Recent economic updates paint a complex picture for various sectors in the US and global markets:
- * Financial distress in commercial real estate continues to rise
- * New solar generation capacity installations in the US rose to record highs in Q1
- * Nvidia surpassed Apple to become the second-largest public company in the US
- * US companies cut hiring in May to the slowest increase since January, as reported by ADP
- * The US ISM Services Index rebounded sharply in May, reaching a nine-month peak:
Following yesterday’s announcement that US job openings declined to a three-year low in April, this prompted the bond market to reevaluate expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
Current economic indicators show significant developments:
- * The US 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply for the fourth consecutive day
- * The Eurozone economy is expanding at its fastest rate in a year according to PMI survey data
- * China’s services sector grew at its fastest pace in ten months
- * US factory orders increased for the third month in a row in April
- * Job openings in the US declined in April to their lowest level in more than three years:
The outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) showed slight improvement again in May. For the fourth consecutive month, GMI’s long-term forecast increased, now standing at an annualized growth rate of 7.1%. This is a slight rise compared to last month’s projection, based on the average of three models (details provided below). GMI serves as an unmanaged benchmark that encompasses all major asset classes (excluding cash), weighted according to market standards via a selection of ETF proxies.
In recent updates:
- * The Q2 GDP nowcast for the US has been revised down to +1.8% via the Atlanta Fed’s model
- * Global manufacturing activity improved in May, reaching a 22-month high
- * Trends in US construction spending remain weak as of April
- * Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway controls 3% of the US Treasury bill market
- * Manufacturing activity in the US declined for the second consecutive month in May:
Global markets demonstrated a significant recovery in May, excluding commodities, as indicated by various ETF proxies. Gains were prevalent across major asset classes following April’s steep declines.
Recent developments include:
- * The European Central Bank is expected to announce a rate cut this week
- * OPEC has extended its oil-production cuts into next year
- * Eurozone factory output is nearing stabilization as of May according to PMI survey data
- * China’s manufacturing activity soared in May, as indicated by survey results
- * The Chicago PMI plummeted to a four-year low in May
- * US PCE inflation remained stable at a 2.7% year-over-year rate in April
- * Growth in US consumer spending and income slowed in April:
● The Hamilton Scheme: An Epic Tale of Money and Power in the American Founding
William Hogeland
Summary via publisher (Macmillan)
Once considered a forgotten founder, Alexander Hamilton has gained worldwide recognition. While many know his name, few understand his true aspirations for the nation. What challenges did he face in pursuing his lofty goals? Who opposed him, and how did conflicts unfold? It’s ironic that the resurgence of interest in Hamilton often overshadows his most intense struggles and victories, while also neglecting some troubling aspects of his legacy. Enthralled by the narrative of his role as a singular force in creating a modern nation, Hamilton—the first Treasury Secretary—cultivated growth through a clever establishment of banking, public debt, and manufacturing systems, ultimately concentrating national wealth among a government-connected elite. In his quest for American prosperity, he inadvertently fostered an oligarchic structure, which strained his relationships with contemporaries like Jefferson and Madison, and led to a lifelong battle against a chaotic egalitarian movement that is largely forgotten today: the 18th-century white working class.
US economic growth rose by 1.3% in the first quarter, reflecting a decline from the initial estimate of 1.6%. This adjustment represents a sluggish growth trend and signifies the second consecutive quarter of decline. However, the current nowcast for Q2 indicates that economic output may stabilize if not strengthen, based on the median forecasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Recent headlines and updates reveal crucial economic shifts:
- * OPEC is holding a meeting amid its dwindling influence over the oil market
- * Senate Democrats are calling for an investigation into Big Oil over alleged price-fixing
- * AI-related data centers are projected to consume up to 9% of the US electrical supply by 2030, as per a recent study
- * Pending home sales in the US dropped to their lowest level since the onset of the pandemic
- * Jobless claims in the US increased slightly last week, yet remain at low levels
- * The US Q1 GDP growth has been revised down to a sluggish 1.3%:
In summary, the economic landscape reveals both challenges and advancements across various sectors. Keeping a close watch on these indicators will provide insights into future trends.
