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<p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong><a style="color: #ff0000;" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3919264">Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257 – 2019</a></strong></span><br/>Andrew Metrick and Paul Schmelzing (Yale)<br/><strong>September 7, 2021</strong><br/><em>This article introduces a comprehensive database detailing banking-crisis interventions from the 13th century to 2019. It encompasses 1,886 interventions categorized into 20 types across 138 countries. This database captures interventions not just during primary banking crises documented in major chronologies but also includes numerous actions taken during non-crisis periods. Over the centuries, we have observed a significant evolution in intervention methods—shifting from traditional practices like lender-of-last-resort support and bank holidays to increased reliance on capital infusions and extensive liability guarantees. Additionally, the frequency and scale of these interventions highlight a troubling trend; the financial sector's crisis response has surged notably in the post-Bretton Woods era, part of a broader trend that has seen global intervention activities grow since at least the late 17th century.</em></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-17-sep-2021-financial-shocks-and-crises/#more-16712" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-17-sep-2021-financial-shocks-and-crises/" title="6:49 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-17T06:49:17-04:00">September 17, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* The FDA plans to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-panel-to-weigh-covid-19-booster-shots-as-health-officials-debate-need-11631871003?mod=hp_lead_pos1">evaluate</a> the evidence regarding the Covid-19 booster shot recommendation.<br/>* Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will announce a bond taper in November, as a recent <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-17/fed-seen-announcing-bond-taper-in-november-rate-liftoff-in-2023?srnd=premium">survey suggests</a>.<br/>* The chief of the IMF has faced <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/world-bank-kills-business-climate-report-after-ethics-probe-cites-undue-pressure-2021-09-16/">criticism</a> for allegedly favoring China during her leadership at the World Bank.<br/>* China has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/china-applies-to-join-trans-pacific-trade-pact-to-boost-economic-clout.html">applied</a> to join the trans-Pacific trade pact that the US rejected.<br/>* Experts speculate whether Putin’s authoritarianism will <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/russia-state-duma-election-will-boost-authoritarianism-experts-say.html">intensify</a> following Russia’s elections.<br/>* The number of migrants has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/us/texas-migrants-del-rio.html">increased</a> within a temporary camp in Del Rio, Texas.<br/>* Invesco is reportedly discussing a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/invesco-in-talks-to-merge-with-state-streets-asset-management-business-11631829425">merger</a> with State Street’s asset-management division.<br/>* Jobless claims in the US <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-september-11-2021-190708680.html">climbed</a> last week but are still close to pandemic lows.<br/>* The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index indicates a <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2021-09">strong uptick</a> in business activity for September.<br/>* US retail sales <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/retail-sales-unexpectedly-rise-0point7percent-in-august-vs-expected-decline-of-0point8percent.html">increased</a> in August, significantly surpassing estimates for a decline.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/retail.17sep2021.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16714" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/retail.17sep2021.png" alt="" width="656" height="411" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-17-september-2021/" title="6:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-17T06:43:45-04:00">September 17, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The ongoing economic expansion in the US is notable for its robustness; however, there is a significant exception: personal income levels. While employment, consumer spending, and industrial production—often referred to as the big four macro indicators—are showing a healthy recovery, income growth for consumers has lagged remarkably behind trends observed in past economic recoveries since 1970.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-income-remains-weak-outlier-in-us-expansion/#more-16707" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-income-remains-weak-outlier-in-us-expansion/" title="7:22 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-16T07:22:11-04:00">September 16, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* Evolving political tensions <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/15/politics/debt-ceiling-showdown/index.html">grow</a> in Washington amid an upcoming debt-ceiling negotiation.<br/>* Biden’s economic legislation faces <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/biden-s-economic-plan-at-risk-of-delays-amid-democratic-rifts?srnd=premium">potential delays</a> as Democratic leaders discuss various aspects.<br/>* A new security alliance between the US, UK, and Australia has been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837">formed</a> to address challenges posed by China.<br/>* The New York Fed’s Manufacturing Index indicates a quickening pace of growth in the sector as <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview">reported in September</a>.<br/>* August saw US import prices <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/15/us-import-prices-unexpectedly-fall-in-august.html">decline</a> for the first time in ten months.<br/>* Business inflation expectations from the Atlanta Fed <a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/bie">remain</a> elevated for September.<br/>* The US poverty rate <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/stimulus-checks-unemployment-benefits-lowered-poverty-in-2020.html">decreased</a> in 2020, largely due to stimulus payments and unemployment benefits.<br/>* Industrial output growth in the US <a href="https://www.mdm.com/news/research/economic-trends/hurricane-ida-stunts-industrial-production-in-august/">slowed</a> in August, partly as a result of Hurricane Ida.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/indpro.16sep2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16706" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/indpro.16sep2021.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-16-september-2021/" title="5:57 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-16T05:57:11-04:00">September 16, 2021</time></a>
