In light of ongoing developments in the Iran war, we are providing a preliminary update. For the complete version, please check back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page.
This initial update may appear somewhat sparse due to unforeseen circumstances, but it aims to include valuable insights for your understanding of the current situation.
The limited reporting on the war continues to undermine the latest wave of optimism surrounding a possible Trump “deal on the horizon.”
While we expressed skepticism yesterday regarding a report from the usually reliable DropSite, which suggested that Iranian sources claimed Iran might allow Russia or China to hold its enriched uranium, this contradicts Iran’s previous stance. This issue is crucial for the nation’s sovereignty, as Robert Pape has pointed out—the stakes are non-negotiable. He emphasizes that any concessions by Iran could pave the way for further US and Israeli encroachments. Other analysts also argue that the US needs to be not only defeated but visibly defeated to prevent future aggression against Iran.
A Bloomberg headline reflects this unsettling dichotomy:
Iran has stated that the latest US proposal has somewhat narrowed the divide between both parties. However, recent comments from Iran’s supreme leader regarding the retention of uranium stockpiles and ongoing disputes over tolls in the Strait of Hormuz complicate the prospects for a meaningful breakthrough.
Tehran is currently analyzing a text from the US, which “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” according to the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency. However, any further progress will require the US to temper its warlike tendencies.
Despite these indications of progress, a Reuters report highlighted that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had directed that Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not leave the country. This initially led to an increase in oil prices. In response, President Donald Trump opposed the establishment of a permanent toll system through Hormuz.
“We want it open, we want it free, we don’t want tolls,” Trump remarked to reporters at the White House. “It’s an international waterway. They are not charging tolls right now.”
It raises the question: How does Trump know if tolls are currently being levied? Documented routes show that two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz bound for China carrying Iraqi oil, and there is no straightforward way to verify whether tolls were paid by Chinese buyers using yuan or bitcoin. It is plausible that minimal or no fees were exchanged, especially given the amicable relations between China and Iraq. However, many shipping companies may not be inclined to disclose their transactions to the US.
A recent exclusive by the Wall Street Journal shed light on Iran’s financial maneuvers:
As tensions with the US escalated, a principal financier of the Iranian regime established a clandestine payment network to sustain military funding. Central to this operation was Binance.
Up until as recently as December, this network, overseen by Babak Zanjani—a self-described “anti-sanctions” operator—conducted $850 million in transactions over two years through a single account on the world’s leading cryptocurrency exchange, as detailed in internal Binance compliance reports.
Associates of Zanjani, including family members, operated additional accounts, all accessed from the same devices, raising red flags for Binance investigators who viewed this as evidence of evading US sanctions on Iran.
Despite being flagged numerous times internally, the main account remained active for at least 15 months, continuing to operate as of January, according to Binance documents. Zanjani’s activities on the platform had not been previously reported.
These transactions highlight a broader trend of billions in cryptocurrency flowing through Binance to fund Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the lead-up to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
Notably, Trump’s support for crypto comes despite having previously pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, who faced legal repercussions for money-laundering violations.
Returning to the negotiations, Al Jazeera’s live feed paints a complicated picture:
Significant hurdles persist amid Pakistan’s mediation of US-Iran dialogues
Reports oscillate between claims of meaningful progress and significant disagreements between the US and Iran, making the situation particularly challenging to comprehend.
Iran is still evaluating the US proposals and will relay its responses through Pakistani mediators. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi has been in Tehran for three days, trying to bridge the gap between the disputing parties.
There are expectations that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, will visit Tehran only after witnessing substantial progress, marking his second visit to the country.
Hindustan Times summarizes the information:
According to various Iranian sources, the nation will not allow its enriched uranium to leave its borders. While some representatives previously supported the idea of temporarily relocating it outside Iran, opposition to this concept has solidified following continued threats from Trump.
Despite ongoing rhetoric from Trump about potential military responses against Iran, many analysts express skepticism about a renewed hot war, even if only briefly, citing limited operational capacities. Professor Robert Pape argues that countries embroiled in disputes over sovereignty often risk escalation rather than concede defeat.
On Thursday morning’s Breaking Points show, hosts Ryan Grim and Saagar Enjeti speculated that the US and Israel could be preparing to launch new strikes, noting that historically, Trump and Netanyahu have feigned discord before initiating major offensives against Iran.
The discussion revisited Iran’s firm rejection of the notion that its enriched uranium could be relocated abroad, as reflected in a transcript excerpt:
Saagar: Breaking news from Reuters states that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a firm directive against the export of the nation’s near-weapons-grade uranium, marking a consolidation of Iran’s stance on a primary US demand. This represents the most significant hurdle in negotiations, potentially even more than the contentious issue of the Strait of Hormuz where Iran has exhibited some measure of flexibility.
