The political landscape in Colombia is poised for a dramatic showdown as far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda prepare for the upcoming presidential run-off election. Following a competitive first round, both candidates demonstrated strong support, setting the stage for a closely watched final round on June 21.
Far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella will face left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda in the run-off for Colombia’s presidential election next month.
After polls closed on Sunday, the two candidates quickly surged ahead in the vote tally, extinguishing the hopes of right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia, a former frontrunner.
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As of Sunday afternoon, with 99 percent of the votes tallied, de la Espriella took the lead, with 43 percent of the ballots cast in his favour.
Cepeda trailed him by more than 600,000 votes, earning 40 percent support.
Neither candidate breached the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a head-to-head match-up on June 21. However, the results are likely to buoy de la Espriella’s campaign leading into the final round.
Cepeda had consistently topped public opinion polls in the final weeks before the vote. A May 24 poll from the National Consulting Centre (CNC) showed him with more than 33 percent support, ahead of de la Espriella’s 30.9 percent.
De la Espriella’s ‘outsider’ campaign
Questions about security were at the forefront of voters’ concerns going into Sunday’s election.
De la Espriella, a businessman and lawyer who has never held elected office, leaned heavily into fears of crime as he launched an outsider campaign, similar to the dark-horse bid of Argentinian President Javier Milei.
By contrast, Cepeda is a well-known figure in Colombian politics. His father was a senator as well, before his assassination in 1994, which was widely viewed as an act of political violence.
Cepeda himself has been a senator since 2014. Prior to that, he served in the Chamber of Deputies, representing the capital city, Bogota.
Throughout his political career, he became involved in a protracted legal dispute with former right-wing President Alvaro Uribe, whom he accused of collusion with right-wing paramilitaries.
Uribe initially sued Cepeda for defamation, but in a dramatic twist, Colombia’s Supreme Court dismissed the charge and instead investigated Uribe for witness tampering.
While Uribe was initially found guilty and sentenced to 12 years of house arrest, an appeals court ultimately overturned the conviction, citing procedural errors and insufficient evidence.
Security a top concern
Central to the division in Colombian politics is the country’s six-decade-long internal conflict.
Since 1964, various entities—criminal networks, government forces, left-wing rebels, and right-wing paramilitaries—have vied for power and territory.
Cepeda has criticized right-wing attempts to resolve the conflict solely through military means.
In contrast, he has allied himself with Colombia’s outgoing president, Gustavo Petro, the first left-wing candidate ever to hold the nation’s highest office.
A former rebel fighter, Petro advocates for a policy dubbed “Total Peace,” which actively seeks negotiated settlements to ongoing violence.
While critics have raised concerns about the effectiveness of “Total Peace,” noting a recent rise in violence, Cepeda has nonetheless committed to advancing this approach. He represents Petro’s left-wing Historic Pact party in this year’s election.
In a recent CNN interview, Cepeda acknowledged the significant challenges tied to the policy, stating, “We cannot continue to develop conversations that do not yield clear results.”
However, he dismissed overly militaristic solutions and the idea of U.S. intervention. According to Cepeda, the U.S.-led “war on drugs” has “failed spectacularly.”
Conversely, de la Espriella has adopted a hardline security platform reminiscent of El Salvador’s leader, Nayib Bukele.
His platform includes a commitment to intensifying crackdowns on crime and establishing 10 megaprisons in Colombia.
Known as “The Tiger,” he founded the Defenders of the Homeland political party and frequently uses the rallying cry, “Stand firm for the nation.”
“The only peace process I believe in is one imposed by the force of arms and the laws of the republic,” de la Espriella stated in an interview this month.
Similar to former U.S. President Donald Trump, he has also hinted at launching airstrikes to disrupt drug trafficking, suggesting that suspects be neutralized by downing planes and shooting boats.
Such proposals have faced widespread condemnation as a form of extrajudicial killing, depriving individuals of their right to defend themselves in court.
Narrowing odds for Colombia’s left
More than 23.6 million Colombians participated in Sunday’s election, though a considerable number of ballots were blank or nullified.
Initial estimates, with 99 percent of ballots tallied, reveal that 245,342 voting sheets were null, while another 406,830 were cast as blank.
The second round is likely to pose a challenge for Cepeda, as the right-wing is expected to rally around de la Espriella.
During the vote count, more than 10.3 million ballots were recorded for de la Espriella, compared to about 9.7 million for Cepeda.
A right-wing victory would continue a regional trend across Latin America, where left-wing governments in Chile, Honduras, and Bolivia were replaced by right-leaning presidential candidates last year.
De la Espriella expressed optimism about the second round in a social media post as results came in.
“We are going to defeat tyranny and absolutism,” de la Espriella asserted. “We have advanced to the run-off thanks to the more than 10 million Colombians who answered the roar. In 21 days, we will make history!”
Key Takeaways
- Abelardo de la Espriella and Ivan Cepeda are set to face off in Colombia’s presidential run-off election on June 21.
- De la Espriella secured 43% of the votes, while Cepeda received 40%, with neither candidate crossing the 50% threshold.
- De la Espriella is known for his hardline security stance, while Cepeda advocates for peace negotiations.
- Over 23.6 million Colombians voted, but a significant number of ballots were nullified or left blank.
- The upcoming run-off may see right-wing consolidation behind de la Espriella.
FAQ
What are the main issues driving the election?
Security and peace negotiations are central themes, with voters concerned about the ongoing internal conflict.
How has public opinion shifted before the election?
In the weeks leading up to the election, Cepeda was consistently polling higher than de la Espriella, showing a competitive race.
What are the implications of the election results for Colombia?
A victory for de la Espriella could continue the trend of right-wing leadership in the region, affecting future policies.
