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<p><strong>US layoffs spiked in October, reaching their highest level in over 20 years, as reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.</strong> “The rate of job cuts in October significantly exceeded the usual figure for this month,” <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/october-challenger-report-153074-job-cuts-on-cost-cutting-ai/">noted</a> the company's chief revenue officer. “While some sectors are adjusting after the hiring surge during the pandemic, this trend is occurring alongside increased AI adoption, waning consumer and corporate spending, and escalating costs, which have led to tighter budgets and hiring freezes.”</p>
While the timeline for the government’s release of the third-quarter GDP report remains unclear, current estimates still indicate that moderate economic growth is occurring.
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-probably-cooled-in-q3-but-still-growing/" title="7:11 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-11-06T07:11:54-05:00">November 6, 2025</time></a> </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p><strong>US hiring showed signs of recovery in October, with private sector employment rising by 42,000 jobs, as reported in the <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-42-000-jobs-in-october-annual-pay-was-up-4-5-302605577.html">ADP Employment Report.</a> </strong> “This marks the first job additions in the private sector since July, but recruitment levels remain modest compared to earlier in the year,” stated Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist. “Meanwhile, wage growth has remained relatively stable for over a year, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.”</p>
The conversation around a potential economic bubble is resurfacing, and for good reason. The stock market has experienced significant gains, and valuations have risen sharply. While these may appear to be classic indicators of a bubble, it is wise to approach such declarations with caution, especially when others suggest that a downturn is impending.
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-bubble-risk-elevated/" title="7:40 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-11-05T07:40:39-05:00">November 5, 2025</time></a> </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p><strong>Democrats achieved <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/05/democrats-2025-win-midterms-virginia-new-jersey-00637057">significant electoral victories</a>, including the New York City mayoral race and gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.</strong> By capitalizing on the advantages typically enjoyed by the party out of power, they also successfully redrew congressional district boundaries in California to enhance their electoral prospects in the House for 2026. The outcomes of last night’s elections <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8669125f-4a01-4185-aaa1-73ec7e7e93cf">surpassed expectation</a> in both New Jersey and Virginia.</p>
The Global Market Index (GMI) is projected to achieve an annualized total return exceeding 7% for the long-term forecast based on data available through October. This outlook has remained consistent over recent months, with no change compared to last month.
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-04-november-2025/" title="6:47 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-11-04T06:47:31-05:00">November 4, 2025</time></a> </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p><strong>Manufacturing activity <a href="https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/manufacturing-slows-in-october-as-trade-pressures-persist-ism-reports/">contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October,</a> according to the ISM Manufacturing Index.</strong> This decline coincides with rising costs in the sector. In contrast, a competing survey indicates a more favorable picture, showing “steady growth” in October as reported by the <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/366930acdfb446568e98f200e019f63e">US PMI Manufacturing Index.</a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-november-2025/" title="6:17 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-11-04T06:17:41-05:00">November 4, 2025</time></a> </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p>In October, US stocks outperformed other major asset classes, reclaiming the top position for the first time in five months, according to a set of ETFs.</p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2025-performance-review/" title="7:10 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-11-03T07:10:41-05:00">November 3, 2025</time></a> </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p><strong>Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran asserts that a rate cut in December is essential to mitigate the risk of a US recession.</strong> “If monetary policy remains overly restrictive for an extended period, there is a risk that it could itself trigger a recession,” he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/business/stephen-miran-fed-rate-cuts.html">told</a> The New York Times last Friday. “I don’t see a reason to take that risk if inflation isn't a pressing concern.” According to the <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">Fed funds futures market</a>, there is currently a 63% likelihood of another 0.25% rate reduction during the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 10.</p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-november-2025/" title="6:14 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-11-03T06:14:39-05:00">November 3, 2025</time></a> </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/sec.30oct2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-24866 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/sec.30oct2025.png" alt="" width="131" height="205"/></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/4p4Fmhl">The Second Estate: How the Tax Code Made an American Aristocracy</a><br/>Ray D. Madoff<br/><strong><a href="https://www.philanthropy.com/news/how-the-rich-use-philanthropy-to-dodge-taxes/">Review</a> via The Chronicle of Philanthropy</strong><br/>The disparity between charities and the affluent donors and foundations that support them has led to significant imbalances. A handful of individuals are well-versed in the nonprofit sector's workings, yet remain unafraid to voice the hard truths. Ray D. Madoff, author of the new book, *The Second Estate: How the Tax Code Made an American Aristocracy*, is one such individual. As a law professor at Boston College Law School, she has taken on a role as a critic of major philanthropy, notably in 2020 when she and billionaire John Arnold attempted to introduce legislation aimed at encouraging private foundations and donor-advised funds to disburse funds at a faster pace. However, this initiative did not succeed.</p>
