The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

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    <p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Market-Power-Technology-Understanding-Second-ebook/dp/B09X274DHP?keywords=The+Market+Power+of+Technology%3A+Understanding+the+Second+Gilded+Age&amp;qid=1672932196&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1&amp;linkCode=li2&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;linkId=cc608c492d5178f0671f373d0b5ab6a8&amp;language=en_US&amp;ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&amp;ASIN=B09X274DHP&amp;Format=_SL160_&amp;ID=AsinImage&amp;MarketPlace=US&amp;ServiceVersion=20070822&amp;WS=1&amp;tag=thecapitalspe-20&amp;language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&amp;language=en_US&amp;l=li2&amp;o=1&amp;a=B09X274DHP" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/3X2DRSs">The Market Power of Technology: Understanding the Second Gilded Age</a><br/>Mordecai Kurz<br/><strong><a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-market-power-of-technology/9780231556521">Summary</a> via publisher (Columbia U. Press)</strong><br/>Kurz argues that the influence of technology in the marketplace is on the rise, contributing to greater income and wealth inequality. If this trend remains unchecked, it poses a threat to democratic foundations. The book suggests that effective public policy is essential to mitigate corporate power, pursue more equitable wealth distribution, and ensure that democracy can thrive alongside capitalism. Presented within are innovative strategies to alleviate these inequalities, which include restricting corporate mergers and acquisitions, reforming patent legislation, enhancing labor market dynamics, increasing taxes, promoting social mobility, and fortifying the middle class.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-7-january-2023/#more-19343" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-7-january-2023/" title="1:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-07T01:29:00-05:00">January 7, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>Recent estimates indicate an upswing in fourth-quarter economic activity for the US, a contrast to ongoing predictions of recession. However, the outlook for the forthcoming Q4 report appears promising, according to a collection of forecasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/upbeat-q4-gdp-nowcasts-for-us-conflict-with-recession-warnings/#more-19436" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/upbeat-q4-gdp-nowcasts-for-us-conflict-with-recession-warnings/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-06T07:37:26-05:00">January 6, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>* The House remains in a deadlock as McCarthy <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-united-states-house-of-representatives-kevin-mccarthy-us-republican-party-0938c7358f41c83759246f8949ac7c15?utm_source=homepage&amp;utm_medium=TopNews&amp;utm_campaign=position_01">fails</a> to secure a vote for the third consecutive day.<br/>* Ukraine <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-64178912">dismisses</a> Putin’s proposal for a Russian Orthodox Christmas ceasefire.<br/>* A PMI survey reveals that global economic activity continued to <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a2054171fdf64194bd2aebd52d16c665">contract</a> in December.<br/>* The US trade deficit sharply <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-trade-deficit-narrowed-sharply-in-november-as-global-demand-cooled-11672926977?mod=economy_lead_pos1">narrows</a> due to decreased global demand.<br/>* Eurozone inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/06/inflation-euro-zone-december-2022-drops-as-energy-costs-ease.html">eases</a> as energy prices decline.<br/>* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/economy/weekly-jobless-claims-december-31/index.html">fall</a> to a four-month low.<br/>* In December, US hiring by companies <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3335339/u-s-private-sector-job-growth-far-exceeds-estimates-in-december.aspx">rebounded</a> according to ADP estimates:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/adp.06jan2023.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-19434" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/adp.06jan2023.png" alt="" width="700" height="500"  /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-6-january-2023/#more-19433" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-6-january-2023/" title="6:31 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-06T06:31:00-05:00">January 6, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>It seems that the Federal Reserve is nearing the conclusion of its rate-hiking strategy, as indicated by bond market indicators and current economic conditions. However, a potential disruptor lurks: inflation could linger longer than anticipated.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-pivot-watch-5-january-2023/#more-19426" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-pivot-watch-5-january-2023/" title="7:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-05T07:38:05-05:00">January 5, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>* The House adjourns without electing a speaker, marking a <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/04/house-gop-enters-second-day-of-speaker-vote-with-no-plan-00076301">chaotic start</a> to the new Congress.<br/>* The absence of a speaker hampers standard governing operations <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/us/politics/house-speaker-representatives.html">in the House</a>.<br/>* An IMF official states that inflation has not “turned the corner yet,” <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-inflation-not-turned-corner-051516736.html">raising concerns</a>.<br/>* Amazon plans to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-lay-off-over-17-000-workers-more-than-first-planned-11672874304?mod=hp_lead_pos2">layoff</a> 18,000 employees, marking a significant reduction in the tech sector.<br/>* In December, China’s economy <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/984bbb8cfa404ed7a9b034e5dbe97472">contracted</a> mildly, according to PMI survey data.<br/>* WHO accuses China of “under-representing” the severity of its Covid-19 outbreak <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/china/china-covid-outbreak-who-data-intl-hnk/index.html">resulting in limited transparency</a>.<br/>* Job openings in the US <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/jolts-report-november-2022.html">remain plentiful</a> in November, indicating a tight labor market.<br/>* Fed officials expect elevated rates to persist for ‘some time’, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/fed-minutes-december-2022-.html">as reflected in official minutes</a>.<br/>* December’s US Manufacturing ISM Index indicates a continued contraction:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ism.05jan2023.