“The outbreak of war in Venezuela could spell disaster for the entire continent.”
As tensions rise, the Trump administration appears increasingly inclined to escalate its confrontation with Nicolás Maduro’s government in Venezuela, potentially leading to conflict. With the United States eager to reassert its dominance in its so-called “backyard,” and Cuban American neo-con Marco Rubio taking on key roles within the administration, escalating actions seem inevitable.
Recent events, including the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision to award the Peace Prize to Maria Corina Machado—a controversial figure associated with Venezuela’s far-right—signal a deliberate shift in strategy. Nomination support from Rubio and Mike Waltz propelled Machado to unexpected recognition, revitalizing the once-dim hopes of Venezuela’s opposition movement, as BBC Mundo outlines (translation provided):
As opposition to Maduro’s regime had waned, awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Maria Corina Machado re-ignited aspirations for change.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee recognized Machado “for her tireless efforts to promote the democratic rights of Venezuelans and her commitment to achieving a just, peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.”
Throughout her career, Machado has explored various avenues in her struggle against both Hugo Chávez and Maduro.
She has participated in elections, called for abstention, engaged in stalled negotiations, and urged public protests.
However, crucial elements are often overlooked. Machado has long been an advocate for U.S. interests in Venezuela, with roots tracing back to the failed coup of 2002, just after Chávez initiated vital energy reforms to retain oil revenue within the nation. In the same year, she established her NGO, Sumate, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy, recognized as a covert CIA initiative.
Moreover, she has consistently called for intervention from the U.S. and other nations, including Israel and Argentina, to forcefully oust the Chavista government. Similar to Argentina’s Javier Milei, Machado’s political ascent has been facilitated by organizations linked to the Koch-funded Atlas Network.
If granted control, Machado would likely privatize Venezuela’s oil sector and permit the establishment of U.S. military bases. Her views align with Milei, who has recently authorized U.S. Armed Forces entry for joint military exercises without Congressional consent, potentially violating Argentina’s Constitution.
In a February conversation with Donald Trump Jr., Machado expressed her vision for Venezuela’s economic future:
“We have infinite oil. We will open the markets and privatize all industries; our location is strategic.”
— María Corina Machado selling her country to Donald Trump’s son. pic.twitter.com/H7MxW59DZv
Perhaps most alarmingly, Machado endorses U.S. military actions against unidentified vessels in the Caribbean, resulting in the deaths of many citizens without substantive evidence. Here’s a report on one such incident from October 3:
“This morning, at President Trump’s direction, I ordered a lethal strike on a vessel tied to designated terrorist organizations in USSOUTHCOM’s area of responsibility. Four narco-terrorists aboard were killed… pic.twitter.com/QpNPljFcGn
A Convenient Justification
Recently, Trump sent Congress a memo declaring that members of Latin American drug cartels are now classified as “unlawful combatants” against whom the U.S. is engaged in a “non-international armed conflict.” This term raises eyebrows, as it reflects a pattern of Washington leveraging the War on Drugs to reassert control in its immediate vicinity, reminiscent of its strategies during the War on Terror.
Since August, the Trump administration has deployed warships, aircraft, and over 4,000 troops for anti-drug operations in the Caribbean. Following multiple strikes resulting in civilian casualties, the administration is reportedly contemplating further military actions within Venezuela.
The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to someone who not only supports Israel’s actions in Gaza but also condones U.S. attacks on her countrymen highlights the diminishing significance of this recognition. In a discussion with Bari Weiss, Machado elaborated on her admiration for Trump, who branded her compatriots as terrorists:
“In this episode of the Zionist Axis of She-vil, Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado discusses her reverence for Trump’s stance.” pic.twitter.com/5VfcbA9v0h
So, to what extent is Trump willing to escalate the conflict in Venezuela? Reports suggest that military action is on the table, including possible troop deployments:
Is Trump willing to “do anything”? Could he send an invasion force to Venezuela or initiate missile strikes against Maduro? His team indicates that no options are being ruled out. Plans have been discussed concerning airstrikes against drug targets within Venezuelan territory.
China’s leadership is paying attention:
“China opposes actions that violate the UN Charter and other nations’ sovereignty. We reject the use or threat of force in international relations and denounce external interference in #Venezuela’s internal affairs.”
As reported, Venezuela has garnered support from international allies, including China and Russia, in light of U.S. military threats:
Venezuelan representatives summoned an emergency UNSC meeting to alert of potential U.S. aggression. Russia condemned Washington’s military threats, warning against “irreparable mistakes” that could extend beyond Venezuela.
“Should an attack occur, it could have broader implications for the region,” they stated.
A Potential New Vietnam?
Interestingly, while Venezuela may appear increasingly isolated, the lack of strong declarations from regional leaders raises concerns about a resurgence of U.S. imperialism, as observed by political analyst Fernando Buen Abad:
Despite the gravity of the situation, regional leaders seem reluctant to counteract aggressive foreign actions. The U.S. military operations have already led to civilian casualties, and complacency could pave the way for further intervention throughout Latin America.
Buen Abad also argues that if the U.S. launches any significant offensive against Venezuela, the response will not be as straightforward as anticipated:
They will encounter a populace that is organized and prepared, already engaged in defensive measures. The situation in Venezuela serves as a cautionary tale; if left unaddressed, it poses a significant risk to the entire region.
Venezuela’s Military Readiness
A recent analysis noted that Venezuela has prioritized military expansion and modernization under both Chávez and Maduro, maintaining military spending in an effort to secure the Bolivarian revolution:
The armed forces have grown significantly, focusing on increasing capabilities among the National Guard and the ideological Bolivarian National Militia. Current estimates place Venezuela’s military strength high in regional rankings.
Evidence indicates that Venezuela has developed robust aerial defense and combat capabilities, including cooperation with Iran to enhance their drone program:
Over two decades, Venezuela transitioned from lacking UAVs to establishing a diversified fleet equipped for intelligence, surveillance, and combat operations.
In summary, any U.S. military engagement in Venezuela is likely to incite widespread resistance, potentially destabilizing the region further. The final question remains: what does the U.S. ultimately aim to achieve?
The most plausible objectives include the removal of the Chávez government, the establishment of a friendly regime, and the reaffirmation of American dominance in the Caribbean. However, as noted, such a strategy could provoke a costly protracted conflict:
Venezuela is preparing a defense that could render each U.S. action exceedingly expensive and politically damaging, potentially deterring further escalation.
* Should the situation escalate, it’s probable that the U.S. would initiate targeted strikes on key Venezuelan leadership, with ground support from pro-Machado forces and mercenaries, hoping to destabilize the current regime.
