Recent news highlights the United States’ readiness to impose new tariffs on the remaining imports from China if trade negotiations do not succeed. President Trump anticipates securing an excellent trade deal with China, stating that more tariffs may be implemented if discussions falter. Meanwhile, the US government is deploying 5,200 troops to the southern border to manage the migrant caravan. Should the Democrats gain control of the House, further investigations are expected to unfold.
In international news, Angela Merkel plans to step down as Germany’s chancellor in 2021, prompting questions about the future of German leadership. Additionally, consumer spending in the US was solid in September, though income growth has not kept pace, lagging behind. September saw stable costs for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation.
Scientific reports indicate that the Earth’s tropical zone is shifting, expanding by 30 miles each decade. In financial markets, the S&P 500 index recorded its lowest closing value in nearly six months.
US preparing new tariffs on remaining Chinese imports if talks fail: Bloomberg
Trump expects a ‘great deal’ with China on trade: Reuters
US to send 5,200 US troops to border to stop migrant caravan: Fox
If Dems take the House, expect a lot of new investigations: NY Times
Germany’s Angela Merkel will step down as chancellor in 2021: BBC
What will follow the Merkel era in Germany? Slate
Consumer spending in US was solid in Sep; income growth was sluggish: Reuters
US PCE inflation remained tame in September: WSJ
The earth’s topical zone is expanding 30 miles per decade: Yale Environment 360
S&P 500 fell to lowest close in nearly six months on Monday: USA Today
Last week’s trading activity saw a noticeable shift towards safe-haven assets, with US Treasuries emerging as the clear winners amidst a global equity market downturn. Analysis of major asset classes via exchange-traded products supports this observation.
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Pittsburgh synagogue shooting suspect due in court today: CNN
US Homeland Security Secretary: ‘This caravan is not getting in’: Politco
2nd migrant group headed for US tries to force entry into Mexico: Fox
Brazil elects right-wing former military officer as president: BBC
Another setback for Germany’s governing party after state election: BBC
Germany’s Merkel to quit as head of her Christian Democratic party: Bloomberg
IBM to acquire Red Hat as Big Blue focuses on cloud computing: CNBC
US economic output slowed in Q3, but still posted solid 3.5% gain: MW
Gender gap has opened up for views on the American economy: NY Times
Is bear market for stocks lurking if Democrats take House? Bloomberg
US consumer sentiment eases in Oct but remains at historically high levels: CNBC
By Michel Aglietta
Summary via publisher (Verso)
As the financial crisis reached its peak in September 2008, the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke emerged as a pivotal figure. The financial system was on the brink of collapse, and when a senator questioned Bernanke about the consequences of not implementing a rescue package, he warned, “If we don’t do this, we may not have an economy on Monday.” What ultimately salvaged the financial and economic landscape was an infusion of fiscal and monetary stimulus—money generated ad hoc. This strategy sparked discussions about the underlying nature of money, revealing it to be more than just a neutral indicator of value. Through its control of finance and the debt system, money wields significant sovereign power in the economy. Failure to maintain confidence in money invites crises. In this insightful look over 5,000 years, Michel Aglietta examines the evolution of money and its integral link to sovereign authority.
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In today’s advance estimate of third-quarter data, US GDP growth exceeded expectations, marking an annual increase of 3.5% (seasonally adjusted real rate), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This result is slightly above the Capital Spectator’s 3.3% projection based on various sources from earlier in the week. Although the Q3 advance reflects a robust rise, it also reinforces the trend of deceleration following a remarkable 4.2% surge in Q2.
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Last week, Bloomberg featured an intriguing article about a newly launched exchange-traded fund (ETF) that employs artificial intelligence (AI) to outperform both market indices and active management. This suggests that a new era of AI-driven investing has begun, posing challenges to traditional indexing methods. However, a closer inspection of the Robot ETF’s performance—aided by factor analysis—reveals a more nuanced reality. It appears that its success can be attributed to a mixture of large-cap, small-cap, and micro-cap equity betas, suggesting that replicating its performance could simply involve investing in a combination of basic index funds.
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Mail bomb threat widens, including packages sent to former VP Joe Biden: BBC
Florida mail facility in focus for bombmaker investigation: CNN
Trump may close southern border as migrant caravan nears: USA Today
China and Japan pledge to forge closer ties: Reuters
ECB chief says recession risk is low for Eurozone economy: NY Times
Global stocks on track for worst week in five years: Reuters
US pending home sales in September posted first gain since June: NAR
Wholesale inventories in August up more than initially estimated: Reuters
US jobless claims rose slightly last week but remain near 45-year low: MW
Trade deficit in US widened for fourth straight month in September: CNBC
US durable goods orders rebounded in September: CNBC
The recent downturn in equity markets has triggered sensational media headlines, stirring investor anxiety globally. October’s performance appears dismal, and the ongoing market decline could either continue or reverse. Before making emotionally-driven decisions, it’s essential to reflect on the broader historical context, which is often overlooked during such turbulent times.
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Suspected package bombs sent to Obama, Clinton and CNN: Reuters
Is Trump’s diplomacy pushing China and Japan closer together? CNN
Worries over a trade war and tariffs are key factors in market selloff: CNBC
Is the Fed making a mistake on inflation outlook and raising rates? Yardeni.com
US Composite PMI for Oct: economic growth ticked up to 3-mo high: IHS Markit
Home Price Index for US up 0.3% in Aug as mid-Atlantic slumped 0.7%: HW
Fed’s Beige Book: wages, prices rising at a “modest to moderate” pace: MW
New home sales in US fell to lowest level in nearly 2 years in Sep: Reuters
Equity markets in the Middle East continue to lead in performance this year, while major global stock market regions experience declines. This observation is based on a compilation of exchange-traded funds from the previous close on October 23.
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