In recent years, the diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey have taken a dramatic turn, often resembling a genre of its own where officials from both nations exchange threats. This ongoing tension was evident last week when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accused Israel of jeopardizing Turkish security through its military actions in Syria and Lebanon, while also alluding to Israel’s destabilizing influence in Africa and the Mediterranean.
In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a pointed reply that generated considerable chatter:
Erdoğan countered with strong rhetoric, stating:
“Those who follow Hitler’s path should not forget that their fate will be similar to that of previous tyrants in history,” he declared. “Israel has transformed into a machine that produces suffering, sustained solely by blood and tears, creating nothing but upheaval and discord,” he added, vowing to hold accountable those responsible for such atrocities.
However, this fiery exchange glosses over critical issues that deserve attention: Turkey’s democracy is faltering while the U.S. is cozying up to Erdoğan, all while Israel seems to be putting itself in a precarious position. Let’s first examine the dynamics in Turkey.
On May 21, 2026, an Ankara court dismissed the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), Özgür Özel, thereby nullifying the 2023 leadership elections. This incident adds to a series of events where Turkey’s judiciary has been weaponized to stifle opposition. Just a year prior, Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP’s presidential candidate and the mayor of Istanbul, was imprisoned. Various CHP mayors have also faced similar fates, with some coerced—through threats or blackmail—into joining Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party. These actions effectively nullified the CHP’s prospects in the upcoming 2024 local elections, marking a significant step back for Erdoğan’s administration.
What has been the reaction from Western capitals? Mostly silence. Rather than seizing the moment to counter Erdoğan’s authoritarian crackdown on free speech and dissent, the West appears to be deepening its ties with Turkey.
It must be emphasized that both Washington and European governments show little genuine commitment to democracy, frequently expressing criticisms that appear to be self-serving and hypocritical. This is not the main focus here, however.
The more pertinent question is what this silence signifies, particularly as Israel publicly prepares to target Turkey in its geopolitical calculations.
The Trump administration has seldom been concerned with human rights or democracy advocacy, but it remains a staple of the European Union’s discourse. Yet, Brussels has remained conspicuously quiet regarding Erdoğan’s authoritarianism and his inflammatory comparisons of Israel to Nazi Germany, even while using Kaja Kallas’s mild critique of Israel as a reason to dismiss her back to Estonia.
In contrast, Trump is primarily interested in dollars and deals. Accordingly, recent events illustrate a burgeoning cooperation between Turkey and the U.S.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration ticked off another item on Erdoğan’s wishlist by dropping a criminal investigation against Turkish state bank Halkbank, which faced allegations of aiding Iran in circumventing sanctions through an oil-for-gold scheme.
This development serves as a reminder that while Israel and Turkey are competing for influence, resources, and strategic advantage across various theaters, there remains a shared interest in Washington—even amidst its Zionist leadership. Here are a few points highlighting this cooperation.
Last August, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) initiative was established. This 43-kilometer corridor in southern Armenia aims to link Azerbaijan with its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave, effectively favoring Ankara in the equation.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have already begun developing an electricity corridor to Europe that will utilize the TRIPP framework. It wouldn’t be surprising if subsequent pipelines were constructed following this electrical corridor, as both Turkey and Azerbaijan have long advocated for such initiatives. Recently, a joint venture involving a U.S.-Armenian firm—where Washington holds a 74% controlling stake—has been formed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, further signifying this initiative’s strategic importance.
TRIPP could potentially extend Turkey’s influence in Azerbaijan and among the Organisation of Turkic States in Central Asia. Additionally, it could help reduce Turkey’s dependency on Russian gas supplied by the TurkStream pipeline, if Azerbaijan can significantly increase its output—a possibility viewed as unlikely.
Nonetheless, gas currently sent to Turkey via Georgia also flows into the EU, which provides some context for Brussels’ silence towards Erdoğan’s actions and utterances that would previously invite rebuke. Moreover, Turkey’s ability to leverage the refugee crisis in Europe enhances its bargaining position, as does its expanding role in the EU’s military buildup.
Regarding energy, in September, Turkey finalized a $43 billion, 20-year LNG purchase agreement with a U.S. firm, following a $1 billion deal for 2024 LNG procurement with ExxonMobil. The U.S. is also assisting Turkey in developing its shale resources.
In January, an agreement was brokered between Israel and Turkey in Paris, with the U.S. playing a mediating role. As noted by The Cradle:
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan actively participated in the negotiations held in Paris. His demands were explicit: U.S. backing for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) must cease, and the proposed “David Corridor” must be obstructed. In return, Turkey would not hinder Israeli operations in southern Syria.
This marked a transactional alignment that proved effective.
