The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters
Juliette Kayyem
Interview with author via Lawfare
Nowadays, it feels as though we are perpetually surrounded by crises, often struggling to keep pace when they arise. The focus has shifted from merely preventing disasters to effectively utilizing our resources to mitigate their impacts when they occur.
Juliette Kayyem addresses this pressing issue in her new book, “The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters.” Kayyem, a lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and a national security analyst for CNN, recently discussed these themes with David Priess.
In March, commodities led the way in monthly returns among major asset classes. This trend marks the third consecutive month of significant outperformance by raw materials, as observed through various proxy ETFs.
* Biden orders the release of oil to lower gas prices.
* The UK will join the US in releasing oil from its strategic reserve.
* Ukraine attacks a Russian military depot within Russia.
* Global dealmaking drops to the lowest level since the pandemic began.
* Factory activity in China experiences its sharpest decline in two years according to survey data.
* The 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since 2019.
* US jobless claims rise after hitting a 50-year low.
* Consumer spending growth in the US moderates in February.
* Personal income growth in the US increases in February as predicted.
* US stocks experience their first quarterly decline in two years during Q1:
Energy stocks have dramatically outperformed other US equity sectors this year, as shown by various ETFs through March 30. Only two additional sectors have registered year-to-date gains, but these barely compare to the exceptional performance of energy.
* The Russian military continues its assault on Ukraine despite promises to decrease efforts.
* Biden is considering releasing 1 million barrels daily from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
* The US natural gas export surge is straining supply and driving up prices.
* Will rising mortgage rates slow the skyrocketing home prices in the US?
* Economists are detecting signs of a housing bubble in the US.
* Rising wages might complicate efforts to curb US inflation.
* March saw a contraction in China’s manufacturing and services activity according to survey data.
* Germany and Austria are moving towards gas rationing.
* US private payrolls are growing steadily in March, as reported by ADP.
* Q4 GDP growth in the US has been slightly revised down to a robust +6.9%.
* The 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve has once again dipped, coming close to inverting at a mere +4 basis points:
A recent backtest (part II) explored the benefits of adding a specific allocation to volatility (VIX) through a specialized ETF to enhance risk management within a traditional 60/40 stock/bond strategy. The results were promising, and with ongoing volatility in financial markets this year, an update on this topic seems timely.
* Russia is set to “significantly reduce” operations in two main regions of Ukraine.
* The promise from Russia to diminish military operations has met skepticism.
* Is it premature to conclude that Putin’s strategy has faltered?
* Germany is taking steps towards gas rationing amid a payment dispute with Russia.
* Canada’s position improves as Russia faces trade issues.
* The new COVID-19 BA.2 subvariant has become the dominant strain in the US.
* A growing number of Americans express concerns about inflation, as reported in a recent survey.
* On Tuesday, the 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve inverted, indicating a risk of recession.
* Pimco argues that this yield-curve inversion may not be a reliable signal of an impending recession this time.
* US home prices accelerated again in January, up by 19.2% from last year.
* Job openings in the US remain close to record highs in February.
* The US Consumer Confidence Index has increased slightly in March:
While the likelihood of a US economic contraction remains low in the short term, the ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine and rising inflation could rapidly alter this outlook. However, current data suggests continued economic expansion for the foreseeable future.
* A new series of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia is underway.
* President Biden’s $5.8 trillion budget proposal aims to reduce federal deficits for the upcoming year.
* US job openings remain higher than available workers, according to private data for March.
* Global supply chain risks are rising again.
* A potential labor strike by West Coast dockworkers poses a threat to supply chains.
* China’s planned lockdown of Shanghai is raising concerns about energy demand.
* German consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since February 2021.
* The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index continues to show moderate growth for March.
* The US goods trade deficit narrowed in February, yet remains near record levels.
* The US 2-year Treasury yield has increased, reaching a new three-year high:
A diverse array of commodities experienced strong returns, topping performance among the major asset classes for the week ending March 25. This gain signifies a rebound for raw materials after two consecutive weeks of declines.
