Hurricane Milton poses a serious threat to west-central Florida, according to The Weather Channel. The National Hurricane Center has warned that “Milton could become one of the most destructive hurricanes in history” for the Tampa-St. Pete area.
The resurgence of stocks in emerging markets stands out as one of the notable achievements in recent financial history. However, it’s important to note that this rebound is largely driven by rising share prices in China. Excluding China, the broader emerging market stocks have demonstrated significantly weaker performance, based on a range of ETFs as of Friday’s close (October 4).
Florida is preparing for a direct impact from Hurricane Milton, which is anticipated to make landfall on Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and is expected to traverse central Florida.
In economic news, US payrolls increased by more than expected in September, according to data from the Department of Labor. An addition of 254,000 jobs surpassed expectations by a significant margin. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, marking a second consecutive month of reduced joblessness. The government’s report also included upward revisions for job creation in August and July.
● Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown
Andreas Malm and Wim Carton
Interview with co-author (Malm) via NYTimes.com
Q: It’s hard for me to think of a realm outside of climate where mainstream publications would be engaging with someone, like you, who advocates political violence. (Just to be explicit about this: Malm does not endorse or advocate any political violence that targets people. His aim is violence against property.) Why are people open to this conversation?
A: If you know something about the climate crisis, it means you are likely aware of the desperation that many feel. This desperation makes individuals open to the notion that our current efforts are insufficient. The reality of the situation underscores this dialogue: Every attempt to address the crisis has ended in failure. Hence, we may need to consider more radical measures. Historical movements have often resorted to sabotage without progressing further, and the risk lies in the worsening nature of the climate crisis itself, which continues to escalate over time, prompting increased desperation.
Economic forecasting is rarely foolproof. Assuming otherwise can lead to significant issues. A prime example is the recession warning issued nearly two years ago due to an inverted Treasury yield curve, which has likely turned out to be a false alarm.
New claims for unemployment benefits in the US increased last week; however, the overall numbers still remain low compared to historical averages. The four-week moving average, which smooths out fluctuations, continues to decline. “Currently, the labor market appears robust, and the economy seems to have avoided a deep recession,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
In 2024, opposing momentum and large-cap growth within the US equity markets has consistently proven challenging, based on a selection of factor ETFs. These risk premiums have dominated for much of the year, and current trading patterns suggest that this trend is unlikely to reverse anytime soon, based on trading through October 2.
Hiring at US firms showed signs of recovery in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. “Job creation exhibited a widespread resurgence following a five-month slowdown,” notes ADP Research. “Only the information sector experienced job losses, while manufacturing jobs increased for the first time since April.”
The long-term forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) showed a continued decline in September. This latest revision reflects the third consecutive month of falling estimates for the GMI, an unmanaged benchmark that includes all major asset classes (excluding cash) according to market weightings derived from a series of ETF proxies.
Israel plans to respond significantly to the massive missile attack from Iran on Tuesday, which could potentially escalate tensions across the Middle East. “Whether it leads to a full-scale or more limited conflict, the consequences could be catastrophic for Lebanon, Israel, and the wider region,” warns Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
### Conclusion
In summary, the recent economic indicators show a mix of positive developments, including job growth and resilience in the labor market, alongside significant challenges presented by natural disasters such as Hurricane Milton. Therefore, it is essential to stay informed and prepared as these dynamic situations unfold across various sectors and regions.
