Today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to appear before the House, and market participants will be keenly focused on any insights regarding potential interest rate cuts.
* Cables in the Red Sea have been cut, impacting data traffic between Asia and Europe.
* Biden and Trump secure their respective party nominations following Tuesday’s voting.
* Global economic growth has reached an eight-month high as of February, according to a PMI survey.
* A robust US economy fuels expectations that the Fed may postpone interest rate cuts.
* US factory orders declined more than anticipated in January.
* The US ISM Services Index dropped in February, yet still indicates modest growth:
Market trends often spark bubble discussions whenever the stock market experiences a notable rally. While it is essential to have conversations about overbought and oversold conditions, as markets can reach extremes, excessively fretting about bubble concerns can lead to irrational behavior among investors. The challenge lies in striking the right balance.
* A surge in economic sentiment isn’t translating into increased support for Biden.
* China’s services sector is still expanding, but at a moderate pace in February.
* Chinese stocks rally to three-month highs as Beijing aims for 5% GDP growth.
* Bitcoin ETF inflows surge, driving prices close to record highs.
* Gold soars above $2,100/oz, reaching a historic peak on Monday:
The long-term return projection for the Global Market Index (GMI) saw an uptick in February, the first increase in three months, compared to the estimate made in January. The latest forecast indicates a 6.8% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which includes all the major asset classes (excluding cash) based on market weights through ETF proxies.
* Concerns rise for regional banks following the rating of NY Community Bancorp downgraded to junk.
* New regulations are transforming the operations of Big Tech globally.
* Japan’s stock market continues to thrive as the Nikkei 225 index exceeds 40,000 for the first time.
* Several OPEC+ nations extend their voluntary oil supply cuts.
* The strength of the US economy leads some commentators to argue that interest rate cuts are unlikely in 2024.
* The ISM manufacturing index for February indicates that the sector is still contracting:
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Review via AP
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Throughout February, stock markets globally led the performance of major asset classes, led by US equities. In contrast, bond markets faltered, both domestically and internationally, while commodities continued their rally for the year. US real estate investment trusts also saw a rebound following their significant drop in January, as noted earlier.
* Immigration serves as a pivotal factor in the US economic recovery post-pandemic, according to recent reports.
* China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month in February.
* India has been deemed ‘easily’ the fastest-growing economy globally, as noted by an IMF executive.
* US jobless claims increased last week but remain at historically low levels.
* US pending home sales in January experienced their largest drop since August.
* Inflation in the US has risen as real consumer spending declined in January:
The momentum factor is based on a well-observed phenomenon: price trends tend to continue… until they don’t. Recognizing when trends will reverse is challenging. However, the data up to February 28 suggests that investors’ appetite for risk has persisted into February, reinforcing the positive start to 2024 seen in January, through various ETF pairs serving as risk proxies. While trends can be ephemeral, it is not yet apparent that this one is set to expire soon.
