In recent news, President Trump has decided to extend restrictions on work visas until the end of the year, as reported by Politico. Meanwhile, Trump affirmed that the trade agreement with China remains “fully intact,” according to Bloomberg. Additionally, the White House trade adviser denied claims that the China trade deal is “over,” as stated in an article from CNBC.
In international relations, the Trump administration has designated more Chinese media outlets as “foreign missions,” a move covered by NPR. Economic indicators show a slight easing in the Eurozone recession for a second consecutive month in June, as noted by IHS Markit. In the UK, while the economy remains in recession, signs of recovery are emerging, according to another report from IHS Markit.
Additionally, the Chicago Federal Reserve’s National Activity Index showed a strong rebound in May, as reported by Chicago Fed. However, existing home sales in the US dropped sharply in May to their lowest level in a decade, according to MarketWatch.
Over the trading week leading up to June 19, broad commodities and US stocks recorded the strongest gains among major asset classes, according to a review of exchange-traded funds detailed in Capitol Spectator.
Emerging global trends include a record increase in Covid-19 cases, according to the World Health Organization as reported by Reuters. Furthermore, a study suggests that blood type may be a risk factor for contracting the virus, as noted by MarketWatch.
Additionally, concerns are rising over the potential for conflict between Egypt and Turkey amid ongoing battles in Libya, according to Jerusalem Post. On the diplomatic front, India is considering strengthening ties with the US following a deadly clash with China, as reported by Wall Street Journal.
Domestically, cash deposits at US banks have surged to record levels, as detailed by CNBC. Home-mortgage delinquencies also hit a nine-year high in May, as shown in a report by Bloomberg. Investors are becoming increasingly interested in betting on a steeper yield curve, as noted by Bloomberg. Companies are raising their cash reserves as the pandemic reshapes priorities, according to Wall Street Journal.
As of now, nearly half of US states are reporting increases in Covid-19 cases, as reported by CNN. Additionally, daily fatalities from Covid-19 in the US have reached a post-peak low:
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The worst phase of the coronavirus recession in the United States appears to be behind us, and the process of recovery is underway. However, uncertainty looms over the vigor of this recovery, especially following a recent disappointing update on jobless claims, which remain elevated, as noted by MarketWatch.
The US Supreme Court has dealt a significant blow to Trump’s immigration policies, according to a report by Reuters. In the realm of public health, several states, including California, Arizona, Florida, and Texas, are witnessing record spikes in Covid-19 cases as covered by CNBC.
Additionally, Trump has reiterated threats to sever ties with China following a diplomatic meeting, as noted by Reuters. However, China is still positioned to increase its purchases of US agricultural products, according to Bloomberg.
Economic contexts also reveal the UK government’s debt surpassing 100% of GDP, a historical first since 1963, as reported by Bloomberg. In international tensions, a Chinese think-tank has provoked concern in India regarding territorial claims amidst a border clash, as noted by The Hindu. In better news, UK retail sales showed signs of recovery in May, according to BBC.
For homeowners, US mortgage rates have dropped to a historic low of 3.13% for 30-year fixed loans, as reported by MarketWatch. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index has shown a robust rebound in June as noted in a report from Philadelphia Fed. However, jobless claims in the US continued to show a sharp rise last week at over 1.5 million, as highlighted by CNBC.
As of now, only three sectors within US equity markets are showing year-to-date gains. The communications services and consumer discretionary sectors have joined technology in reporting positive performance for 2020, based on data from various exchange-traded funds. Conversely, the remaining eight sectors are still in negative territory.
According to a recent book by John Bolton, Trump sought political assistance from China’s Xi Jinping, as revealed by Politico. Additionally, officials in Oklahoma are expressing concerns that Trump’s rally plans could exacerbate Covid-19 infections, as detailed by CBS News.
As international tensions rise, pressure mounts on India to take action following a border clash with China, as indicated by CNBC. In contrast, China’s chief epidemiologist has declared that the coronavirus outbreak in Beijing is now under control, per coverage by CNBC.
Despite the pandemic, global investment flows to China remain robust, according to Bloomberg. In the realm of employment, US jobless claims are expected to stay elevated in the upcoming update, as reported by Reuters.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has indicated that global tax discussions have hit a stalemate, according to a report from Wall Street Journal. On another note, US Secretary of State Pompeo met with China’s top diplomat amidst escalating tensions, as per NPR. Moreover, the wealthiest Americans have reduced their spending the most during the recession, according to a report by New York Times.
In brighter news for the housing market, mortgage applications have surged to an 11-year high, as mentioned by CNBC. Additionally, US housing starts have shown a modest increase in May after a significant decline, as reported by MarketWatch.
While the signs suggest a tentative “yes” regarding the end of the downturn, caution is warranted as this response comes with several important qualifiers—it is too early to celebrate just yet.
A breakthrough steroid promising to save lives among Covid-19 patients has been reported by CNBC. On the vaccine front, the US is concentrating its resources on seven promising candidates for financial support, per Reuters.
Meanwhile, six states in the US have reported record high rates of new coronavirus infections, according to Reuters. The Pentagon has accused China of exploiting the situation to engage in “economic warfare” against the US, as reported by CNN.
In other news, India has reported 20 soldiers dead as a result of the border clash with China, based on a report from BBC. Meanwhile, China is transitioning to an emergency state as a resurgence of coronavirus cases emerges in Beijing, covered by USA Today.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the US economy might be at risk of long-term damage, as detailed in a report from Wall Street Journal. On a brighter note, homebuilder sentiment saw a significant increase in June, marking the largest improvement on record, per CNBC. Additionally, US industrial production witnessed a 1.4% rise in May, marking the first increase in three months as indicated by MarketWatch. Retail sales also rebounded sharply in May, marking the highest monthly gain on record as reported by CNBC.
In conclusion, recent developments highlight a complex interplay of economic and social issues both in the US and globally. While there are glimmers of hope for recovery, concerns remain regarding public health and the geopolitical landscape. It is essential to navigate these challenges with caution and an informed perspective.
