discussions in the US:Reuters
Treasury Secretary declines House requests for Trump’s tax returns:Politico
Myanmar frees two Reuters journalists:Reuters
German factory orders show slight recovery in March:Bloomberg
Japan Manufacturing PMI indicates growth returned in April, albeit marginally:IHS Markit
Sluggish global economic growth eases to a three-month low in April:IHS Markit
Conclusion
The dynamics of international trade, economic indicators, and the interplay of political factors are intricately connected, shaping the global landscape. Keeping abreast of these elements is essential for navigating the complexities of modern economics effectively.
