President Trump has suggested a willingness to negotiate on tariffs, as global stock markets faced significant declines on Monday. During an evening address, he noted his openness to discussions with international leaders regarding new trade agreements. He declared, “I’m ready to negotiate with China, but they must address their trade surplus,” while speaking aboard Air Force One. Nevertheless, he clarified that tariffs will persist until the U.S. trade deficit is resolved: “Without a solution to that issue, there will be no deal.”
● The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters
Diane Coyle
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
Diane Coyle critiques the outdated frameworks that statisticians and governments have relied upon since the 1940s to measure economic performance. She argues that the tools used today do not accurately reflect the complexities of the current digital economy, calling for a new approach that aligns better with present-day realities.
The United States holds the position of the premier exporter of services globally, with the services sector serving as the backbone of its economy. While these attributes represent strengths, they also expose vulnerabilities as the nation engages in a trade conflict.
The U.S. bond market experienced a surge yesterday, fueled by escalating concerns over a possible global trade war. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), a benchmark for U.S. government bonds and high-grade credits, rose to its highest level since September amid a rush to safety in light of heavy losses in the stock market on Thursday. In contrast, U.S. stocks suffered their worst drop since 2020, particularly affecting the technology and energy sectors.
The recent announcement of sweeping tariff changes by President Trump marks a significant shift in the global economic landscape. The exact effects on trade patterns, economic adaptations, and international governmental reactions remain uncertain, but most predictions indicate a trend towards slower economic growth, rising inflation, and a contraction in global trade. In contrast, Trump asserts that these tariffs will quickly initiate a prosperous era for the United States.
President Trump unveiled a comprehensive set of tariffs on Wednesday, potentially sparking a global trade war as countries around the world prepare to respond. This policy shift represents the most significant alteration to global trade practices in a century. It includes a 10% universal tariff on all imports, along with increased tariffs on those deemed “worst offenders.” A notable exclusion is Russia. White House officials have stated that Russia is not included due to existing sanctions from the Ukraine conflict, which have already diminished trade to zero.
The expected long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) declined again in March, now standing at an annualized 6.9%, down from 7.1% the previous month. This assessment is derived from three models (as defined below) for GMI, a global benchmark reflecting a market-value weighted composition of the major asset classes (excluding cash).
The new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are set to take effect today. Analysts are optimistic that the specifics will clarify this shift in policy. However, the overall risks remain considerable. “The primary mechanism through which trade policy uncertainty impacts GDP is via business investment. Increased uncertainty makes future revenue streams less predictable, leading many to delay investment decisions until conditions are clearer,” reported analysts from Oxford Economics in a research note.
Commodities led the way with broad rallies across major asset classes during March; however, U.S. assets were the sole participants to post losses, with American equities notably impacted on the downside.
Gold surged to a new record high on Monday, reaching $3,124 per ounce. This precious metal has risen by 19.1% in value thus far in 2025.
