<p>The latest projections for the U.S. GDP in the third quarter suggest a growth rate that, while somewhat softer, remains robust. Wall Street is closely monitoring whether the upcoming August payroll report could shift this outlook.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-jobs-report-alter-the-upbeat-q3-gdp-nowcast/#more-22765" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-fridays-jobs-report-alter-the-upbeat-q3-gdp-nowcast/" title="7:27 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-09-05T07:27:42-04:00">September 5, 2024</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->Job openings in the U.S. dropped to their lowest level since January 2021, according to a report from the Labor Department . This decline raises concerns that the labor market’s recent slowdown will persist. Additionally, the findings bolster the expectation that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates at their upcoming policy meeting on September 18. “The labor market isn’t merely cooling back to its pre-pandemic state; it has dipped below it,” says Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “No one, particularly policymakers at the Federal Reserve, should prefer a further chilling of the labor market at this stage.”
A revised long-term performance forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) experienced another decline in August. This marks the second consecutive month of decreased expected returns for the GMI, an unmanaged benchmark that encompasses all the major asset classes (excluding cash) in alignment with market weights via various ETF proxies.
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. continued to contract in August, as indicated by survey data from the ISM Manufacturing Index. Although the benchmark slightly increased last month, it reflects a contraction for the fifth consecutive month, and the 21st time in the last 22 months. The report also revealed that manufacturers are still facing elevated input prices. “Input price pressures have risen modestly to their highest point in three months, but they are not significant enough to threaten the ongoing slow disinflation,” states Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital. “This doesn’t hinder a potential rate cut in September, but it also offers no support for a significant half-point cut.”
In August, U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) led global markets upward for the second consecutive month, as evidenced by a set of ETFs representing major asset classes. Meanwhile, commodities stood out as the only category to post a decline, mirroring the setback experienced in July.
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. increased in August, marking the first rise after four consecutive months of decline, based on the University of Michigan’s survey. “Consumers’ short- and long-term economic outlook has improved, with both metrics reaching their highest levels since April 2024. Notably, long-term expectations saw a substantial 10% rise across age and income demographics,” noted Joanne Hsu, Director of Surveys of Consumers.
This improvement follows a notable increase in U.S. personal consumption expenditures in July, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis . Consumer spending rose by 0.5%, up from June’s 0.3% increase.
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The Capital Spectator will be closing early for the Labor Day holiday. Our regular editorial schedule will resume with the morning shift on Tuesday, September 3. Cheers!
Going against the most successful equity risk factors this year has proven to be a challenging endeavor, particularly when it comes to momentum and large-cap growth, which continue to lead performance for 2024 as indicated by a comprehensive set of ETFs through yesterday’s close on August 27.
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/momentum-and-large-cap-growth-still-lead-equity-factor-returns/#more-22740" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/momentum-and-large-cap-growth-still-lead-equity-factor-returns/" title="7:49 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-28T07:49:50-04:00">August 28, 2024</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->* U.S. home prices increased by 5.4% in June compared to the previous year—surpassing inflation rates.
* AI leader Nvidia is set to announce earnings today following the market close.
* Nationwide tariffs for the U.S. may be on the horizon. Here’s what to expect.
* Here are three contrarian strategies worth considering: Emerging Market stocks, value investments, and small caps.
* U.S. consumer confidence rose to a six-month peak in August.
If a recession in the U.S. has indeed begun or is on the horizon, the recent forecasts for third-quarter GDP do not reflect any immediate threat. While this doesn’t assure continued economic expansion, it is a positive indicator.
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-via-q3-gdp-nowcasts/#more-22733" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-via-q3-gdp-nowcasts/" title="7:30 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2024-08-27T07:30:58-04:00">August 27, 2024</time></a>
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