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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

* President Biden warns Putin that the US may retaliate against future cyberattacks.
* Federal Reserve officials indicate that rate hikes may occur sooner than anticipated, possibly in 2023.
* Treasury Secretary Yellen suggests that the US will begin to decouple from China in various sectors.
* There is now strong bipartisan support in the Senate for the infrastructure spending plan.
* The real yield on US junk bonds has dropped below zero for the first time in history.
* Certain areas in the US have become the hottest spots on Earth
.
* Import prices in the US
continued to rise sharply in May.
* US housing starts experienced a lower than expected increase in May, coinciding with a decline in building permits:

The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates at their current level in today’s policy announcement. The target range for the federal funds rate remains between 0% and 0.25%, indicating no immediate changes on that front. However, the Fed’s updated economic forecasts reveal a potential shift in the narrative surrounding the status quo.

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The value investing strategy appears to be regaining traction after a prolonged period of underperformance. Analysts are actively debating whether this resurgence is merely a temporary trend or a more significant development, yet this sector of the investment landscape is currently challenging the skeptics who suggested it had lost its relevance.

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* President Biden meets with Putin today in Geneva.
* Israel has conducted airstrikes in Gaza, marking its first military action since last month’s ceasefire.
* No significant policy alterations are anticipated from today’s Fed announcement.
* A federal judge has blocked Biden’s ban on new oil and gas leases.
* China’s industrial output and retail sales grew less than expected in May.
* The New York Fed’s manufacturing index indicates slower growth for the second consecutive month in June.
* Producer price inflation accelerated in May.
* US industrial production rebounded in May after a lackluster performance in April.
* US retail sales decreased more than expected for May:

The recent downturn in the bond market has seen a temporary reprieve over the past two months. Interest rates have fallen in recent weeks, leading to an uptick in bond prices. The primary consideration now is whether this is a fleeting development or the onset of a longer-term ascent for fixed-income investments.

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* The change in leadership in Israel opens new avenues for diplomatic relations with the US.
* Will the Fed signal that earlier rate hikes are on the horizon during this week’s policy meeting?
* A retail association urges the White House to address the congestion issues at ports.
* The global housing markets are showing signs of potential bubbles.
* Will the persistent job loss from the pandemic keep inflation under control?
* The Senate GOP leader vows to block any nominee put forth by Biden for the Supreme Court.
* The Airbus-Boeing trade dispute between the US and EU is nearing resolution after 17 years.
* US stocks have reached record highs for three consecutive trading days:

Real estate stocks led the major asset classes in performance last week, marking a second consecutive week of strong gains based on trading through Friday’s close (June 11).

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* Benjamin Netanyahu has been voted out of power after 12 years as prime minister of Israel.
* This upcoming meeting between Biden and Putin is expected to be tense.
* G7 nations have come to an agreement to establish an infrastructure plan to counter China’s initiatives.
* A reported leak at a Chinese nuclear facility is being monitored by the US.
* The markets allow for little margin for error concerning inflation expectations.
* Eurozone industrial output increased significantly in April, exceeding expectations.
* Many are wondering when the NBER will announce an end date to the pandemic recession.
* US workers are quitting their jobs at the highest rate in more than two decades.
* Early June demonstrated a rebound in US consumer sentiment:

This year, unmanaged beta risk continues to outpace our three risk-managed strategies in terms of returns. The Global Beta 16 Index (G.B16), which represents the 16-fund option set for proprietary portfolios, maintains a commendable lead.

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The Banks Did It: An Anatomy of the Financial Crisis
Neil Fligstein
Summary via publisher (Harvard U. Press)
More than a decade after the 2008 financial crisis triggered a global recession, a comprehensive explanation for the events remains elusive. Existing narratives highlight various culprits—financial instruments, traders, regulators, and capital flows—but often fail to connect the dots. Neil Fligstein argues that the convergence of major US banks around a similar business model—focusing on deriving profits from the securitization of mortgages—was pivotal. But how did this convergence occur, and why?

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