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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

Rescue operations are ongoing in Beirut following a devastating explosion at the port: BBC
Progress on the coronavirus relief bill is reported from both Democrats and Republicans: CNBC
Tensions between China and Taiwan may be escalating: CNBC
Fifth of US small businesses are laying off or planning to lay off employees: BBG
Investors are looking for opportunities amid a potential Democratic win in November: II
Eurozone Composite PMI indicates the fastest output growth in two years during July: IHS Markit
UK Services PMI shows its strongest growth in five years for July: IHS Markit
China’s Services PMI reveals a slowdown in growth for July: Reuters
US factory orders experienced a second consecutive month of increase in June: MW
Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a new record high: BBC

The long-term risk premium estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) has increased slightly in July, now standing at 4.8%. This annualized perspective on the GMI reflects long-term expectations above the ‘risk-free’ rate, based on a risk-focused model proposed by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below).
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No agreement has been reached between the White House and Democrats on the coronavirus relief package: CNBC
Trump has stated that the US Treasury should receive a payout if an American company acquires TikTok: BBC
China has responded that it will not tolerate the US ‘theft’ of TikTok: Bloomberg
Trump asserts his authority to issue an executive order regarding mail-in voting: Politico
Is Turkey a growing risk for NATO from the inside? NY Times
The coronavirus crisis has underscored the Fed’s role as a global lender: WSJ
Global manufacturing activity saw expansion in July— marking its first increase since January: IHS Markit
US construction spending hit a one-year low in June: Reuters
According to the US Manufacturing PMI, the manufacturing sector continued its rebound in July: IHS Markit
The US ISM Manufacturing Index indicates that sector growth in July occurred at the fastest rate in 15 months: MW

Emerging market stocks continue to outperform other major asset classes, securing the top position for returns in July, marking the second consecutive month of strong performance.
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Dr. Birx, coordinator of the White House task force, stated that the US has entered a “new phase” of the pandemic: CNN
Discussions around US stimulus packages remain stalled in Washington: CNBC
The Fed may reconsider its approach to preemptively raising rates to curb inflation: WSJ
On August 2, new Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US fell to their lowest levels in four weeks: JHU
Could the decline of the US dollar be linked to the nation’s battle with the coronavirus? BBG
Microsoft continues discussions to acquire TikTok’s US operations from its Chinese parent company: NYT
Lord & Taylor, the oldest department store in the US, has filed for bankruptcy: NPR
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI survey indicates a return to modest growth in July: IHS Markit
The UK’s manufacturing output grew to a 32-month high in July: IHS Markit
The real yield on US 10-year Treasuries dropped to -1.0% last week, marking a record low:

How to Destroy America in Three Easy Steps
Ben Shapiro
Excerpt via NY Post
It is undeniable that capitalism, rooted in the protection of property rights as envisioned by the Founding Fathers, has been remarkably effective in fostering peace and prosperity, both within the United States and globally. Since the Enlightenment, the establishment of individual rights and the safeguarding of private property — the foundational elements of capitalism — have led to unprecedented growth in global GDP.

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The significant plunge in US economic output during the second quarter was the largest decline in GDP ever recorded and came as no surprise. Economists and macroeconomic models had long anticipated such a downturn as the economy shut down to combat Covid-19. Recent government data confirmed these fears, allowing attention to shift towards expectations for the latter half of this year.

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Trump has suggested postponing the US election; lawmakers from both parties have rejected this idea: Reuters
Congress remains deadlocked over a relief package for the virus: Bloomberg
Hurricane Isaias is expected to threaten the US east coast in the coming days: NHC
Big Technology companies report impressive growth in earnings and revenue: WSJ
The pandemic has strengthened the influence and scope of Big Tech: CNN
Eurozone GDP recorded a dramatic decline in Q2, marking the worst drop on record: DW
China’s economic rebound continues in July, according to PMI survey data: SCMP
Weekly jobless claims rose sharply—up 1.434 million last week: CNBC
US GDP saw a historic crash in Q2, declining by 32.9% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate: MW

A severe supply-side shock has significantly impacted the global economy. Economic theory indicates that such an event would ordinarily lead to a sharp rise in prices, as a decrease in supply typically results in higher prices. However, the circumstances surrounding the 2020 coronavirus crisis have deviated from this norm.
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There is currently no resolution in the negotiations for coronavirus relief legislation: The Hill
The Fed has decided to maintain its current interest rates, signaling its intent to continue strong monetary support: CNBC
According to Chairman Powell, the economic future appears “extraordinarily uncertain”: NYT
The small business sector is facing a critical risk of mass closures: Reuters
The forthcoming Q2 GDP report is expected to reveal a historic contraction: Reuters
Challenges posed by misinformation regarding the coronavirus are complicating crisis management efforts: AP
Big Tech businesses faced intense scrutiny during a recent congressional hearing: WSJ
Germany’s economy was hit hard in Q2, with GDP plummeting by 10.1%: Bloomberg
Pending home sales in the US surged by nearly 17% in June: CNBC
Gold prices have risen to a record high: CNN

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