The upcoming elections in Hungary on April 12 could significantly impact the country’s relationship with the European Union. Many within the EU are hopeful that the nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will be unseated, as his tenure has raised concerns about the future of the 27-nation bloc.
As the longest-serving leader in the EU, Orbán has faced declining approval ratings according to recent polls. His 16-year reign has tested the EU’s governance structures designed to promote peace through economic and political integration following the world wars. His main opponent, Péter Magyar, has pledged to mend Hungary’s ties with the EU if victorious.
The EU currently faces numerous challenges, including the rise of right-wing populism, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, efforts of Russian sabotage, and the shifting landscape of U.S. foreign policy that affects decades of transatlantic collaboration.
However, Orbán’s use of vetoes has weakened the EU’s ability to respond effectively to these challenges. Analysts and lawmakers believe he has leveraged his veto power and a keen understanding of the EU funding mechanisms to consolidate his power while thwarting decision-making processes.
“He entered a club, read the rules, figured out how he can rig the rules, and then started to be a free rider and blackmail all of the other club members,” explained Dániel Hegedűs, deputy director at the Berlin-based Institute for European Politics. “The question is, how long will the club members tolerate it?”
Optimism for Hungary turned into frustration
The sentiment surrounding Hungary was once optimistic. Following the Cold War, Hungary joined the EU along with nine other nations in 2004, marking the bloc’s largest expansion. Jim Townsend, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security, recalls the widespread hope for Hungary’s future.
However, economic downturns paved the way for Orbán’s rise, as he promised to deliver prosperity to both the affluent and less fortunate, as noted by Gábor Scheiring, a former Hungarian lawmaker now teaching at Georgetown University in Qatar. During this time, he solidified alliances with conservative politicians across Europe.
Despite receiving substantial EU funding, Orbán has disparaged the EU, often likening Brussels to the Soviet Union, while resisting calls to reverse the democratic backsliding witnessed under his administration.
From 2014 to 2022, Hungary benefited immensely from EU funds, with Scheiring stating, “Orbán could navigate the EU system really well: get all the money and get away with his political shenanigans.”
The EU’s frustration grew over Orbán’s disregard for judicial independence, media freedom, and efforts to combat corruption. Consequently, in 2022, the EU halted billions in funding to Hungary due to breaches of rule-of-law standards.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Orbán frequently deployed his veto to obstruct support for Kyiv and sanctions against Moscow, drawing attention to his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a recent incident, when Orbán backed out of a December agreement providing Ukraine a loan of 90 billion euros ($104 billion), European Council President Antonio Costa expressed visible frustration, stating, “Nobody can blackmail the European Union institutions.”
Orbán exposes EU ‘design flaw’
A significant issue in the EU is that major decisions require unanimous agreement among member states. Critics argue this has hampered the bloc’s capacity to respond effectively to crises, such as the ongoing war in Gaza.
An internal report from the European Parliament indicates that Orbán has vetoed more proposals than any other leader in the EU’s history, according to German lawmaker Daniel Freund.
“It’s staggering. No one else even comes close,” Freund remarked, labeling this as the “biggest design flaw in the EU that he has exposed.”
Orbán’s repeated vetoes have sparked discussions around reforming the EU’s foundational treaties to mitigate the influence of current and future authoritarian leaders, particularly if he remains in power after the elections.
There are options available for reform, though each comes with limitations. The EU could potentially reduce the number of issues requiring unanimous votes, allowing measures to pass with a simple majority from the 27 national leaders representing approximately two-thirds of the EU’s population.
Hegedűs suggests that the European Commission “could play even harder” by implementing sanctions targeting specific breaches of EU regulations.
Some politicians have proposed invoking Article 7 of the Treaty of the EU, which could revoke Hungary’s voting rights. However, this requires unanimous consent from all other EU leaders, with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico already signaling he would oppose such a measure.
The EU could pressure Hungary in defense funding
The EU possesses additional tools to apply pressure on Hungary. For instance, the European Commission has not approved Hungary’s application to access 16 billion euros ($18.4 billion) aimed at enhancing member states’ defense capabilities. This is in contrast to 18 other nations that have received approval for similar plans.
If Orbán is reelected, the EU might use this funding as leverage to negotiate concessions, such as lifting his veto on the 90 billion euros proposed for Ukraine. However, there is no certainty that he won’t introduce new policies to veto once Hungary receives the funds.
“What will the EU offer in the coming months when the next strategic decision arises, and Orbán blocks again?” Hegedűs questioned.
Orbán inspires a look at how the EU accepts members
Orbán’s actions have led to a critical re-evaluation of how the EU grants membership and oversees existing members. Ongoing negotiations with Moldova, Montenegro, and Ukraine regarding EU accession are increasingly informed by the challenging experience with Hungary.
In February, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos noted that the 12 countries, including Hungary, that joined the EU from 2004 to 2007 “led to a new era of stability for our continent and an impressive level of economic convergence.”
However, without specifically mentioning Hungary, Kos stressed the necessity for safeguards to ensure new members adhere to EU rules. “If countries regress on our fundamentals, such as democracy and rule of law, the safeguards must bite,” she remarked, emphasizing the need for “no Trojan horses.”
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McNeil reported from Brussels.
Key Takeaways
- The upcoming Hungarian elections could reshape the nation’s ties with the EU.
- Orbán has utilized his veto power to influence EU decisions, raising concerns about democracy.
- The EU’s decision-making process relies on unanimous agreement among member states.
- Calls for reform are growing to prevent authoritarian leaders from exploiting EU mechanisms.
- The EU’s funding dependence on Hungary may serve as leverage in negotiations.
- Future EU admissions may be more stringent due to lessons learned from Hungary’s experience.
FAQ
What challenges does Orbán present to the EU?
Orbán has leveraged his veto power to block significant EU decisions, undermining collective action and governance.
How has the EU responded to Orbán’s actions?
The EU has considered freezing funding and reforming its treaties to mitigate the influence of authoritarian leaders.
What might happen if Orbán is reelected?
If reelected, Orbán may continue using his veto power, complicating EU negotiations on various issues, including funding for Ukraine.
What are the implications for new member states?
The EU is rethinking its membership criteria to ensure that new entrants adhere to democratic principles and rule of law.
