The recent involvement of Yemen’s Houthis in the ongoing conflict with Iran marks a pivotal moment in regional dynamics. As this Tehran-supported group navigates its role, the implications for shipping routes and geopolitical tensions could be significant.
The true significance of the long-awaited entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the Iran war depends on whether the Tehran-backed proxy group is intending to send a few missiles and drones from a distance towards Israel or will instead capitalise on its proximity to the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait to effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping, just as Iran has in effect shut the strait of Hormuz.
The combined effect of both waterways being shut to commercial traffic from countries that neither the Iranians nor Houthis favour would be devastating. Napoleon Bonaparte’s remark that “the policy of a state lies in its geography” has never seemed more apt.
The Houthis, a Shia sect that has controlled significant areas of Yemen, including the capital, since 2014, display resilience and complexity. After Israel’s targeted strike in August 2025, which resulted in the deaths of the Houthi prime minister and several key officials, the group has continued to adapt. However, Israel has been unable to locate Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, the movement’s leader.
While it has not yet actively engaged in conflict on behalf of Iran, UN reports indicate that many of its arms have been sourced from Tehran.
Since May 2025, a ceasefire mediated by Oman has been in effect, halting attacks on US shipping through Bab al-Mandab that had escalated since October 2023.
This ceasefire followed considerable damage inflicted on Houthi missile capabilities by the US, occasionally with support from the UK. Despite this, the Houthis have clarified that the ceasefire does not extend to Israel, and some attacks persisted.
An Iranian goal of bolstering its political standing before US-Iran nuclear discussions in spring 2025 influenced the ceasefire. The Houthis broadened this ceasefire to include Israel in October 2025 when Israel reached a separate agreement with Hamas in Gaza. Despite the subsequent Israeli-US assault on Iran during the brief war last year, the Houthis largely held back their retaliation.
As a result, major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have been cautious in resuming operations through the Red Sea, wary of the more costly and time-consuming alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope.
The Bab al-Mandab strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, remains vulnerable to Houthi attacks via drones, missiles, and small boats.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a Middle East expert from the London think tank Chatham House, cautioned that any prolonged disruption could escalate shipping costs, elevate oil prices, and place further strain on an already fragile global economy grappling with challenges in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s overarching strategy of mobilizing allied groups in the region appears to be progressing, with Al-Muslimi predicting a growing perception within Yemen that the Houthis are overly aligned with Iranian interests.
The Houthis may proceed with caution as they seek financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. In southern Yemen, the Saudis have recently subdued the southern separatist movement backed by the Southern Transitional Council. Additionally, the Emirati forces that previously supported the STC have withdrawn under Riyadh’s influence, leading Saudi Arabia to take unilateral control over Yemen’s future. This situation necessitates negotiations not only with former STC supporters but also with the Houthis.
The STC has officially disbanded but remains intact, waiting for the Riyadh-backed southern regime to falter while asserting that the cause for southern autonomy endures. Given the challenges on multiple fronts, Riyadh is likely to pursue discreet negotiations with the Houthis to mitigate threats to Red Sea shipping.
With Saudi Arabia investing heavily in the new southern government, the Houthis may seek a share of this financial support in exchange for refraining from conflict in the south or disrupting Red Sea trade.
Ultimately, the Houthis’ strength lies in their capacity to disrupt shipping rather than merely targeting Israel with missiles.
This situation could exacerbate the already fragile peace in Yemen, which has endured over a decade of civil strife.
The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has expressed concern, stating, “This escalation threatens to drag Yemen into the regional war, which will make resolving the conflict in Yemen more difficult, deepen its economic repercussions, and prolong the suffering of civilians.” This is not his first warning against escalation, and it is unlikely to be his last.
Key Takeaways
- The Houthis’ entry into the Iran conflict could disrupt key shipping routes.
- Resilience in the Houthi movement has allowed it to survive major setbacks.
- The ceasefire with the US highlights the Houthis’ strategic calculations.
- Shipping companies are cautious about operating in the Red Sea due to ongoing tensions.
- Saudi Arabia’s investments in Yemen complicate the landscape for both the Houthis and the STC.
- The long-standing civil war in Yemen faces new challenges amid regional conflicts.
FAQ
What is the significance of the Bab al-Mandab strait?
The Bab al-Mandab strait serves as a crucial shipping route between Europe and Asia, making its security vital for international trade.
How have the Houthis maintained their power?
The Houthis have displayed resilience by adapting to setbacks and leveraging regional dynamics to their advantage.
What diplomatic efforts are underway in Yemen?
Ongoing ceasefires and negotiations aim to stabilize the region, but tensions continue due to the complex interplay among local and foreign interests.
