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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

* Limited progress in Congress regarding the coronavirus relief bill
* US is nearing approval of the Covid-19 vaccine
* Sanctions against Turkey are expected from the US for acquiring a Russian defense system after its purchase
* The EU is bracing for a potential no-deal scenario as Brexit talks reach a critical stage
* The UK is closely monitoring adverse reactions to the Pfizer vaccine
* Economic recovery is projected to slow as the US anticipates the vaccine distribution
* The global supply of negative-yield bonds has risen to $18 trillion
* US inflation increased more than expected in November
* US jobless claims surged beyond predictions last week

The inflation outlook based on Treasury yield spreads is steadily increasing. However, the consumer price report for November is anticipated to reaffirm that inflation pressures are still modest. With the US grappling with another wave of COVID-19, the likelihood of a sharp inflation spike in the near future remains low. Yet, the upcoming rollout of vaccines suggests that the economy may strengthen in 2021. Coupled with an incoming Biden administration that will aim to invigorate economic activity, the stage seems set for more robust pricing overall.
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* The Pfizer vaccine faces one last challenge before distribution in the US
* The House votes on a one-week government funding extension as a shutdown approaches
* Uncertainties persist regarding Covid-19 relief legislation compel Facebook to divest Instagram and WhatsApp
* A surge in Covid-19 cases affects South Korea and Japan
* Fitch upgrades China’s growth forecast to 8% for 2021
* The UK economy showed minimal growth in October
* New York state’s pension fund plans to divest from fossil fuels
* Increased demand for bitcoin is expected to impact gold prices, according to JP Morgan predictions
* US job openings unexpectedly increased with a modest rise in October

The depreciation of the US dollar this year has proven beneficial for American investors who hold foreign bond funds. The declining value of the world’s reserve currency is acting as a counterbalance to low or zero yields, translating into capital appreciation.

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* The White House proposes a $916 billion Covid-19 relief bill to Democrats
* US Covid-19 fatalities reach record levels
* The Supreme Court rejects Republican attempts to overturn Biden’s victory in Pennsylvania
* The House passes a defense bill with veto-proof support
* China sees deflation in consumer prices for the first time in 11 years
* JP Morgan anticipates rising demand coupled with reduced supply for equities in 2021
* Small business sentiment in the US fell to a three-month low in November

As Covid-19 vaccines begin their rollout in the West, the outlook for economic recovery strengthens. While several risks remain, for the first time since the onset of the pandemic, there are tangible signs indicating better days ahead.

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* The stimulus package is in jeopardy as McConnell pursues an alternative plan
* Most of California enters lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19
* A 90-year-old woman in the UK becomes the first recipient of the Pfizer vaccine outside clinical trials
* Retired Army General Lloyd Austin is being considered as the next Secretary of Defense reportedly chosen
* Florida police raided the home of a former state Covid-19 data scientist
* UK Prime Minister Johnson makes a last-ditch attempt to salvage the Brexit deal
* Goldman Sachs plans to acquire full ownership of its securities joint venture in China
* Investor sentiment in Germany surges in December due to vaccine optimism
* Eurozone GDP for Q3 is revised slightly downward
* US consumer credit growth slowed in October
* The US 10-year to 3-month Treasury yield curve remains at its highest level since March:

The ongoing bullish trend in the major asset classes continued last week, with foreign high-yield bonds and US real estate investment trusts (REITs) leading in performance, based on a selection of exchange-traded funds over the five trading days concluding on December 4.
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* Negotiators are expected to share details on the pandemic relief package today
* Biden has selected California Attorney General Xavier Becerra for a key health position
* China’s trade surplus expanded to a record level in November
* The pound continues to decline against the US dollar amid faltering Brexit negotiations
* Car sales significantly boosted German industrial output in October
* A slowdown in US payroll growth raises concerns for economic recovery
* The implied inflation forecast in the US Treasury market has risen to its highest level since May 2019:

Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World
Jason Hickel
Review via Commonweal Magazine
In his recent work, *Less is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World*, anthropologist Jason Hickel articulates the central narratives of the degrowth movement in an accessible format. He posits that perennial global expansion is at odds with human and ecological well-being, and he suggests futures devoid of growth need not entail austerity. Abundance can thrive even when growth halts.

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