The US stock market saw a slight decline last week, but it continues to lead among the major asset classes for the year, as indicated by a variety of proxy ETFs through the close on July 7.
* Joe Biden arrives in the UK ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Lithuania
* Yellen describes discussions with China as ‘productive’ after her meeting in Beijing
* The upcoming US inflation report will provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate considerations
* China is teetering on the brink of deflation
* US banks are expected to report the largest loan losses since the pandemic
* Treasury Secretary Yellen warns against dismissing the possibility of a US recession yet
* US private-sector job growth in June slowed to its lowest level in 2.5 years:
Richard Harris
Summary via publisher (Simon & Schuster)
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Update: refer to the Labor Department’s payroll data for a comparison against ADP’s estimate at the end of this article.
Recent reports indicate that US firms ramped up hiring in June, reinforcing the expectation that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation. This development could leave high-performing equity risk strategies vulnerable should aggressive monetary policies return.
* Yellen criticizes China for its actions against US companies
* Global economic activity has dipped to a four-month low in June, as per PMI survey data
* Growth in the US services sector strengthened in June
* US job openings declined in May, indicating a softening labor market
* Jobless claims in the US increased, yet remain at manageable levels
* According to ADP, US private payrolls surged in June:
New estimates indicate that economic activity in the US picked up during the second quarter, based on an aggregate assessment from several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. This strengthening forecast provides fresh support for expectations of continued moderate economic growth in the US into Q2. The official quarterly report is scheduled for release later this month.
* Treasury Secretary Yellen arrived in Beijing for discussions on US-China relations
* A federal judge restricted interactions between the White House and social media companies
* Minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting indicate officials anticipate further rate hikes
* New vehicle sales in the US increased 13% in the first half of the year, surpassing expectations
* Questions arise about how long Germany can depend on China for economic stability
* Meta launched Threads, a competitor to Twitter
* US factory orders increased for the third consecutive month in May, yet fell year-on-year
* The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a four-month high this Wednesday:
The long-term performance of the Global Market Index (GMI) increased to an annualized rate of 6.3% in June, surpassing the previous month’s forecast. This adjustment marks the second consecutive month of improved estimates, derived from the average of three models (as defined below), and remains near the lower end of typical realized performance over the past decade.
* Global manufacturing activity continues to contract mildly in June
* The US is preparing to impose limits on Chinese firms’ access to US cloud computing services
* China’s export controls on metals utilized in semiconductor manufacturing is just the initial move
* While rate hikes aren’t entirely curtailing inflation, their impact has yet to fully materialize
* Oil prices have flattened even with OPEC extending production cuts
* Economic growth in the Eurozone “stalled” in June, according to PMI survey data
* China’s economic growth decelerated to its slowest rate since January, as shown by PMI data
* The manufacturing downturn in the US intensified in June, as revealed by ISM Manufacturing Index:
