Skip to content
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* Russian forces <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/01/huge-convoy-of-russian-vehicles-approaching-kyiv.html">prepare to launch</a> a full-scale attack on Kyiv, Ukraine.<br/>* The US economy <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-positioned-to-withstand-economic-shock-from-ukraine-crisis-11646083994">is expected</a> to withstand the economic shock from the Ukraine crisis.<br/>* Western sanctions <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/28/ukraine-war-russians-wait-in-queues-for-cash-as-rouble-plunges-and-hyperinflation-looms">threaten</a> to escalate inflation and shortages in Russia.<br/>* The Russian ruble <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-sanctions/">plummeted</a> nearly 30% against the US dollar on Monday.<br/>* Russian markets are increasingly <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/russian-markets-start-to-look-uninvestable-as-sanctions-bite?srnd=premium">deemed uninvestable</a>.<br/>* The ICC is set to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/28/1083598057/icc-ukraine-investigation">investigate</a> allegations of war crimes in Ukraine.<br/>* Major oil companies like Shell and BP are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/business/russia-oil-companies.html">withdrawing</a> from agreements with Russia.<br/>* China's factory activity <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSAZN027TQU?il=0">exhibited slight expansion</a> in February.<br/>* The US trade deficit in goods <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/us-goods-trade-deficit-hits-record-high-january-2022-02-28/">rose</a> sharply to a record high in January.<br/>* The 10-year Treasury yield fell to a three-week low due to increased risk-off sentiment:</p>
<div class="entry-content">
Last week, markets attempted to overlook the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as the harsh realities of warfare become more apparent and the economic consequences spread globally, market sentiment is expected to face increased strain in the coming days.
Continue reading →
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* Russian and Ukrainian delegates will <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-defenders-hold-kyiv-battle-for-kharkiv-after-night-of-russian-attacks-11645957216">engage in discussions</a> as the conflict continues.<br/>* Ukrainian President states that the next 24 hours will be critical for the nation’s defense, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/next-24-hours-are-crucial-in-ukraine-as-resistance-faces-pressure.html">emphasizing</a> the urgency of the situation.<br/>* The West has imposed further sanctions on Russia, largely <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-sanctions-over-ukraine-largely-spare-energy-sector-vital-to-europe-11645970890">exempting</a> energy exports.<br/>* President Putin has placed nuclear forces on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550">high alert</a>.<br/>* The Russian ruble has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/28/russian-ruble-dives-nearly-30percent-against-the-dollar-amid-sanctions-ukraine-crisis.html">collapsed</a> amidst escalating financial sanctions.<br/>* JP Morgan warns that selling off equities carries significant <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/jpmorgan-s-matejka-says-selling-stocks-now-carries-too-much-risk?srnd=premium">whipsaw risk</a>.<br/>* The geopolitical turmoil will <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/global-consumers-surprising-resiliency-is-tested-anew-by-war?srnd=economics-vp">challenge</a> consumer spending habits.<br/>* US consumer spending showed a strong increase in January despite rising inflation, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-january-2022-inflation-omicron-11645735669">according to recent data</a>.<br/>* Real Treasury yields in the US are rebounding, though they remain deeply negative:</p>
<div class="entry-content">
<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Next-Age-Uncertainty-Riskier-Future/dp/0735243905?keywords=The+Next+Age+of+Uncertainty%3A+How+the+World+Can+Adapt+to+a+Riskier+Future&qid=1645721402&s=books&sr=1-1&linkCode=li3&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=9f4450008780fe7957a0cd404351cf65&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=0735243905&Format=_SL250_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li3&o=1&a=0735243905" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/33QcK7s">The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future</a><br/>Stephen Poloz<br/><strong><a href="https://financialpost.com/news/economy/stephen-poloz-explains-why-volatility-is-trending-up-for-the-next-decade">Interview</a> with author via Financial Post</strong><br/>Stephen Poloz, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, identifies five "tectonic" forces—an aging population, technological advancement, rising inequality, debt escalation, and climate change—that are expected to create crises in the coming decade. The discussion covers the implications of these shifts, energy transitions, inflation, rising interest rates, and other significant topics.</p>
Continue reading →
<div class="entry-content">
The recent invasion of Ukraine by Russia has abruptly shattered the long period of relative peace in Europe. For years, many believed that the tranquility observed on the continent and its surrounding areas had become a new normal, erasing centuries of conflict from our consciousness. However, this latest turn of events serves as a stark reminder that the historical trends of warfare cannot be easily dismissed.
Continue reading →
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* Russian troops <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/europe/ukraine-russia-invasion-friday-intl-hnk/index.html">advance towards</a> Kyiv, Ukraine's capital.<br/>* The Kremlin is set to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-kyiv-6ccba0905f1871992b93712d3585f548">consider</a> Ukraine's proposal for a neutral status.<br/>* Nations worldwide are <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/business/list-global-sanctions-russia-ukraine-war-intl-hnk/index.html">imposing new sanctions</a> on Russia.<br/>* The war in Ukraine <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-invasion-scrambles-prospects-for-global-economy-11645699066">reshapes</a> the risk landscape for the global economy.<br/>* Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/business/economy/interest-rates-russia-ukraine.html">influence</a> the Federal Reserve's rate-hike strategy?<br/>* The EU aims to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-to-cut-70-of-russias-banking-system-off-from-global-markets-11645760548">disconnect 70%</a> of Russia’s banking system from global markets.<br/>* US officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/us/politics/us-china-russia-ukraine.html">sought assistance</a> from China to prevent the war, which China declined.<br/>* Russia’s invasion threatens <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/be468d75-a085-462d-99c8-359abe8a4ae6">critical commodity exports</a>.<br/>* US growth <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index">accelerated in January</a>, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.<br/>* Jobless claims in the US <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/jobless-claims-gdp.html">decreased</a> last week, and Q4 GDP growth has been slightly revised upward.<br/>* Brent oil prices surged on Thursday, nearing $100 per barrel:</p>
<div class="entry-content">
The subtlety of Russia’s aggressive posture towards Ukraine has dissipated, culminating in a full-scale military invasion. The outcome of this situation remains uncertain, but it is evident that a major shift in geopolitical dynamics has been set in motion. The implications for the global economy, financial markets, and international relations are still unclear. As this unnecessary conflict unfolds on the eastern borders of Europe, three crucial questions arise for consideration.
Continue reading →
