<div class="entry-content">
<p><strong>The US services sector experienced an unexpected <a href="https://www.rttnews.com/3544339/u-s-services-index-unexpectedly-indicates-slight-contraction-in-may.aspx">slight contraction in May</a>,</strong> as indicated by data from the ISM Services Index. The index fell to 49.4 last month, just shy of the neutral 50 threshold, marking its lowest reading since June 2024. In contrast, another survey regarding the services sector yields a more optimistic outlook: the <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c4deaa3f992441eb82ac356150ebf698">S&P Global US Services PMI</a> observed a moderate growth pace last month. "However, it's important to note that these improvements stem from a low baseline following a rather bleak April, where growth nearly stalled and confidence plummeted to a two-and-a-half-year low," stated Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.</p>
<p>
<a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/ism.services.05jun2025.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24081" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/ism.services.05jun2025.png" alt="" width="757" height="581" /></a>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-june-2025/#more-24080" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-5-june-2025/" title="6:40 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-05T06:40:52-04:00">June 5, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p>The US stock market has bounced back significantly, recovering most of its recent losses. This resurgence has positioned momentum strategies as the frontrunners in the competitive landscape for equity factor outcomes this year, as reflected by a selection of ETFs up until yesterday’s close (June 3).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/momentum-is-still-crushing-it-this-year-for-us-equity-factors/#more-24078" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/momentum-is-still-crushing-it-this-year-for-us-equity-factors/" title="7:06 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-04T07:06:14-04:00">June 4, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p><strong>US job openings <a href="https://apnews.com/article/employment-economy-tariffs-hiring-trump-699dba3134443ec0388cb3ed0f58b510">increased in April,</a> reflecting the resilience of the labor market.</strong> Despite ongoing uncertainties stemming from the trade war, the Labor Department announced that employers posted 7.4 million job vacancies in April, an uptick from 7.2 million in March. “Companies tend to retain staff until they are certain that an economic downturn is imminent,” noted Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “For now, the economy remains close to full employment.”</p>
<p>
<a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/jobs.04jun2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24076" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/jobs.04jun2025.png" alt="" width="984" height="652" /></a>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-june-2025/#more-24075" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-june-2025/" title="6:24 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-04T06:24:53-04:00">June 4, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p>The anticipated long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) nudged up again in May, rising to an annualized 7.2% from the previous month's estimate of 7.0%. This latest figure is slightly below GMI's actual performance over the past decade. The forecast is derived from averaging three models (as defined below) for GMI, an unmanaged global benchmark based on a market-value weighted combination of the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-may-2025-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> (excluding cash).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-03-june-2025/#more-24071" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-03-june-2025/" title="7:26 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-03T07:26:42-04:00">June 3, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p><strong>The US manufacturing sector <a href="https://www.haver.com/articles/u-s-ism-factory-index-falls-in-may">contracted</a> for the third consecutive month in May,</strong> as per the latest survey data. The ISM Manufacturing Index dipped to 48.5, marking a six-month low and falling notably below the neutral figure of 50, which indicates the divide between expansion and contraction. “The outlook for manufacturing appears bleak, particularly with the initial demand surge that came from front-loading now behind us,” explained Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. “Businesses are facing heightened input costs, supply chain disruptions, and hesitance from both domestic and international customers to place new orders.”</p>
<p>
<a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/ism.03jun2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24069" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/ism.03jun2025.png" alt="" width="757" height="581" /></a>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-june-2025/#more-24068" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-june-2025/" title="6:50 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-03T06:50:15-04:00">June 3, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p>In May, US stocks experienced a solid rebound, marking the first monthly gain since January. This substantial recovery placed American equities at the forefront among the major asset classes last month, according to a selection of ETFs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-may-2025-performance-review/#more-24065" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-may-2025-performance-review/" title="7:42 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-02T07:42:39-04:00">June 2, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p><strong>US consumer spending <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2025">increased for the third consecutive month in April,</a> aligning with forecasts and showing a 0.2% rise from the previous month.</strong> Real consumption expenditures year-over-year indicate a resilient trend with a 3.2% increase (refer to the chart below). Furthermore, the year-over-year change in real disposable income (DPI) continued its upward trajectory, reaching a pace of 2.9%. This recent increase in DPI suggests that consumer spending will maintain its upward trajectory in the near future, providing timely support for an economy grappling with tariff-related challenges.</p>
<p>
<a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/spend.02jun2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24063" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/spend.02jun2025.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a>
</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-june-2025/#more-24062" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-june-2025/" title="6:49 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-02T06:49:28-04:00">June 2, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/lisbon.24may2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-24060 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/lisbon.24may2025.png" alt="" width="246" height="183" /></a>The Capital Spectator is taking a brief hiatus to explore Edinburgh and Lisbon for the upcoming week. The usual content schedule will resume on Tuesday, June 3. In the meantime, please keep a light in the window for your wandering editor.</p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/holiday-interlude/" title="11:46 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-05-24T11:46:26-04:00">May 24, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/empire.23may2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-24058 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/empire.23may2025.png" alt="" width="146" height="218" /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/43ESZvz">Empire of AI: Dreams and Nightmares in Sam Altman’s OpenAI</a><br/>Karen Hao<br/><strong><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books/article-tech-journalist-karen-hao-takes-aim-at-sam-altmans-openai-empire/">Interview</a> with the author via the Globe and Mail</strong><br/>In her newly released book, *Empire of AI: The Dreams and Nightmares of Sam Altman’s OpenAI*, Hao chronicles the ascension of OpenAI. She documents the transformation of the company from a non-profit idealist to the globe's leading AI enterprise valued at $300 billion. Featuring in-depth observations of OpenAI’s work culture, derived from extensive interviews and internal communications, Hao reveals the departure of early investor Elon Musk, the reinstatement of the charismatic CEO Sam Altman, along with insights from Colombia and Kenya, where she speaks to low-wage contract workers responsible for evaluating graphic content used in training ChatGPT.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-24-may-2025/#more-24039" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-24-may-2025/" title="6:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-05-24T06:37:28-04:00">May 24, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta --><div class="entry-content">
<p>The expansive spending bill recently approved by the House is now set for debate in the Senate. A significant concern for the markets is whether the legislation will be revised, particularly in light of projections indicating that, if enacted, it could exacerbate an already substantial federal deficit in the coming years, potentially intensifying inflationary fears as government borrowing needs increase.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/inflation-anxiety-and-the-big-beautiful-bill/#more-24055" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
</div><!-- .entry-content -->
<footer class="entry-meta">
By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/inflation-anxiety-and-the-big-beautiful-bill/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-05-23T07:37:28-04:00">May 23, 2025</time></a>
</footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
