Recent trends in Treasury yield spreads suggest that the market may be factoring in a peak in inflation. While the accuracy of this forecast remains open to debate, it’s clear that the government bond market is reinforcing its stance on this expectation.
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Impeachment risks are increasing for Trump: Bloomberg
US and China begin another round of trade negotiations: WSJ
The White House plans to roll back clean water regulations: Axios
Trump administration advocates for fossil fuels at climate change summit: Time
UK’s May heads to Europe to salvage her faltering Brexit deal: Guardian
Macron proposes raising minimum wages following French protests: BBC
US imposes sanctions on North Korean officials amid stalled nuclear discussions: ABC
Former Fed Chair Yellen expresses concern over rising corporate debt: CNBC
US job openings increased in October, approaching record highs: CNBC
US and international stock markets experienced a significant drop last week while commodities and bonds saw gains, as indicated by various exchange-traded products tracking major asset classes. Concerns regarding multiple economic and political risks are weighing heavily on stock markets, and the upcoming week is likely to bring further volatility.
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China summons US ambassador over Huawei CFO’s arrest in Canada: Bloomberg
Europe’s top court rules that the UK can unilaterally halt the Brexit process: CNN
Wall Street banks analyze data for insights into the business cycle: Bloomberg
UK’s Prime Minister May must decide if Brexit deal goes to a vote today: Time
Familiar challenges await the US economy in 2019: NY Times
Eurozone GDP growth slowed to its weakest pace in four years in Q3: RTE
US hiring slowed in November; wage growth reached its highest rate in nearly a decade: WSJ
Consumer debt saw its largest increase in 11 months in October: Bloomberg
US wholesale trade sales increased by 6.8% for the year through October: MDM
US Consumer Sentiment Index remained unchanged at a high level in December: MW
Delivering Alpha: Lessons from 30 Years of Outperforming Investment Benchmarks
By Hilda Ochoa-Brillembourg
Summary via Amazon
A former World Bank Executive and notable investor shares a comprehensive guide to adding consistent, sustainable value to globally diversified portfolios. Many investors see alpha as a coveted asset. Achieving risk-adjusted returns that exceed benchmarks—alpha—remains challenging even with a solid strategy. Hilda Ochoa-Brillembourg, an expert in this area, reveals the principles and methods that her team has employed over the past four decades to consistently surpass benchmarks and add significant value to their investments. In Delivering Alpha, she discusses the critical factors driving effective investment choices, including timing, market awareness, and price relative to the investor. Additionally, she dispels common investment myths that can hinder both new and seasoned investors.
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The pace of hiring at US companies dipped in November, according to the latest update from the Labor Department. The smaller-than-expected increase has lowered the year-over-year trend to a three-month low. Although the economy continues to generate a substantial number of jobs, today’s data reinforces the perspective that US growth has reached its peak.
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The recent volatility in the stock market has resulted in a shift in leadership among US equity factor strategies, with low-volatility emerging as this year’s leading approach, according to various ETFs. Although growth and momentum strategies are still gaining traction, they are now slightly lagging behind the low-volatility method. Meanwhile, value stocks have remained stagnant for the year, reflecting trading patterns for 2018 up to December 6.
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Trump plans to appoint State Department spokeswoman as UN Ambassador: The Hill
Congress approves short-term spending bill to prevent government shutdown: Reuters
Fed Chair Powell describes the US labor market as ‘very strong’: Bloomberg
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index in November close to highest level in 13 years: MW
Conversely, US Services PMI for November indicates relatively slow growth: IHS Markit
Factory orders plunged in October—marking the largest monthly decline in over a year: Reuters
US productivity experienced a 2.3% growth in Q3, slower compared to Q2: Fox
US jobless claims fell last week but remain near a five-month high: MW
Trade deficit in the US rose to a ten-year high in October: CNBC
Private employment growth in the US slowed to +179k in November: ADP
US job cuts decreased in November compared to October, but the annual change has risen over 50%: CG&C
PMI indicates a modest rise in global economic growth in November, reaching a three-month high: IHS Markit
Hiring growth among US companies slowed in November, according to the latest data from the ADP Employment Report. Payrolls rose by 179,000 last month, down from 225,000 in October. As anticipated, the annual growth rate also slightly declined; however, the year-over-year trend remains strong at 2.0%, marking the fastest increase in over two years.
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Early trading futures indicate another tumultuous day for the US stock market, partly due to rising tensions regarding trade relations with China. However, the outlook for US economic performance in the fourth quarter suggests steady moderate growth in GDP for the last three months of 2018, as inferred from nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
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