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-19425" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ism.05jan2023.png" alt="" width="700" height="500"  /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-january-2023/#more-19424" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-january-2023/" title="6:52 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-05T06:52:33-05:00">January 5, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>The long-term anticipated return for the Global Market Index (GMI) dipped below 6% annualized in December, based on an average forecast from three models. This current projection aligns closely with GMI's trailing 10-year return, reflecting a market-value-weighted portfolio that encompasses all major asset classes, <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2022-performance-review/">excluding cash</a>.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-4-january-2023/#more-19421" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-4-january-2023/" title="7:45 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-04T07:45:57-05:00">January 4, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>* The House adjourns without electing a speaker, marking a <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3797324-chaos-reigns-in-house-as-gop-fails-to-pick-a-speaker/">chaotic opening</a>.<br/>* A new Covid-19 variant shows ‘alarming’ properties with respect to immune evasion, experts <a href="https://www.ibtimes.com/new-covid-19-variant-mutation-has-alarming-immunity-evasion-could-cause-us-surge-3653270">warn</a>.<br/>* US Treasury yields <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/03/us-treasury-yields-as-uncertainty-about-2023-outlook-lingers.html">decline</a> as safe-haven bond demand rises.<br/>* Natural gas prices <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-plunge-as-unseasonably-warm-weather-is-forecast-11672808996?mod=hp_lead_pos2">drop</a> anticipating warmer weather ahead.<br/>* The UK is projected to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/04/the-uk-recession-will-be-almost-as-deep-as-that-of-russia-economists-predict.html">suffer</a> the deepest recession among G-10 nations in 2023.<br/>* A global manufacturing downturn persists into December, as noted in <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/61782d8eac584849b191087c4a41ddee">PMI survey data</a>.<br/>* The recession in the Eurozone <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a7b8833a56df49d696286f25ebcd1977">moderates</a> and inflation cools as per PMI reports.<br/>* The US manufacturing recession <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fd49c3c51d79418b9622ad78993a762b">deepens</a> further according to December PMI data:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/us.pmi_.04jan2022.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-19419" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/us.pmi_.04jan2022.png" alt="" width="700" height="500"  /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-january-2023/#more-19418" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-january-2023/" title="7:05 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-04T07:05:21-05:00">January 4, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>The asset market faced significant challenges in 2022, with most major classes experiencing losses. The exceptions were commodities and cash. Other asset classes saw substantial declines over the year, based on a range of proxy ETFs.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2022-performance-review/#more-19413" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2022-performance-review/" title="7:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-03T07:20:12-05:00">January 3, 2023</time></a>
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    <p>* According to the IMF chief, a recession could impact one-third of countries in 2023 <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/business/imf-china-global-economy-recession-intl-hnk/index.html">predicts</a>.<br/>* Leadership in the House remains <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-us-republican-party-united-states-house-of-representatives-kevin-mccarthy-8b1d6cdf0d75dfc95b195c301f9ae344?utm_source=homepage&amp;utm_medium=TopNews&amp;utm_campaign=position_01">uncertain</a> as the new Congress prepares to convene.<br/>* Could the conflict in Ukraine <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/world/asia/india-ukraine-russia.html">accelerate</a> India's rise?<br/>* The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/darkest-days-likely-over-euro-zone-factories-dec-pmis-show-2023-01-02/">worst may be behind</a> for Europe's manufacturing sector.<br/>* The first regular shipment of liquefied natural gas from the US <a href="https://apnews.com/article/germany-government-olaf-scholz-business-f5c6f09937e0c0fdad1581e445303511">arrives</a> in Germany today.<br/>* Layoffs in the tech industry are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-layoffs-are-happening-faster-than-at-any-time-during-the-pandemic-11672705089">increasing</a> rapidly.<br/>* Elon Musk became the first individual to lose $200 billion in wealth <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/investing/elon-musk-wealth/index.html>.<br/>* Major US oil companies are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-chevron-focus-on-oil-projects-in-the-americas-11672698644?mod=hp_lead_pos2">shifting</a> focus to development within the Western Hemisphere.<br/>* China’s economic performance <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/china-dec-manufacturing-pmi-47-est-47-8">slowed</a> further in December according to PMI data:</p>
    <p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/pmi.03jan2022.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-19416" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/pmi.03jan2022.png" alt="" width="775" height="435"  /></a></p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-january-2023/#more-19409" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-january-2023/" title="6:31 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-03T06:31:47-05:00">January 3, 2023</time></a>
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<div class="entry-content">
    <p>The asset market faced significant challenges in 2022, with most major classes experiencing losses. The exceptions were commodities and cash. Other asset classes saw substantial declines over the year, based on a range of proxy ETFs.</p>
    <p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2022-performance-review/#more-19413" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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    By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2022-performance-review/" title="7:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-01-03T07:20:12-05:00">January 3, 2023</time></a>
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