Cooperation is also evident in Iraq, where U.S. military forces are moving from Baghdad and western Iraq to Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), where Turkey maintains numerous military bases. Both nations played significant roles in resolving disputes over oil revenues between Baghdad and the KRG, and oil exports to Turkey are set to resume as of September.
This oil can be utilized domestically to reduce reliance on Russian imports, and it is also shipped to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, from where it continues to supply the military operations Israel carries out, characterized by Erdoğan as drawing parallels to “Hitler’s path.”
What a curious situation.
Moreover, in May, the KRG signed substantial oil and gas agreements with two American companies aimed at increasing production flowing through Turkey.
When combined with the EU’s pledge (which they assert they truly mean this time!) to completely discontinue imports of Russian fossil fuels by the end of 2027, it appears that Washington is poised to follow through on its 2022 Atlantic Council veiled threat/promise: that “Turkey can become an energy hub—but not if it remains heavily reliant on Russian gas.”
This backdrop coincides with a return to normalcy in Turkish-Russian relations after a years-long chill, spurred by Russian involvement in Syria, the coup attempt in Turkey, U.S. support for Kurdish forces, and the EU’s self-defeating economic policies. Ankara must also now contend with a resurgent Russia (and Iran).
So is it surprising that Trump brushes off the escalating rhetoric from Erdoğan and Netanyahu?
Reporter: Do you think there is a chance for conflict between Israel and Turkey?
President Trump: I like Erdoğan a lot. He is a strong leader… I don’t think that will happen with Turkey, not as long as I am president, because Erdoğan respects me and I respect him. pic.twitter.com/qdwJAqbl73
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 10, 2026
This sentiment mirrors what Tom Barrack, the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey, stated in April:
JUST IN: US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack:
Israel aligns with Turkey, just as it aligns with Abu Dhabi and potentially with Saudi Arabia for the prosperity of the Israeli people. In my view, that’s the answer.
Therefore, I believe this rhetoric will soon dissipate.… pic.twitter.com/dHLcPAjWCT
— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) April 17, 2026
Barrack also emphasized Turkey’s critical role in securing Israeli energy needs.
“Everything flows from Turkey. We’re discussing fiber optics, oil, gas, information, and materials. How do these elements move?” he remarked.
Such observations appear central to how Washington is attempting to position these nations within the global landscape.
Washington aims to draw Turkey’s focus northward towards Russia and eastward towards Central Asia and the Caspian Sea, seeking to undermine Russian influence in the region. Turkey is cooperating while leaving Moscow in a precarious position. Currently, Ankara has not enforced sanctions against Russia, has facilitated an alternative gas route to Europe, and has refrained from allowing NATO vessels to navigate the Black Sea. However, it has engaged in efforts to counter Russian influence throughout the Caucasus and Central Asia. Recent comments from Andrew Korybko highlight President Dmitriy Trenin of the Russian International Affairs Council’s assessment concerning Turkey:
[Trenin] also mentioned that “Moscow closely observes Turkey’s initiatives to unify various Turkic nations,” though added that “it doesn’t particularly fret about it.” He further elaborated that “All Turkic-majority states from the former Soviet Union pursue multi-vector foreign policies, and Turkey represents but one axis. Russia no longer takes these states for granted and is adapting to compete with other influences there.”
Trenin interestingly observed that “Baku likely resists the notion of being seen as Turkey’s junior partner. While the geopolitical dynamics in the South Caucasus are intricate, these nations should not be viewed merely as pawns of larger powers.” It’s true that Azerbaijan isn’t a puppet of Turkey, but there’s a notable military alliance in place. Additionally, Trenin overlooks the reality that Armenia is aligning itself with both Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Ultimately, he concluded that “Currently, it is NATO countries, not Turkey, that present a clear threat in Moscow’s eyes” and suggested that Russia would welcome Turkey’s enhanced involvement in the SCO and BRICS as a means to effectively navigate the competitive landscape. However, it’s likely that Trenin, aware of Turkey’s expanding NATO influence through TRIPP, is deliberately downplaying these dynamics for diplomatic reasons.
Speaking of alliances, it’s noteworthy that Azerbaijan shares strong ties with the same government described as following a “Hitler’s path.” On June 5, CNN disclosed a long-known secret: Azerbaijan serves as a strategic base for Mossad and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
During the war with Iran, Israel deployed elite military and intelligence units to Azerbaijan as part of a covert network in the Middle East aimed at countering Iran, according to four sources familiar with the matter. These units operated from multiple sites in southern Azerbaijan, in close proximity to Iran’s northern border, making them instrumental in the operations conducted against Iran.
This development is unsurprising, as Israel has long supplied Baku with sophisticated armament, which, along with Turkey’s assistance, enabled Azerbaijan to achieve a decisive advantage over Armenia in the 2020 conflict. This dynamic paved the way for TRIPP—further evidence that all roads in this geopolitical drama lead back to Washington.
