<div class="entry-content">This year has been challenging for analysts who depend heavily on one or two indicators to predict recessions in the U.S. While a traditionally reliable predictor may yet validate its significance in the forthcoming months, forecasts suggesting an imminent recession have so far proven to be either incorrect or overly hasty.
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* The United Auto Workers union <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/uaw-may-implement-targeted-strikes-if-no-deals-reached-with-automakers.html">is considering</a> targeted worker strikes<br/>* A congressional panel <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/congress-heads-to-wall-street-to-press-fight-against-investments-in-china-eb070fd">has urged</a> Wall Street executives to limit U.S. investments in China<br/>* The European Union <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-hits-china-probe-ev-074927679.html">is launching</a> an investigation into subsidies for electric vehicles in China<br/>* Writers <a href="https://deadline.com/2023/09/michael-chabon-david-henry-hwang-writers-sue-meta-ai-llama-copyright-1235544842/">are suing</a> Meta's AI Platform for copyright violations<br/>* The UK economy <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/uk-economy-contracts-in-july-as-mild-recession-looms.html">contracted</a> in July at the highest rate in seven months<br/>* In 2022, real household incomes for Americans <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/09/12/real-incomes-fell-last-year-no-wonder-americans-were-bummed-out">declined</a> for the third consecutive year:</p>
<div class="entry-content">Recent yield trends continue to indicate a potential peak, as indicated by a comprehensive review of major asset classes through a series of proxy ETFs. Throughout our periodic assessments this year, each update has revealed a decline from previous yields.
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* The risk of a U.S. government shutdown <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/kevin-mccarthy-faces-perfect-storm-demands-shutdown-looms-rcna104490">is being closely monitored</a> as the House reconvenes today<br/>* The U.S. <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/u-sets-record-billion-dollar-011938375.html">set a record</a> in 2023 for weather-related disasters costing over $1 billion<br/>* U.S. consumers <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/credit-crunch-worries-at-10-year-plus-high-new-york-fed-survey-says.html">are expressing concerns</a> about credit access according to a New York Fed survey<br/>* Central banks <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-12/central-banks-set-for-higher-for-longer-era-to-fight-inflation?srnd=economics-v2">are expected</a> to maintain elevated rates to control inflation<br/>* The changing policy at the Bank of Japan <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/how-the-bank-of-japans-shift-could-play-out-in-u-s-markets-b5d7acf5?mod=economy_lead_pos1">could influence</a> U.S. yield increases<br/>* U.S. household wealth <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/economy/household-wealth-economy-stocks/index.html">has reached</a> a record $154.3 trillion in Q2<br/>* Optimism among small businesses <a href="https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/">declined</a> slightly in August, remaining near a decade low:</p>
<div class="entry-content">This year has seen global markets rebound after the downturn of 2022, but recent volatility suggests that achieving previous highs may be challenging in the near future.
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* The Federal Reserve is anticipated to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/an-important-shift-in-fed-officials-rate-stance-is-under-way-70a91f8a?mod=economy_lead_story">halt</a> interest rate increases in September before re-evaluating the situation<br/>* U.S. consumer spending is projected to peak, as indicated by a survey <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mighty-american-consumer-hit-wall-000004700.html">forecast</a><br/>* Germany is expected to be the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/germany-predicted-to-be-the-only-major-european-economy-to-contract.html">only major European economy in recession</a> this year<br/>* Deflation in China <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7586a7a5-94e0-412c-abd2-66832ed486d9">eased</a> in August as consumer prices began rising<br/>* A significant lithium deposit, essential for electric batteries, was <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/ancient-supervolcano-in-us-may-hide-largest-lithium-deposit-ever-found">discovered</a> in the U.S.<br/>* The antitrust trial concerning Google’s search engine <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/10/tech/google-antitrust-lawsuit-government-trial/index.html">is set to begin</a> this week<br/>* Wall Street <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-fears-too-hot-170000073.html">has lowered</a> recession predictions as the U.S. economy remains stable:</p>
<div class="entry-content">
<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Foreign-Bodies-Pandemics-Vaccines-Nations/dp/1328974839?&linkCode=li2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=d22c584c2f05b48af488b0cf65900adf&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1328974839&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=1328974839" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Foreign-Bodies-Pandemics-Vaccines-Nations/dp/1328974839">Foreign Bodies: Pandemics, Vaccines, and the Health of Nations</a><br/>Simon Schama<br/><strong><a href="https://www.economist.com/culture/2023/09/06/simon-schamas-foreign-bodies-tracks-the-history-of-vaccines">Review</a> via The Economist</strong><br/>In 1796, Edward Jenner administered the first known vaccine for smallpox to an eight-year-old boy named James Phipps. Using fluid from the lesions of a dairymaid infected with cowpox, Jenner inoculated Phipps against both cowpox and smallpox.<br/>While humans had long understood that exposure to diseases could lead to immunity, the concept of intentionally infecting individuals to protect against future illnesses was both ancient and surprisingly slow to gain global acceptance.</p>
<div class="entry-content">Few assets perplex the average investor as much as gold. However, there’s a straightforward approach to cut through the complexity and think clearly about how this metal fits into a broader investment strategy: It is fundamentally money and should be regarded as such.
<div class="entry-content">
<p>* President Biden's options to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/business/auto-workers-strike-biden-threat/index.html">prevent a potential strike</a> by auto workers are limited<br/>* Biden is attending the G20 meeting in India today, focusing on <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-modi-g20-summit-57d279a3a80eb36a80a7e5165d70e61d">strengthening U.S.-India relations</a><br/>* The long-standing decline in one-year U.S. home prices <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-fall-in-home-prices-may-already-be-over-3496d6bb?mod=hp_lead_pos1">may be reversing</a><br/>* Optimism among small and mid-sized businesses <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/business-owner-optimism-reaches-all-time-21-year-high-7966573">has rebounded</a> to a 21-year high<br/>* The U.S. banking sector <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banking-industry-faces-significant-downside-risks-fdic-chair-151714051.html">continues to encounter significant risks</a>, according to the FDIC chair<br/>* China’s currency <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yuan-ends-domestic-session-weakest-093127650.html?_fsig=yybKbjGzY1C9tnCk_ORmAg--%7EA">has fallen</a> to a 16-year low against the U.S. dollar<br/>* U.S. solar installations are projected to reach a record level this year, with expectations <a href="https://electrek.co/2023/09/06/us-solar-installations-expected-to-be-a-record-32-gw-in-2023/">of 32 GW</a> installed<br/>* Jobless claims in the U.S. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-07/us-initial-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-since-february">fell</a> to a seven-month low last week:</p>
<div class="entry-content">While potential challenges for the U.S. economic landscape may be on the horizon, the upcoming third-quarter GDP report is expected to indicate a moderately stronger growth rate, according to the median estimate from various sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
