In recent economic news:
- * Polls suggest Trump will emerge as the GOP nominee following today’s New Hampshire primary.
- * Goldman Sachs’ head of trading still expects four interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024.
- * China is reportedly considering a rescue package for its stock market to curb declining prices.
- * Japan’s Nikkei index surged to a 34-year high on Monday.
- * India’s stock market capitalization is now the fourth largest in the world, surpassing Hong Kong.
- * The US Leading Economic Index continues to signal recession despite a growing economy.
Wall Street rejoiced on Friday as the S&P 500 Index, a key indicator for US shares, hit a record high for the first time in over two years. However, this celebration was somewhat isolated since the rest of the major asset classes continue to trade below their historical peaks, as evidenced by various ETFs up to January 19.
In other news:
- * Global supply-chain risks are escalating once more.
- * Russia became China’s largest oil supplier in 2023.
- * Mortgage rates are projected to dip below 6% by year-end, according to Fannie Mae.
- * US home sales plummeted in 2023 to the lowest level in nearly three decades.
- * The US will invest $325 million in EV chargers to enhance reliability and lower costs.
- * The US Consumer Sentiment Index increased significantly in January, reaching a 2.5-year high.
● Limitarianism: The Case Against Extreme Wealth
Ingrid Robeyns
Review via The Times
This provocative book argues that the wealthy should be taxed more. It suggests there’s a limit to how rich one should be, proposing that no one should have a personal fortune exceeding £1 million. Robeyns, a Dutch philosopher and economist, presents the “limitarian” case advocating for a cap on personal wealth, akin to how minimum wage laws are established. She contends that much of the amassed wealth is undeserved and contributes to democracy’s erosion, keeping the marginalized even poorer.
The anticipated official release of US GDP data for the fourth quarter is expected to show modest growth, according to the median forecasts from a selection of nowcasts gathered by CapitalSpectator.com.
Key developments include:
- * Congress approves temporary funding to prevent a government shutdown.
- * Factors contributing to China’s slowing economic growth are scrutinized.
- * Bitcoin ETFs rank as the second most popular after gold funds among investors.
- * Trump dismissed the idea of a U.S. central bank digital currency if he is elected.
- * Jobless claims dropped last week to the lowest point since September 2022.
- * The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index continued to decline in January.
- * US housing starts fell in December, reversing part of November’s gains.
After experiencing a modest decline in 2023, the healthcare sector’s stocks are rebounding strongly this year, leading the market. While it is uncertain whether this trend will persist, recent performance has shown promise as this segment outpaces others according to a selection of sector ETFs up to January 17.
Recent headlines include:
- * Pakistan conducted airstrikes against militants in Iran.
- * The commercial real estate sector faces a significant amount of maturing loans.
- * US homebuilder sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in January.
- * The Fed’s Beige Book reported mixed economic activity across the US in recent weeks.
- * Business inflation expectations dropped “significantly” to 2.2% in January, according to the Atlanta Fed.
- * US industrial production increased slightly in December.
- * US retail sales rose more than expected in December.
The significant decline in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business conditions index for January prompted numerous warnings. Following the release of this monthly survey data on January 16, social media buzzed with claims that it foreshadowed an impending recession, questioning whether output was already negative. However, a rush to judgment occurred, with many allowing the latest headlines to overshadow a more nuanced analysis.
Recent developments include:
- * A US spending bill passed the Senate, avoiding a government shutdown.
- * Fed’s Waller anticipates interest rate cuts this year.
- * China’s Q4 GDP growth increased to 5.2%, but fell short of expectations.
- * China’s population declined for the second consecutive year in 2023.
- * Fund managers are optimistic about small-cap stocks, according to a BofA manager survey.
- * The NY Fed Manufacturing Index plummeted in January to its lowest point since 2020.