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<p>In August, US consumer inflation <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-inflation-trend-still-appears-to-be-peaking-but-slowly/">moderated more than anticipated,</a> suggesting that the recent inflationary pressure may be easing. However, despite this potential indication for various commodities, the market seems unaffected.</p>
<p><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-15-september"><em>continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</em></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-15-september-2021/" title="6:42 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-15T18:42:07-04:00">September 15, 2021</time></a>
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<p>In August, the one-year trend of US consumer inflation showed signs of easing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics <a href="https://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">report</a>. Although the inflation rate remains high, new analyses suggest that the decline from the recent peak will occur gradually.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-inflation-trend-still-appears-to-be-peaking-but-slowly/#more-16700" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-inflation-trend-still-appears-to-be-peaking-but-slowly/" title="7:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-15T07:33:48-04:00">September 15, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* North and South Korea <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/15/asia/north-korea-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html">conduct missile tests</a> amid rising tensions on the peninsula.<br/>* California Governor Gavin Newsom <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-california-climate-elections-a590782877be099d44f1766b2d138394">successfully wins</a> the recall election.<br/>* Most Americans are projected to receive tax cuts under the Democrats’ proposed tax code changes, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-tax-plan-would-cut-bills-most-americans-congressional-panel-2021-09-14/">according to estimates</a>.<br/>* Consumer inflation expectations have risen once again in August, as reported by a NY Fed survey <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2021/20210913">results indicate</a>.<br/>* China’s retail sales growth in July came in <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/15/chinas-retail-sales-grew-far-slower-than-expected-in-august.html">much weaker</a> than anticipated.<br/>* Eurozone industrial production has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/eurozone-economy-industrialoutput/euro-zone-production-stronger-than-expected-in-july-idUSKBN2GB0SX">exceeded</a> expectations for August.<br/>* US small business sentiment remains <a href="https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/">below par</a> compared to historical averages in August.<br/>* The SEC chairman <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/cryptocurrency-regulation-sec-chair-gary-gensler-grilled-by-senators.html">indicated</a> that regulations for cryptocurrency are forthcoming.<br/>* The US Consumer Price Index <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/14/consumer-price-index-august-2021.html">rose</a> less than expected in August:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/cpi.2021-09-14.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16699" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/cpi.2021-09-14.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-15-september-2021/" title="6:00 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-15T06:00:49-04:00">September 15, 2021</time></a>
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<p>Is the behavior of the stock market shifting? Are winning streaks extending while corrections shorten?</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/profiling-winning-and-losing-streaks-for-the-us-stock-market/#more-16692" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/profiling-winning-and-losing-streaks-for-the-us-stock-market/" title="7:39 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-14T07:39:20-04:00">September 14, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* House Democrats have proposed <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/13/house-democrats-propose-tax-increases-in-3point5-trillion-budget-bill.html">new tax hikes</a> to finance a $3.5 trillion spending plan.<br/>* Hurricane Nicholas has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/09/14/1036860928/hurricane-nicholas-makes-landfall-on-the-texas-coast">made landfall</a> along the Texas coast.<br/>* The Delta variant of coronavirus is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-q3-gdp-nowcast-september/?srnd=economics-vp">affecting</a> economies worldwide.<br/>* Covid-19 infections have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-reports-92-new-covid-19-cases-sept-13-vs-49-day-ago-2021-09-14/">risen significantly</a> in China’s southeastern province of Fujian.<br/>* California’s Governor Newsom is favoured to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/">secure</a> victory in today’s recall election.<br/>* UK payroll data for companies <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-payrolled-employment-rises-by-record-241000-august-2021-09-14/">showed a remarkable increase</a> in August.<br/>* Apple <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/13/apple-zero-day-nso-pegasus/">released</a> an urgent security update for its iPhones in response to a spyware threat.<br/>* US small-cap stocks are continuing to lag behind large-caps:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/large.cap_.small_.cap_.13sep2021.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16691" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/large.cap_.small_.cap_.13sep2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-september-2021/" title="6:09 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-14T06:09:35-04:00">September 14, 2021</time></a>
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<p>During the trading week ending September 10, nearly every major asset class experienced a decline, based on data from a variety of ETFs. The sole exception was US inflation-indexed Treasuries, which showed gains.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/most-markets-retreated-last-week/#more-16684" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/most-markets-retreated-last-week/" title="6:15 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-09-13T06:15:01-04:00">September 13, 2021</time></a>
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