Ryan: Previously, there were reports in Axios about similar narratives right before significant hostilities broke out, suggesting a pattern that may imply a looming conflict.
Additionally, many believe that actors like Trump may now find themselves trapped in a complicated web of escalating tensions and limited negotiating power regarding nuclear issues. This predicament stems from a history of hard-line stances that leave little room for compromise, as Iran grows stronger in its military capabilities.
It should also be noted that Netanyahu may strategically avoid portraying any apparent discord with Trump, aiming to maintain Israel’s popular support amid the ongoing conflict.
The current situation is further complicated by reports highlighting dwindling US military capacity:
US used over half its THAAD interceptors defending Israel from Iranian attacks; also fired 100+ SM-3/SM-6 missiles. Israel used fewer than 100 Arrow and ~90 David’s Sling interceptors. US official says future Iran fighting could require even more US interceptors due to Israeli…
— ILRedAlert (@ILRedAlert) May 21, 2026
Expectedly, Israel is leveraging the current deadlock to advocate for renewed military action, arguing that an Iranian strike on its territories is imminent:
Israeli intelligence officials claim Iran is planning a major surprise missile and drone attack against Israel and Gulf states following the collapse of negotiations, while Israeli officials argue that Israel “must” strike Iran immediately to pre-empt the attack as US-Iran…
— Beirut Wire (@beirutwire) May 22, 2026
Thus far, no English-language Iranian media has explicitly reported threats towards Europe, although some independent claims on Twitter have surfaced:
🇮🇷💥🇺🇸🇬🇷🇷🇴🇩🇪The IRGC announced in case of a renewed conflict with the U.S. and Israel, Iran will consider targeting American bases in Greece, Romania and Germany.
— Hawkeye1812Z (@Hawkeye1745) May 22, 2026
Iran had stated on the 19th that it was ready to escalate the conflict beyond current theaters if the US initiated further attacks. From Euractiv:
Iran’s military threatened that it would “open new fronts” against the US should attacks resume. This statement came in light of Trump mentioning that he had delayed launching a new offensive in pursuit of a potential deal.
“If the enemy is foolish enough to fall into the Zionist trap again and launches new aggression against our beloved Iran, we will open new fronts against it, employing new equipment and methods,” stated army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia to the ISNA news agency.
Japan Times reports on Iran’s capability to assert control over undersea cables without necessarily destroying them. They can deny access for maintenance, impacting critical connections between various global regions:
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened to impose “permits” on submarine fiber-optic cables navigating through the Strait of Hormuz.
Key connections include a segment of AAE-1, which links points from Hong Kong to Italy and France, while cables such as FALCON and Gulf Bridge connect the Persian Gulf nations—including Iran—with India and eastern Africa.
This disruption could affect various types of data traffic, ranging from videos and emails to financial transactions and governmental communications.
Although there may not be a complete impact on data flows, experts caution that the capacity of terrestrial networks could struggle to accommodate rerouted traffic should the undersea connections be severed.
Recent reports indicate that Iran’s operations around the Persian Gulf are becoming more structured and effective:
Iran’s IRGC claims 35 ships passed through Hormuz with permission in the last 24 hours
The IRGC Navy announced that 35 vessels, including oil tankers and container ships, transited the Strait of Hormuz recently. This movement was conducted with the IRGC’s oversight and coordination.
However, it is essential to consider the following:
1. Many of these ships may have been trapped in the Gulf and eager to leave. Owners and crews might be willing to take on more risk to escape than under normal circumstances. Any U.S. harassment on the way to the Arabian Sea could deter many operators.
2. While this uptick is a positive development, it falls significantly short of the pre-war average of over 130 crossings daily.
On the economic front, a recent discussion from Eurodollar University revisits Jeff Snider’s analysis of rising budget pressures on consumers, evidenced by Kroger’s attempt to lower prices amidst various rising costs.
Concerns arise as demand for fuel, despite rising prices, has not noticeably declined, attributed partly to subsidies and inventory releases rather than genuine consumer resilience:
Yesterday the EIA confirmed what I have been reporting for months: at roughly $100 a barrel, there is zero demand destruction for crude oil ⚠️
Enjoy the government-subsidized party while it lasts; what follows could be severe.
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) May 21, 2026
Interestingly, hedge funds are now heavily betting against the stock market, which could potentially result in a massive short squeeze:
Hedge Funds have increased their short positions to the highest levels in at least a decade 🚨🚨
— Barchart (@Barchart) May 21, 2026
That’s all for today! I may not provide further updates until Tuesday unless circumstances escalate. Here’s hoping for a peaceful long weekend.
